MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Can Burnes Dominate the Reds Again?
After having four days off for the All-Star Break festivities, all 30 Major League Baseball teams are back in action to start the weekend. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.
The Atlanta Braves look to remain red-hot after the All-Star Break, as they have won 27 of their last 32 games. At 60-29, Atlanta is tied for the eighth-most pre-All-Star Break wins in National League history, per StatsCentre. And from a betting perspective, the Cincinnati Reds are the most profitable team to this point (+$1528 at $100 wagered per game), while the Kansas City Royals are MLB’s least profitable team (-$2712).
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- San Diego Padres (-115) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-105)
- San Francisco Giants (-125) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+105)
- Miami Marlins (+105) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-125)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (OFF) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) vs. New York Mets (+105)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-120) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+100)
- Chicago White Sox (+210) vs. Atlanta Braves (-250)
- Boston Red Sox (-120) vs. Chicago Cubs (+100)
- Cleveland Guardians (+125) vs. Texas Rangers (-145)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-295) vs. Kansas City Royals (+245)
- Washington Nationals (+145) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-170)
- New York Yankees (-205) vs. Colorado Rockies (+175)
- Houston Astros (+135) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-155)
- Minnesota Twins (OFF) vs. Oakland Athletics
- Detroit Tigers (+160) vs. Seattle Mariners (-190)
Friday’s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Yu Darvish Under 5.5 strikeouts (+100 via PointsBet) vs. Phillies ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Corbin Burnes Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Reds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 total bases (-183 via Caesars) vs. Astros ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Total: Dodgers-Mets Under 8.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Friday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Yu Darvish Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Phillies (+100 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
Yu Darvish has seen his K/9 rate drop each of the last four full seasons, and this year’s 9.4 K/9 rate parallels the previous year’s career-worst number of 9.1.
The San Diego Padres starter looked rusty in his first start back against the New York Mets after having his turn in the rotation skipped twice while he dealt with a virus. Darvish labored through five innings and allowed three walks (his second-most in 11 starts), and should again be rusty after having six days off since his last start. When Darvish has six-plus days of rest, he has a 10.3 K/9 rate over 340 1/3 innings compared to 10.8 and 10.9 K/9 with four or five days’ rest.
Darvish’s O/U for earned runs is 3.5, and he has -225 odds not to record a win at DraftKings, which suggests a rough outing could be in order. This is a three-star play, as Darvish has struck out six-plus batters in three of seven road starts this year and the Philadelphia Phillies rank in the top half of the league in the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in home games.
PointsBet is the only sportsbook offering plus-money odds to back the Under, making it our go-to shop.
Player prop: Corbin Burnes Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Reds (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After Corbin Burnes held the Cincinnati Reds hitless through four innings in his last start, Reds manager David Bell said “the first three innings was probably the best stuff we’ve seen all year.”
Stuff+ agrees as Burnes is ranked fourth among all qualified pitchers, with his changeup being the best in the sport. That is why we are buying Burnes as a big buy-low candidate for the second half, considering he has pitched to a 4.33 ERA over his last seven starts. But optimists would say that his ERA is 3.30 in that span if you remove one blowup performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Furthermore, Burnes’ control issues (two-plus walks in four straight starts) figure to see positive regression, as his walk rates the last two seasons were as much as 41% lower than this year’s 8.8% walk rate.
We are getting slightly better value making this wager at DraftKings than at Caesars, as the latter offers -135 odds to back the Under.
Player prop: Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 total bases vs. Angels (-183 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Shohei Ohtani appears to be over the blister issues that cut his last start short, which is bad news for Houston Astros All-Star Kyle Tucker. Tucker is 2-for-15 with a 40% strikeout rate against Ohtani, and the righty has held left-handed batters to a .198 OBA this season. Ohtani struck out 22 batters in two combined starts before his blister issues, so we are not concerned that his OBA has raised 98 points since April 17.
This is a confident four-star play, as Tucker is in his worse hitting split, slashing .261/.344/.437 against right-handed pitchers compared to a .347/.412/.545 slash line against southpaws. Caesars’ -183 odds are slightly better than the -190 found at DraftKings for the same wager.
Friday’s MLB game picks
Total: Dodgers-Mets Under 8.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The New York Mets are 10 games under .500 (10-20) against left-handed pitchers compared to four games over .500 against righties (32-28). They rank 27th in BABIP and 20th in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching, which has us encouraged about Julio Urias’ chances for success, given that the Los Angeles Dodgers starter has three quality starts in his last six outings.
And we expect more brilliance at Citi Field from Justin Verlander, as he has a 2.19 ERA (seventh-best in the majors) and 1.08 GO/AO ratio at home versus a 5.18 ERA and 0.46 GO/AO ratio on the road.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook not juiced to -115 or higher to back the Under.
MLB best bets made 7/14/2023 at 7:48 a.m. ET.
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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