⛳ U.S. Open First-Round Leader Prediction & Odds: Who Leads After Round 1 at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club?

The U.S. Open first-round leader prediction and odds take center stage as the PGA Tour heads to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York.

The tournament runs from June 11–14, 2026, and Shinnecock Hills’ demanding layout places a premium on elite ball-striking, precision off the tee, and disciplined approach play from the opening round. Unlike many regular PGA Tour venues, players must navigate a classic major championship test featuring firm fairways, punishing rough, and fast, undulating greens, creating real opportunities for early separation on the leaderboard. With a loaded field assembled for one of golf’s toughest tests, the first-round leader market offers plenty of value.

Let's break down my first-round leader predictions for the U.S. Open.

💰 U.S. Open first-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the U.S. Open.

⛳ Who'll lead the U.S. Open after Round 1?

Rory McIlroy (+1600)

Rory McIlroy will be a strong candidate to be the first-round leader at the U.S. Open due to his strong driving distance, aggressive scoring ability, and proven success in major championship opening rounds. At a demanding venue like Shinnecock Hills, his ability to gain strokes off the tee can immediately separate him from the field.

If his iron play is sharp and he finds early rhythm on the greens, he can post a low opening score. McIlroy thrives when conditions are firm and fast, making a fast start very realistic at the U.S. Open setup plays.

Jon Rahm (+4500)

Jon Rahm is a strong candidate to be the first-round leader at the U.S. Open thanks to his superior ball-striking, controlled power, and consistency in major championship conditions. At a demanding setup like Shinnecock Hills, his ability to keep the ball in play and attack accessible pins gives him an early scoring edge.

Rahm’s iron play is among the best in the world, and when he starts well he often builds momentum quickly. If he avoids early mistakes and converts birdie chances, he has the game to post one of the lowest opening rounds.

Sam Burns (+4000)

Sam Burns is a legitimate first-round leader threat at the U.S. Open because of his elite putting and ability to convert birdie chances when he gets hot early. At a demanding setup like Shinnecock Hills, his strong iron play can still generate enough opportunities if he keeps the ball in play off the tee.

Burns has shown he can go low in any given round when the putter gets rolling, which is crucial in first-round leader markets. If he finds early rhythm and capitalizes on scoring chances, he can quickly separate from the field.

📊 Betting insights

Information provided by BetMGM sportsbook.

⛅ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weatherto be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

Thursday's weather at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club

Weather from Accuweather:

📊 U.S. Open first-round leader odds

Here are the U.S. Open first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.