WM Phoenix Open Long Shot Picks & Sleepers: 3 Picks to Win With Odds Longer Than +5500

We enter this week’s WM Phoenix Open following a brilliant performance by Justin Rose, who ran away with the Farmers Insurance Open last weekend. This week, the betting favorite Scottie Scheffler (+230) returns after sitting out the Farmers Insurance Open. I am breaking down my WM Phoenix long shot picks and who has value entering this week's tournament. 

This year’s field includes two, two-time tournament winners Brooks Koepka (+5500) and Hideki Matsuyama (+2800), while defending champion Thomas Detry is also in the mix. The WM Phoenix Open is annually hosted at TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Ariz.

🎯 WM Phoenix Open long shots to bet

Here are our best long shot golf picks for WM Phoenix Open based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.

🐎 WM Phoenix Open sleeper picks

Nick Taylor (+5500)

Nick Taylor often is overlooked by our best sports betting sites, but this week, I don't believe he should be. Taylor has started his 2026 season in great form. He finished T-13 in the season-opening Sony Open and tied for 27th in The Americana Express two weeks ago. Taylor also won this event two years ago and has tasted victory at TPC Scottsdale.

The last two winners of this event were both +10000 or longer. A value pick could win again this year.

Our Dustin Saracini is also backing Nick Taylor in his WM Phoenix Open Picks & Outright Odds.

Min Woo Lee (+7000)

Min Woo Lee has played one tournament this season, finishing T-38 at The American Express. He also finished T-12 at last year’s WM Phoenix Open and has had success at TPC Scottsdale.

Distance is an advantage here, and Lee has plenty of it. He’s long off the tee without sacrificing accuracy, allowing him to attack drivable par 4s and create scoring chances on the par 5s. Lee performs well in events where scoring is required. The WM Phoenix Open often becomes a birdie-fest, and Lee’s aggressive style and ability to go low make him a strong fit for this setup.

Andrew Novak (+10000)

Andrew Novak enters the WM Phoenix Open coming off a fantastic performance last weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he finished T7. He will need to carry that form into the WM Phoenix Open.

Confidence and rhythm from a top finish can carry over, especially early in the season. TPC Scottsdale rewards accuracy off the tee and solid approach shots. Novak’s game is built on accuracy, giving him a solid chance to attack the drivable par 4s and score well on the par 5s. With the price of +10000, it is worth a play.

Is there value on Scottie Scheffler?

Scottie Scheffler enters the WM Phoenix Open as the +230 betting favorite. The second-shortest odds are +1700 with Xander Schauffele. In my opinion, there is no value in betting a +230 in golf. There are too many variables in golf to back someone with only +230 odds. 

Scheffler has won seven of his last 22 events going back to last year. If his odds were +500 or longer, I would consider backing him, but at +230, there’s just no value in the golf betting world. We also haven’t seen a winner with odds shorter than +1200 in over 10 years. The last two winners of this event were +10000 or longer, and I would rather take a risk on a long shot play than bet +230 to win this event.

Our Esten McLaren wrote in full detail 2026 WM Phoenix Open Odds to help you find value on the board.

📜 WM Phoenix Open betting history

Here are the recent winners of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com:

⛳ WM Phoenix Open tournament info tournament info 2026

• Where: TPC Scottsdale (Scottsdale, Ariz.)
• When: Thursday, Feb. 5 - Sunday, Feb. 8
• Field: 121
• Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+240 via BetMGM)
• Defending champion: Thomas Detry
• Purse: $9.6 million
• FedEx Cup points: 500