⚾ Angels vs. Yankees Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 15)

A series that's featured offensive eruptions continues tonight in New York, and the Angels vs. Yankees win probability shows the home side holds a decided edge.

The Yankees are getting a 63% win probability at the prediction market apps, though leaning on them that heavily feels unsafe given the shakiness we've seen from Luis Gil. He'll start for the Yankees tonight against Jack Kochanowicz, and the latter is showing early improvement through his changeup.

Is that sustainable at the always fertile homer grounds of Yankee Stadium? The Angels offer an intriguing upset possibility if Kochanowicz continues to find his footing.

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🏆 Who will win Angels vs. Yankees? Live MLB win probability

The Yankees have been the favorites since this market opened on Sunday, though their advantage has meandered to varying levels amid nearly $85,000 in trading.

They were receiving a 62% win probability to start before going down to 57.1%. Then that percentage climbed back up to 64% after the Bronx Bombers won an 11-10 shootout to open the three-game series, and it's stayed in that general neighborhood since.

Meanwhile, the Angels' win probability peaked at 42% on Monday morning. But it's been slowly declining and hit a low of 35.8% late last night. Yes, there's a talent deficiency on their roster compared to the Yankees. But that hasn't stopped the Angels from staying with New York to open the series, and then incredibly belting five home runs while taking the second game 7-1.

That makes the wide split here a little perplexing. The Angels' offense will likely regress, but right now the team boasts an abundance of power while sitting on the league's second-most home runs (26), a total that includes seven in this series alone, and three from the sizzling Mike Trout.

My prediction: Angels win. Gil offers the perfect matchup for the Angels as they look to continue their power-hitting ways. His opening start of the season was a dud with three earned runs and three walks across just four innings. His command has been spotty at best, with a 13.5% walk rate last year that sat in the bottom 2% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Angels vs. Yankees?

Yankees home run machine Aaron Judge will usually lead this market for his team, and today is no exception after over $11,500 in trading volume. Judge is getting the highest probability to go deep at 30%, with Giancarlo Stanton at 23%.

The Yankees will be trying to bring back the generous homer charity ways of Kochanowicz, who gave up 21 bombs last year across only 111 innings, leading to a bloated HR/9 of 1.7. Put him in Yankee Stadium, which is eternally in launchpad mode and gave up 19% more home runs than the average venue last year, and it seems so very inviting to roll with any of the Yankees' sluggers as a prediction here.

But an increased use of his changeup means we could be seeing a different, and possibly improved, version of Kochanowicz this season. He's been throwing it 27.3% of the time early this season as opposed to 14% last year, and opponents are batting just .176 against that offering.

My prediction: Jo Adell to hit a home run. Adell's white-hot start includes batting .315, and his nearly unmatched bat speed sets him up well to do damage against Gil, who gave up an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph last year (16th percentile). For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Andrew Brennan.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Angels vs. Yankees?

There's been a mountain of scoring in this series, including a combined 29 runs, five of which have come during the first inning. The Angels incredibly even clubbed three straight homers in the opening frame last night.

The Angels offer the perfect ingredients to be a high YRFI team. Their slugging ways have resulted in the league's 10th-best OPS, and they've scored the sixth-most runs. Yet the team's warts, and what will ultimately hold it back, come from its 21st-ranked pitching staff with a 4.25 ERA. Consequently, the Angels are tied for the fourth-best YRFI record at 11-7, and the Yankees are right behind them at 10-7.

Maybe Kochanowicz's improvements are real and sustainable, but he faces a significant test against the Yankees' gauntlet lineup tonight. That comes after he was far worse on the road last year, posting an .850 OPS allowed compared to a .910 at home, and a 6.17 ERA next to 7.42 as the visitor.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. In addition to the high-flying ways of both offenses, there's also Gil's inability to miss bats after posting a 6.5 K/9 last year. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Angels vs. Yankees win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Angels vs. Yankees

• Date: Wednesday, April 15
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (New York)
• TV: Prime Video
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Angels starter: Jack Kochanowicz (2-0, 3.24 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Luis Gil (0-1, 6.75 ERA)