MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Eflin Cruise Against the Royals?

Check out today's MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday's full schedule.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 16, 2023 1:34 PM EDT • 5 minute read

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The first post-All-Star break series conclude Sunday. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds from our best MLB betting sites.

At the start of the day, the National League East is the only division with more than three games separating first and second place. The American League East in particular remains a gauntlet, as all five teams have a positive run differential and are five-plus games over .500. In addition, it houses the only two teams (the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox) that have gone 8-2 or better in their last 10 games.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Sunday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

San Francisco Giants (-145) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+125)
San Diego Padres (+125) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-145)
Chicago White Sox (+150) vs. Atlanta Braves (-175)
Miami Marlins (+145) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-170)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-155)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-105) vs. New York Mets (-115)
Milwaukee Brewers (+110) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-130)
Tampa Bay Rays (-210) vs. Kansas City Royals (+180)
Washington Nationals (+160) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-190)
Boston Red Sox (+125) vs. Chicago Cubs (-145)
Cleveland Guardians (+110) vs. Texas Rangers (-130)
New York Yankees (-215) vs. Colorado Rockies (+185)
Minnesota Twins (-200) vs. Oakland Athletics (+170)
Detroit Tigers (+150) vs. Seattle Mariners (-175)
Houston Astros (-140) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+120)

Sunday’s MLB best bets

Player prop: Zach Eflin Over 17.5 outs recorded (-160 via DraftKings) vs. Royals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Max Muncy Over 0.5 RBIs (+135 via FanDuel) vs. Mets ⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Randal Grichuk Under total bases (OFF) vs. Yankees ⭐⭐⭐
Upset: Tigers ML vs. Mariners (+163 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐

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Sunday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Zach Eflin Over outs recorded (-160 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Zach Eflin has been an innings-eater for the Tampa Bay Rays all season, throwing a team-high 102 1/3 innings, resulting in 10 of 17 quality starts. Eflin has recorded 18-plus outs in 11 of 13 starts, with one of those shorter outings coming against the high-powered Atlanta Braves.

Eflin should have no issues producing a long outing against a Kansas City Royals lineup that ranks dead-last among all AL teams in OBP and wRC+ and has been held to three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 13 losses. Following a doubleheader that taxed the bullpen Saturday and with three games against the high-powered Texas Rangers looming from Monday-Wednesday of next week, Eflin will likely be pushed longer to give the team’s relievers some needed rest.

Laying the steep juice is worth it for this wager, and DraftKings saves bettors some money compared to the -183 odds found at Caesars for the same wager.

Player prop: Max Muncy Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Mets (+135 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Opponents have scored five-plus runs in four of Max Scherzer’s last seven starts, a span in which he has pitched to a poor 5.63 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Uncharacteristically, he has allowed a home run in seven consecutive starts and five in his last two overall.

Thus, there will be opportunities for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ best hitters to drive in runs. We love that Max Muncy hits behind Freddie Freeman, who is slugging .511 with a .838 OPS in 47 career at-bats against Scherzer. Muncy himself has four hits and a .976 OPS in 13 at-bats against Scherzer, and his 19 RBIs in his last 30 games suggest he often has opportunities to drive teammates in, especially since he has only hit .178 with a .307 OBP in that span.

The +135 odds found at FanDuel are a steal, considering the next highest odds for the same wager are the +110 odds at DraftKings.

Player prop: Randal Grichuk Under total bases vs. Yankees (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐

(Editor's note: Randal Grichuk was not in the starting lineup for Sunday's game.)

There have not been many worse New York Yankees killers over the last half-decade than Randal Grichuk. Grichuk’s home run in the series opener on Friday was his 18th against the Bronx Bombers since 2018, tied with Rafael Devers for the most of any opposing player, per Stathead's Katie Sharp.

But Grichuk should find it much tougher sledding against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, even at Coors Field, as he has struck out in 48% of his 23 career at-bats against Cole, with all three hits being singles. Cole has held right-handed batters to a .219 OBA and he has struck out more than one out of every four batters he has faced overall while pitching to a 3.43 FIP.

There are not yet any lines for Grichuk’s total bases, but considering teammate and All-Star Game MVP Elias Diaz has -155 odds at DraftKings to go Under 1.5 total bases, we would pay up to -150 for Grichuk’s Under once it becomes available.

Sunday’s MLB game picks

Upset: Tigers ML vs. Mariners (+163 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐

The Detroit Tigers are unbeaten in their last four road series (3-0-1), despite playing two likely AL playoff teams, the Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers, in that span. That includes winning the first two games of this series against the Seattle Mariners, and they are a great value play as underdogs again, with rookie Reese Olson making his sixth MLB start.

In his four appearances before his short two-inning effort last time out, Olson had pitched to a 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, with a 28.2% K-BB%. He was generating whiffs on more than 50% of his sliders and changeups, and Stuff+ rates him as an upper-tier pitcher with a score of 108. This is a three-star play as Seattle has been outscored by 13 runs in Bryce Miller’s last eight starts, a span in which it has gone 3-5, and opponents have averaged nearly eight runs per game in those Mariners losses.

WynnBet is the only sportsbook offering better than +160 odds to back the underdogs on the moneyline.

MLB best bets made 7/16/2023 at 7:35 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”