⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Wednesday, April 22
We're treated to some of the most homer-happy pitching leaguewide today, and those vulnerable starters are up against sizzling hitters.
That's why we're targeting Brandon Lowe and Matt Olson as part of our home run predictions today, and especially the latter as he gets set to face Zack Littell, the league leader in homers allowed.
But Aaron Judge leads my MLB home run picks while looking to continue his success against one of Ranger Suarez's most-used pitches.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 22
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge home run (+290 via bet365) | 0.20u β 0.58u | Suarez leans heavily on his sinker, a pitch Judge crushes. |
| Matt Olson home run (+323 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.65u | Littell is an absolute launchpad, with a league-worse seven homers allowed. |
| Brandon Lowe home run (+394 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.79u | Jack Leiter is dreadful against lefties. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.02 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+290)
At first, facing Suarez might seem like an unideal matchup even for the mighty Judge, as the Red Sox hurler has given up a modest 14 home runs in two straight seasons.
But Suarez has achieved that largely through his sinker, a pitch he throws the most in his arsenal at 29.9% of the time, and 26% to right-handed hitters like Judge. It's an offering Judge demolishes, as he's slugging 1.000 against sinkers so far this season, with a 55.6% hard-hit rate. Judge also slugged .775 against sinkers last year
📡 SBR Edge: Clobbering cutters
A cutter is Suarez's most-used secondary pitch against righties, and he throws it 24% of the time. Judge boasts an absurd .429 batting average against cutters.
π₯ More home run picks today
Matt Olson to hit a home run (+323)
Zack Littell is the most inviting starting pitcher in this market, and he's given up a league-worst seven homers across only 19 innings. That translates to an astronomical 3.3 HR/9, contributing greatly to his 7.11 ERA.
Everything about Littell is a league-worst or close to it, including his average exit velocity allowed (94 mph) and expected slugging (.600) that both sit in the bottom 3% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant.
It will not be shocking then to hear he also struggles against lefties to the tune of a 1.038 OPS given up. Which means facing Matt Olson, one of MLB's premier lefty sluggers, will not be a fun time, especially after the Braves' basher has clubbed six homers already with a 95th percentile barrel rate.
Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+394)
Much like Littell, Jack Leiter is a righty who has yet to figure out how to get lefties out. That's a common flaw among middling righties. But it's especially significant here, with Leiter's OPS allowed against righties sitting at .540, and it jumps to .972 against lefties.
And like Olson, Brandon Lowe isn't just any lefty hitter, and particularly early this season. He's surging to begin his debut campaign with the Pittsburgh Pirates, with a career-best .975 OPS on the strength of six long balls across 19 games. His penchant for squaring up weak offerings will play well against Leiter, whose barrel rate allowed rests in just the seventh percentile.
🤑 More MLB props
Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NFRI bets today if you're looking to get a win early.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm riding with two lefty sluggers in ideal matchups, and getting Judge when he's priced even in the vicinity of +300 is difficult to pass on any day.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Aaron Judge home run (+289)
- Matt Olson home run (+323)
- Brandon Lowe home run (+394)
Best odds: +8028 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.61u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-44-0 | -7.73 units β | -28.6% β |
| Home run picks | 3-25-0 | -0.55 units β | -11.3% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-4 | -0.38 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
As always, I stay mostly safe with my unit allocation in this market due to the high volatility. But if there's one hitter today to invest a bit more into, it's Olson.
Littell being a home run factory isn't new, as he also gave up 36 last year, the second-most MLB-wide. Combine that with Olson slugging .774 against fastballs, and it's the perfect spot to take on a smidge more risk.
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