MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Houck to Break Winless Drought?

Check out today's MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday's full schedule.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 16, 2023 8:49 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Thirteen new series begin Friday to round out a solid 15-game Major League Baseball slate that will be played throughout the weekend. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.

Two of the new series beginning Friday involve some of the sport's best rivalries, as the New York Yankees travel to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox, and the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants. The Giants and Cincinnati Reds own the two longest active winning streaks and both surprise teams look to improve their playoff chances in their series openers.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Baltimore Orioles (-120) vs. Chicago Cubs (+100)
Miami Marlins (-180) vs. Washington Nationals (+155)
St. Louis Cardinals (-110) vs. New York Mets (-110)
New York Yankees (-110) vs. Boston Red Sox (-110)
Colorado Rockies (+210) vs. Atlanta Braves (-250)
Toronto Blue Jays (-145) vs. Texas Rangers (+125)
Cincinnati Reds (+165) vs. Houston Astros (-195)
Los Angeles Angels (-155) vs. Kansas City Royals (+135)
Detroit Tigers (OFF) vs. Minnesota Twins
Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-110)
Cleveland Guardians (+120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-140)
Tampa Bay Rays (-115) vs. San Diego Padres (-105)
Philadelphia Phillies (-155) vs. Oakland Athletics (+135)
San Francisco Giants (OFF) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago White Sox (+110) vs. Seattle Mariners (-130)

Friday’s MLB best bets

Player prop: Tylor Megill Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Tanner Houck to record a win (+195 via DraftKings) vs. Yankees ⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Ronald Acuna Jr. to score a run (-218 via Caesars) vs. Rockies ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Run line: Mariners -1.5 vs. White Sox (+165 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐

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Friday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Tylor Megill Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Cardinals (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Tylor Megill is one of the biggest reasons the New York Mets rank 25th in starting pitching ERA, as his 5.14 ERA is largely tied to his -0.4 WAR (second-worst among Mets starters). However, Megill's home ERA is more than four runs better than his road ERA, and the Under has cashed in four of his six starts at Citi Field.

Megill has allowed a more than respectable .221 OBA at home and faces a St. Louis Cardinals lineup with the 22nd-worst batting average in June, which has seen them go an NL-worst 2-10.

This is a three-star play, as St. Louis ranks more towards the middle of the pack at 17th in wRC+ and wOBA this month. But the team is still an NL-worst 12 games under .500 against right-handed starting pitchers, which has us backing Megill confidently despite his poor overall numbers.

DraftKings and Caesars are two of the only sportsbooks that offer this prop, but Caesars is slightly more juiced at -117 for the Under.

Player prop: Tanner Houck to record a win vs. Yankees (+195 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Yankees are 4-5 since Aaron Judge last played on June 3 and have not strung together two consecutive wins in that span. They also have been held to three or fewer runs six times in that span, including a 3-1 victory last Saturday when Domingo German outdueled Tanner Houck.

We expect Houck to get the best of German and the Yankees this time and break an eight-start winless streak. Houck has shown better command of late, as he has issued one or fewer walks in four of his previous six starts after beginning the year with two-plus walks in four of six.

The Yankees have been one of the least patient teams since Judge has been out, walking at the fifth-lowest rate. But they also rank worst in the league in BABIP (.221) since June 4, and a 28th-ranked slugging percentage in that span is not scaring anyone heading into hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

DraftKings is our go-to shop for this wager, as Caesars and PointsBet offer +179 and +185 odds, respectively.

Player prop: Ronald Acuna Jr. to score a run vs. Rockies (-218 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Atlanta Braves' offense has been on fire over the last 14 days, leading the league in batting average, slugging, wOBA, and wRC+. They now face righty Dinelson Lamet, who has been rocked for a 10.38 ERA through 15 appearances (three starts), and his .351 OBA and 2.31 WHIP are among the worst of all pitchers in baseball.

Thus, NL MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. could take matters into his own hands and drive himself in by adding to his top-14 home run total (15). But Acuna has many ways to score, like putting himself in scoring position with swiping bags (his 29 stolen bases are second-most in the league). This is also a four-star play as Acuna is one of five Braves hitters with 12-plus home runs, making him one of the most well-protected leadoff hitters.

These steep -218 odds seem like a steal in comparison to the -270 odds offered at FanDuel. But those that did not want to pay the steep price might find more value for Acuna to score two-plus runs at +150 odds at FanDuel.

Friday’s MLB game picks

Run line: Mariners -1.5 vs. White Sox (+165 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐

The Chicago White Sox are one of four MLB teams at least 10 games under .500 on the road and are 3-7-1 in their 11 road series. They are a respectable 6-4 following an off-day, but Seattle is an even better 7-3 with a day's rest. And while White Sox righty Michael Kopech has recorded six-plus strikeouts in five consecutive games, his K/9 rate is 26% lower on the road than at home.

Seattle counters with rookie Bryan Woo, who we expect to dazzle in his home debut after two road starts. His second start was much better than his first, as the only damage done to him was a two-run home run allowed to Shohei Ohtani. He has life on his fastball, ranking in the 81st percentile in average fastball velocity. And he has held opposing hitters to a .174 xBA and generated a 32.6% whiff rate with his fastball, a pitch he throws 58.6% of the time.

This is a three-star play as Woo's 3.92 xERA shows he has been unlucky compared to his actual 10.80 ERA, though it has just been two starts. However, we would make a moneyline wager a four-star play.

Chicago has gone just 4-6 against the AL West this year, so we are happy to lay the -1.5 runs for optimal value. WynnBet is the only sportsbook offering more than +160 odds on the run line.

MLB best bets made 6/16/2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”