⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, June 4
Thursday’s MLB slate may be just nine games deep, but there are still plenty of starting pitching matchups to exploit with our best home run predictions today, like Brayan Bello and Ryne Nelson.
Along with plays on an Orioles and Dodgers slugger to fade those right-handed hurlers, my MLB home run picks are rounded out two of the most current red-hot sluggers in baseball, Jake Bauers and Oneil Cruz.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 4
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+550 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.38u | Betts has the most success any of Dodger against Nelson over the biggest sample size |
| Adley Rutschman to hit a home run (+600 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.5u | Brayan Bello allowed five home runs in his first start against Baltimore this year |
| Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+400 via BetMGM) | 0.25u → 1u | Cruz is on pace for the best on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and wRC+ of his career |
| Jake Bauers to hit a home run (+470 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.18u | Bauers' red-hot hitting has spurred Milwaukee to MLB's best record in the last month |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 5.06 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+550)
Mookie Betts is one of four current Dodgers hitters with a double-digit at-bat sample size against Ryne Nelson, but is the only one with five-plus hits off of him. Two of Betts’ hits in those head-to-head matchups have gone for extra bases (one home run), leading to a 1.018 OPS.
Among qualified pitchers, Nelson is one of two with a HR/9 rate greater than 2.0. He allows a home run on 13.5% of fly balls induced, which bodes well for Betts given his 39.3% fly ball rate is on pace to be a career high.
📡 SBR Edge: Betts on a torrid pace
Mookie Betts has only played 28 games this year, but is still on pace for 35 home runs over a full 162-game season, which would tie the second-most in his career (he hit 39 while finishing second in the MVP voting in 2023).
🔥 More home run picks today
Adley Rutschman to hit a home run (+600)
Boston has used an opener for Brayan Bello’s last two outings, and he has responded in his “reliever” role with no earned runs allowed and a 10:1 K:BB ratio over his last 12 innings. But this recent change does not erase the fact that Bello pitched to a 9.68 ERA as a once full-time starter this year, and struck out 12% of batters while owning an 11% walk rate over his first nine starts.
Three of Adley Rutschman’s four hits against Bello have gone for extra bases, including two home runs. His .911 OPS in that split gives me confidence of his chances of going deep against a pitcher who has allowed eight of his 10 home runs to lefties, while the team belted five total off Bello in 3 1/3 innings on April 24.
Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+400)
Oneil Cruz entered yesterday slashing .313/.421/.688 with four home runs and 11 RBIs over his last nine games.
His dramatic improvement against non-fastballs over the last two seasons is a big reason for his early success. In 2025 with 284 plate appearances against non-fastballs, he batted .164 with nine home runs and a .313 slugging percentage, while ranking 23rd-worst in run value. This year, he had totaled 127 plate appearances and was batting .227 with eight homers, a .462 slugging percentage, and the 24th-best run value against such pitches.
Cruz is one of three players to rank in the 95th percentile or higher in hard-hit percentage, barrels, and bat speed, and I’m buying him to finish this series in a big way.
⚾️ NRFI predictions
If you prefer pitchers to get the best of the battle, or just want a little from both words, my best NRFI predictions today have you covered.
Jake Bauers to hit a home run (+470)
Since the start of May 4, Jake Bauers ranks fifth in wRC+ (min. 70 PA).
From 2018-24, Bauers batted .208 with a .361 slugging percentage and a 16 HR/162 game pace. In 2025, Bauers slashed .235/.353/.399 with a 13 HR/162 pace, and a 114 wRC+. Thus far in 2026, Bauers is slashing .277/.360/.486, with a 137wRC+, and is on pace for 29 home runs over a full season.
Bauers faces a Giants pitching staff that owned a collective 7.65 ERA from their starting rotation over the last 13 games (MLB’s worst since May 18), and that was prior to him hitting a three-run home run and Milwaukee scoring eight more runs in a win on Tuesday.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
The first two sluggers in this four-leg home run parlay have homered off of today's opposing starting pitcher, while owning consistent success over a larger sample size. Though Bauers and Cruz are facing Adrian Houser and Kai-Wei Teng for the first time in their careers, they offer great value to this parlay as two of MLB's hottest hitters of late.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+550)
- Adley Rutschman to hit a home run (+600)
- Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+360)
- Jake Bauers to hit a home run (+400)
Best odds: +104550 via bet365 (0.1u -> 104.6u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
It was easy to identify Betts as one of my MLB home run picks today, as he was the slugger with the most success against one the slate's worst pitcher in terms of keeping the ball in the ballpark (Nelson). But I also made sure to balance that prior history with other value plays like Rutschman who has proven he can hit today's pitcher hard, and Bauers and Cruz, who are hitting for power never before seen in much of the early part of their careers.
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