PGA Championship First-Round Leader Odds & Predictions: Who'll Lead After Round 1?

The 2025 PGA Championship begins tomorrow morning with the first tee times at 7 a.m. ET. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, co-favorites to win the tournament, are also the betting favorites by the PGA Championship first-round leader odds as we make our best predictions for the first 18 holes at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte.

Read to the bottom to see our AI first-round leader prediction!

⏰ See the full PGA Championship tee times here.

📊 PGA Championship first-round leader odds

The 2025 PGA Championship first-round leader odds are from our best golf betting sites and update in real time. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the favorites in this market with +1600 odds, representing an implied win probability of 5.88% and returning a profit of $160 on a winning $10 bet.

Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.

💭 What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performances entering Thursday's first round.

🌤️ Thursday's weather at Quail Hollow Club

The weather for the 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C., is expected to be favorable, particularly on Thursday, May 15, when the tournament begins.

Thursday forecast

• Conditions: Partly sunny and humid
• High Temperature: 83°F (28°C)
• Low Temperature: 67°F (20°C)
• Wind: Light to moderate
• Precipitation: No significant rain expected

Earlier in the week, Charlotte experienced rain and storms, leading to the cancellation of Monday's practice round for spectators due to inclement weather. However, the weather is expected to improve as the tournament progresses, providing optimal conditions for players and fans alike.

The recent rainfall may result in softer course conditions, potentially affecting play strategies and scoring. Players who excel in such conditions might find an advantage during the early rounds.

💰 PGA Championship 18-hole leader predictions

As part of our golf picks for 2025's second major, here are my favorite PGA Championship first-round leader predictions for Thursday at Quail Hollow Club. Use our player prop odds tool to get the latest and best odds for the golfer(s) of your choice.

Joaquin Niemann

👉 Best odds: +4000 via FanDuel ($10 pays $400)

Niemann played the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club three times before departing to the LIV Series with a best result of T-18 in 2021 as his final showing at the venue. The Chilean star has three victories on the LIV Series this year, and he won the Asian Tour's PIF Saudi International in December.

He ranks among the field leaders in driving distance, and his 1.64 strokes gained: tee-to-green rank 12th among this week's 156 competitors.

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Min Woo Lee

👉 Best odds: +7000 via FanDuel ($10 pays $700)

Lee claimed his first PGA Tour victory about a month-and-a-half ago and the Australian star will now compete in a 15th straight major. He's missed just four cuts in that time with a top finish of T-5 in the 2023 U.S. Open. His best result in the PGA Championship was a T-18 two years ago.

Lee can bomb it off the tee and won't face much penalty for inaccuracy, especially with his 8:11 a.m. ET tee time when the wind will be slightly lighter and while the course still plays softer following the rain early in the week. I expect him to play free-and-easy golf in the morning wave and to set the early pace.

Dean Burmester

👉 Best odds: +11000 via bet365 ($10 pays $1,100)

Burmester has just two top 10 finishes on the LIV Series this year, but he's been absolutely crushing the golf ball, and he finished in the top 20 of two of three majors played last year. The South African ranks behind only Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy in average driving distance over everyone's last 16 measured rounds. He's also gained strokes in every other key metric during that time.

Burmester will tee off early Thursday afternoon (1:09 p.m. ET) with Patrick Rodgers and Nick Taylor. The course should be playing firm and fast at that time following the morning Sunday and with help from afternoon wind gusts.

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⏰ ChatGPT's PGA Championship first-round leader prediction

I asked ChatGPT, a popular large language model chatbot from OpenAI for its best PGA Championship first-round leader prediction. Please note that ChatGPT isn't an experienced sports bettor and this recommendation should be used only as additional information and insights to help inform decisions.

🏌️‍♂️ First-round leader pick: Rory McIlroy (+1600)

• Tee Time: 8:22 a.m. ET (morning wave)
• Why McIlroy?
• Course record: McIlroy has four wins at Quail Hollow and is a course favorite
• Strong start potential: His early tee time means he’ll play in calmer, less challenging conditions before winds pick up in the afternoon
• Form: McIlroy comes into this event in great shape, recently winning the Masters and demonstrating his ability to handle major conditions

📈 Other considerations:

• Scottie Scheffler (+1600): World No. 1 and a consistent major performer
• Bryson DeChambeau (+2200): Teeing off in the afternoon, but his power game remains a huge asset at Quail Hollow
• Xander Schauffele (+3500): Defending champion, great form

McIlroy’s early tee time, combined with his past success at Quail Hollow, gives him an edge for Day 1.

🏆 2025 PGA Championship info

📅 When: Thursday, May 15 - Sunday, May 18
⛳ Where: Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, N.C,
📺 How to watch: ESPN and CBS
🏆 Defending champion: Xander Schauffele
💰 Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+450 via bet365)

👀 First-round leader betting insights

Here is how the betting action is coming in on the PGA Championship's first-round leader at BetMGM:

🔮 PGA Championship expert picks

• Updated PGA Championship odds
• PGA Championship first-round leader odds
• PGA Championship power rankings
• PGA Championship AI predictions
• PGA Championship long shots and sleeper picks
• Who'll win the PGA Championship?

⛳ Golf betting odds pages

🏌️Best golf betting sites for the 2025 PGA Championship

Looking to bet on the PGA Championship? Here are our top-rated best golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos.

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