⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Monday, March 30
After a rough first couple of days, my best MLB prop bets finished the week strong, going 4-2 during the weekend. I'm looking to carry that momentum into the new week with my MLB player props today.
We have a quartet of strikeout props on the ledger today, and they span from the first game of the day - Twins vs. Royals at 4:10 p.m. ET - to one of the late games, as NL West foes square off at 9:40 p.m. ET. That means you can stay locked in and be invested in these bets all day.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for March 30
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson Over 3.5 strikeouts (-108 via FanDuel) | 1u β 1.93u | Not a strikeout artist, and in a tough matchup, but this total is too low |
| Edward Cabrera Under 6.5 strikeouts (+118 via Caesars) | 1u β 2.18u | Good matchup but a total this high is reserved for true K machines |
| Nick Martinez Under 3.5 strikeouts (+126 via DraftKings) | 1u β 2.26u | Managed only 6.3 K/9 last season |
| Landon Roupp Under 4.5 strikeouts (-130 via bet365) | 1u β 1.77u | Has dominated in minors but struggled to rack up Ks in MLB |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 4.14 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Edward Cabrera Under 6.5 strikeouts (+118)
This is a bit of a scary one, because the Los Angeles Angels strike out for fun, but I think this total is still one K too many for Edward Cabrera in his Chicago Cubs debut.
He's projected for just 5.4 punchouts over 5.46 innings, so it's not as if the innings projection is skewing things. Based on those numbers, we're getting roughly 54% +EV on this bet. I'd play this to odds as short as +100, and we're already seeing Pinnacle pricing this Under at -115.
📡 SBR Edge: Will Cabrera have shorter leash with new team?
The oft-injured Cabrera joined the Cubs this offseason, and I could see his new team being more conservative with his workload early, as they have World Series aspirations, while his old team, the Miami Marlins, most certainly did not.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Simeon Woods Richardson Over 3.5 strikeouts (-108)
By no means does Simeon Woods Richardson rack up strikeouts in bunches, and the Kansas City Royals are notoriously tough on opposing pitchers. However, this total is simply too low, and we're getting roughly 23% +EV on this bet based on Woods Richardson's projection.
I bet on an Over in a similar situation this past weekend, successfully backing Eduardo Rodriguez to go Over 3.5 strikeouts against the Dodgers. These matchups are scary, but as a pitcher who managed 8.65 K/9 last season, Woods Richardson is a good bet to go Over 3.5.
Landon Roupp Under 4.5 strikeouts (-130)
I kept tabs on Landon Roupp in fantasy baseball last year, and I'm doing the same to start this season. He's dominated in the minors, and his season-long projections are once again pretty solid. However, while he's struck out opposing hitters for fun in various minor-league levels, he's failed to do the same in the majors.
Last season, Roupp struck out only 8.61 per nine, and he's projected to punch out only 3.59 tonight against the San Diego Padres. Based on that projection, we're getting roughly 25% +EV. Pinnacle already has this priced at -167, a sign of where these odds could be headed.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
As I did with my home run predictions, I'm simply combining all four of my best bets here into one parlay. The total odds of +1374 represent a 6.78% implied probability, so you could bet more than 0.08 units, but that's what I'm wagering on these early in the season. As the season progresses, I may increase my wager on my player props parlay to 0.2 units.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Simeon Woods Richardson Over 3.5 strikeouts (-108)
- Edward Cabrera Under 6.5 strikeouts (+104)
- Nick Martinez Under 3.5 strikeouts (+124)
- Landon Roupp Under 4.5 strikeouts (-148)
Best odds: +1374 via FanDuel (0.08u -> 1.18u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-28 | -6.94 units β | -41.4% β |
| Strikeouts | 3-5 | -2.02 units β | -29.8% β |
| Parlays | 1-5 | +0.82 units β | +171.8% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (March 30)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV based on more than one projection model. I'm still tinkering with which projection models I want to use for this season, but I have two that are my most trustworthy now.
If a bet is verified by only one projection model, is less than 20% +EV, or is in a market I'm less comfortable betting a full unit on, I'll drop my wager to 0.4 units.
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