⛳ U.S. Open Second-Round Leader Prediction & Odds: Who Leads After Round 2 at Shinnecock Hills?

Shinnecock Hills has already shown its teeth on Day 1, and navigating this historic, windy venue only gets more difficult as the week goes on. Our U.S. Open second-round leader predictions look at elite ball-strikers who were living in the fairway on Day 1. Yes, Wyndham Clark torched the competition through 16 holes on Thursday (6-under), but we're looking elsewhere in Round 2.

Here are three sharp targets to top the U.S. Open odds leaderboard heading into the weekend. 

💰 U.S. Open second-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 36-hole leader of the U.S. Open.

⛳ Who'll lead the U.S. Open after Round 2?

Ludvig Aberg (+2700)

• Friday tee time: 1:47 p.m.
• Score after Round 1: 69 (T-9)

Aberg was absolutely dialed in on Thursday, carding a 1-under 69. On a day when conditions were less than favorable (to put it mildly), the young Swede was able to navigate Shinnecock nearly flawlessly and looked pretty comfortable with a putter in his hand. Shinnecock’s fairways are deceptively wide but brutally punishing if missed, and Aberg’s ability to consistently find the short grass gave him an advantage all day.

Going out in the calmer, softer afternoon conditions on Friday, he'll have the opportunity to attack pins that the morning wave won't even be able to look at.

Rory McIlroy (+1900)

• Friday tee time: 1:47 p.m.
• Score after Round 1: 69 (T-9)

When McIlroy finds his rhythm early in a major, he has a unique ability to hit top gear and distance himself from the field. He just wouldn't go away on Thursday, either, firing a 1-under 69, with plenty of par-saving putts from 8-to-12 feet. His putter - and his confident stroke - were on full display. Let's ride that high heading into Round 2.

Jon Rahm (+900)

• Friday tee time: 8:14 a.m.
• Score after Round 1: DNF (T-2)

Because of the fog delay, Rahm will finish his final five holes of Round 1 on Friday morning and immediately transition into his Round 2 tee time at 8:14 a.m. alongside Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose. Rahm was playing a bogey-free round of golf before being shut down - I'd price him closer to +700 here, so let's run with the value while we can.

⛅ What to consider when betting on the second-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Round 1 scoreboard
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The second-round leader market tends to be far more volatile than the outright tournament market. Because you're only betting on an 18-hole sample rather than 72 holes, favorites often carry longer odds while long shots see their prices shorten slightly.

Golfers with early tee times are usually worth a closer look, as they often benefit from softer course conditions, cleaner fairways, and smoother greens before the field has a chance to wear down the course. That said, weather can quickly change the equation, so it's important to monitor forecasts and identify players who may avoid the worst wind, rain, or other adverse conditions.

When evaluating first-round leader candidates, I also place a greater emphasis on a golfer's most recent form, narrowing the performance window rather than relying on long-term results.

☀️ Friday's weather at Shinnecock Hills

Weather from Accuweather:

📊 U.S. Open second-round leader odds

Here are the U.S. Open second-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.