Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions from Thursday's Sports Slate

We've shopped the odds and lines at our best sportsbooks in search of today's best bets for Thursday, Feb. 23. We've got college basketball, NHL, and NBA action on tap for Thursday, and we also look ahead to this weekend's soccer action and to the MLB season with some home run futures.

Let's look at some of our favorite bets for Thursday and beyond.

Read on for today's best bets for Thursday, Feb. 23, based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Thursday's best bets

• College basketball: Penn State-Ohio State Over 142 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• NHL: Calgary Flames ML (+118 via FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers -2 (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Denver Nuggets ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• MLB: Manny Machado to lead MLB in home runs (+10000 via BetMGM)
• Soccer: Manchester City -2 (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Bournemouth ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thursday's college basketball best bet

Penn State vs. Ohio State Over 142 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a meeting of the 11th and 13th-ranked Big Ten teams in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom). And with each team reeling (the two are a combined 2-10 in February), we expect little attention to detail on the defensive end. 

Penn State enters this game on a two-game winning streak on the backs of an offense that has shot 22-for-54 (40.7%) from 3-point range. However, even during a four-game losing streak, the Nittany Lions connected on better than 40% of its 3-point attempts. Head coach Micah Shrewsberry attempts to hide his team’s defensive efficiencies with low-possession games (Penn State ranks 297th nationally in adjusted tempo). Still, the Nittany Lions do not sacrifice anything on the offensive end with that style, ranking tops in Big Ten play in effective field goal percentage (56.3%).

This is a four-star play as we are not worried about Penn State’s ability to score, and Ohio State still ranks 28th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency despite losing 13 of its last 14 games

College basketball best bets made by Mike Spector.

Check out all of our top college basketball picks, as well as our 2023 March Madness odds and 2023 Wooden Award odds.

Thursday's NHL best bet

Flames ML vs. Golden Knights (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Consistency has been elusive for the Flames, which is why they're on the outside of the Western Conference playoff picture. But the underlying metrics are strong – hence my pick.

Calgary has been one of the premier possession teams in the league, ranking second in score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempt percentage and expected goals percentage during five-on-five play. And the Flames have outshot opponents by at least 10 in seven straight games.

The Flames outshot the Coyotes 51-14 in Wednesday's 6-3 win at Arizona, and are a solid 3-2-1 on the second half of a back-to-back.

The Golden Knights have surged to the top of the Pacific Division with a 5-0-2 record in the past seven games – but they've shown vulnerability despite their recent hot spell. They're just 6-5-3 since captain Mark Stone was sidelined, and their top two goaltenders are out.

That means Laurent Brossoit is expected to make his second NHL start of the season – and he could find himself unbearably busy against a surging Flames offense. 

FanDuel has the best Moneyline price for a Flames upset, with Calgary at +118, which is a little more appealing than the +115 at most of the other top-rated sportsbooks. DraftKings is lagging behind at +110.

NHL best bets made by Scott Cullen.

Check out all of our top NHL picks, as well as our 2023 Stanley Cup odds.

Thursday's NBA best bet

Cavaliers -2 vs. Nuggets (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

On the surface, betting on the fourth-best team in the East to defeat the Western Conference front-runner seems a bit foolish, especially considering how stacked the West is. But Cleveland has been dominant at home, and might just be suited to handle Jokic and Co.

Let’s start with the value of home court. The Cavaliers are 25-6 when playing inside Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season. They're tied for the best cover rate in the league at home, going 20-10-1 against the spread in Cleveland this season.

This is more than based on trends, however. Jokic might be the MVP favorite while averaging a triple-double, but opposing teams with size tend to make life a little bit more difficult for the Denver big man. At least as much as one team can. 

Enter the Cavs, who start both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in the frontcourt. Cleveland ranks third in the league in points per possession allowed, and is second in rim defense by allowing a 63% clip on close-range shots. Jokic and the Nuggets will certainly have to work for their offensive production.

Since we project this spread north of one possession, we would be comfortable laying up to 2.5 points with the home favorite. Lines are super efficient at this point in the NBA season, but this is a four-star pick based on the combination of Cleveland’s home success and its overwhelming presence on the defensive end.

Nuggets-Cavaliers picks made by Shane Jackson.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

Thursday's MLB best bet

Manny Machado to lead MLB in home runs (+10000 via BetMGM)

Similarly, Machado possesses plenty of power but has never reached the 40-homer plateau, though he's come close on two occasions (37 in 2016 and 2018). But money tends to motivate humans, which very much includes those who hit a baseball really far.

Machado said that he plans to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. That could be the boost he needs after ranking in the top 10% of the league in hard-hit rate for two straight seasons.

MLB home run futures picks made by Sean Tomlinson.

Check out all of our MLB top picks.

Thursday's soccer best bet

Manchester City -2 vs. Bournemouth (+130 via DraftKings)⭐⭐⭐⭐

Manchester City have a 100% record against Bournemouth in the Premier League, beating the Cherries in all of their 11 top flight encounters. Bournemouth have never beaten City in any other league meetings in the English football pyramid. 

Since the World Cup break, Bournemouth have scored just three goals in the league. Although they did find the net last week in their 1-0 over Wolves. The 26 Premier League goals that Erling Haaland has scored this season is five more than the whole Cherries team have managed. City have scored 60 goals in the competition this season and have conceded the fourth fewest. 

Pep Guardiola will have his side fired up for this match on Saturday, after two frustrating results in the Premier League and UEFA Champions League this past week. 

I expect City to head to the southcoast and take care of business, which is why I’m confidently backing them to cover. If they get an early goal, the floodgates could open. DraftKings is the only book offering -2 ATS. For this match, it’s a good play that delivers positive odds.

Premier League best bets made by Anthony Wootton.

Check out all of our soccer best bets.

Here are our best sportsbooks:

• FanDuel: Up to $3,000 Back in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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