2024 U.S. Open Picks, Predictions & Top Finishes: Target DeChambeau (+2000) and Kim (+1100)
The third major of the season is already upon us and we head to North Carolina and one of golf’s oldest and purest tests in Pinehurst No. 2 for our U.S. Open picks and predictions based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.
Recent reconstruction brings us back to the type of course that Donald Ross spent his life cultivating, with little rough and sandy waste areas where a wayward lie could be teed up perfectly for you or cause you to double bogey.
The last time the U.S. Open was played here, Martin Kaymer ran away from the field shooting an incredible nine under par - one of only three golfers to survive the weekend under par - in an 8-stroke victory. It will be an immense challenge around the green with the elevated putting surfaces playing at extreme speeds and that’s if you manage to find the fairway.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the resounding betting favorite, but we're looking for better value with our U.S. Open picks and predictions.
U.S. Open picks
Odds from our best sports betting sites (confidence rating based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Pick to win: Bryson DeChambeau (+2000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 5 pick: Tom Kim (+1100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Top 10 pick: Ludvig Aberg (+210 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 20 pick: Dean Burmester (+300 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Top 30 pick: Tom McKibbin (+333 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 40 pick: Mac Meissner (+240 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
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Pinehurst No. 2 course info
- Par: 70
- Length: 7,543 yds
- Greens: Bermuda (fast)
- Architect: Donald Ross (1907), Bill Coore/Ben Crenshaw (2011 redesign)
With the firmness that this course plays at, it allows shorter, but accurate, hitters to be able to play longer irons and run them up onto the greens. Still, distance should be taken into consideration as a separator if you’re looking for tie-breakers with your picks.
The greens will be nearly impossible to hold given the lightning-fast speed, so I’m keying in on elite ball strikers and tee-to-green players. I also think around-the-green play and putting are key metrics, which you could say is almost the entire game, but it’s a major and one of the toughest courses the world has to offer.
It’s going to take every club in the bag.
U.S. Open pick to win
Bryson DeChambeau ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If we’re all being honest with ourselves, it should be Scottie Scheffler in this spot for every tournament he plays in. But not only is that boring, the odds on Scheffler are astronomically bad. If you want to get a good price on Scottie, your best bet (no pun intended) is to live bet sometime Thursday or Friday when if his price drops should another golfer surge out to an early lead.
As for Bryson, there’s no debate in his talent. Heavily in contention at Augusta and providing the best Sunday fireworks at the PGA Championship. U.S. Open setups feel tailor-made to his game, and he won the event in 2020.
He has the best length in the field and his ball striking has been elite. As long as his around-the-green play and putting stay true to his recent form, you’re hard-pressed to not see him in contention on Sunday. BetMGM has the best odds currently with the rest of the market at +1800.
Best odds: +2000 via BetMGM
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U.S. Open top finishes
Top 5: Tom Kim ⭐⭐⭐
This is the pick I’m honestly the least confident in, mainly because Kim doesn’t carry the length the rest of the field does. However, he does have extreme accuracy and ranks seventh in my full-field trend table with massive gains in his game.
Kim has improved on virtually every metric possible in his game, has made eight straight cuts, and logged a top 5 finish at the RBC Canadian Open just two weeks ago.
Best odds: +1100 via DraftKings
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Top 10: Ludvig Aberg ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
A shocking missed cut from the PGA Championship, I have no problem returning to the well with the silky Swede. A return to the top 5 at a brutal Muirfield Village last week bolstered confidence that he is indeed “back” after the missed cut at Valhalla.
Aberg is a golfer built in a lab and can usually be classified as a perfect fit for almost any golf course he plays. His around-the-green game is the only concern.
Best odds: +210 via FanDuel
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Top 20: Dean Burmester ⭐⭐⭐
Fresh off a 12th place finish at the PGA Championship, the LIV Golf product has supreme length off the tee and is top 10 in the field in tee-to-green, ball striking, approach, and around-the-green play. His putter and accuracy will determine how high he can climb on the leaderboard.
Best odds: +300 via BetMGM
Top 30: Tom McKibbin ⭐⭐⭐⭐
A name that many may not have heard before, McKibbin hails from Northern Ireland and is a DP World Tour staple. A young and rising golfer, McKibbin earned his spot in the field by qualifying and has made nine of 10 cuts in 2024 on the DP World Tour, logging four top 10s.
He’s not as long as some of the pure bombers, but he’s still in the top third of the field paired with elite accuracy and ball striking.
Best odds: +333 via bet365
Top 40: Mac Meissner ⭐⭐⭐
The markets have tightened considerably when it comes to top 40 finishes, so there isn’t a screaming value this week when we normally will see at least one outlier. Meissner is a boom-or-bust golfer, but compared to the field, he carries elite accuracy and is in the top third in tee to green, ball striking, and around-the-green play.
Meissner also ranks in the top third of PGA Tour players in bogey avoidance, a critical component at Pinehurst No. 2 and any major.
Best odds: +240 via Caesars
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U.S. Open betting picks
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How to bet on golf
Betting on golf involves understanding the various types of bets available and how to assess player performance. First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets commonly offered in golf, including outright winner bets, each-way bets (which cover both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups between two players, and proposition bets on specific events within a tournament, such as hole-in-one occurrences or individual player performances on certain holes.
Once you've identified the types of bets you're interested in, research the players, course conditions, recent form, and other relevant factors that could influence outcomes. Pay attention to factors like player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may affect a player's performance.
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