UTEP vs. Arizona Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Will UTEP Suffer Second Straight Power 5 Loss?

Check out our best prediction for the Week 3 college football matchup between UTEP and Arizona based on the best NCAAF odds.

Mike Spector

Last updated: September 16, 2023 6:02 PM EDT • 5 min read

The UTEP Miners face the Arizona Wildcats, their second consecutive Power Five opponent, and we have you covered with our top picks and predictions, based on the best college football odds.

UTEP (1-2) faced a challenging start in Week 0 when they played against Jacksonville State, a team having their first FBS contest at home. After bringing their record to 1-1 with a 28-14 victory over Incarnate Word, the Miners experienced a 38-7 loss to Northwestern, despite being just a one-point underdog

Meanwhile, Arizona fell to 1-1 after a heartbreaking 31-24 overtime loss to Mississippi State.

Here is our best UTEP-Arizona prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UTEP vs. Arizona prediction: Week 3

Arizona -17 (-113 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Some may view Arizona as laying too many points in this matchup. But we're actually getting a discounted price on the Wildcats after a loss, even though they should have beaten the Bulldogs. Arizona showed resolve while erasing a 21-7 third-quarter deficit against Mississippi State, and the team still forced overtime despite producing a minus-four turnover margin (the team committed five total turnovers).

UTEP’s calling card is a strong rush defense, as it returns a front six that was second in CUSA against the run (136.0 yards per game) and first in total defense (352.9). However, UTEP struggled with uptempo offenses and units that could spread the team out. The Miners took a step back from their 88th SP+ ranking in 2021 (its highest in 13 years) and fell out of the top 90 in both offensive and defensive SP+.

Arizona will look to attack UTEP through the air after a game when its passing attack accumulated 340 yards. Three different Wildcats caught seven-plus passes, but quarterback Jayden de Laura will need to take better care of the ball after throwing four interceptions.

The Wildcats' coaching staff will continue to ask De Laura to push the ball downfield after he averaged 8.4 yards per attempt in 2022, and he's built up a nice rhythm with five of his top six pass-catchers back. And we don't expect a UTEP offense that's averaging just 16.3 points in 2023 to take advantage of a Wildcats defense that ranked 123rd or worse in finishing drives allowed and EPA per play allowed.

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There won't be an upset here, but I highlighted several such possibilities in my college football Week 3 upset picks.

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UTEP vs. Arizona best odds

BetRivers (-113)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
-18	-17.5	-17.5	-18	-18
-110	-110	-115	-110	-110

With our best sportsbooks split between a point spread of -17.5 and -18, Arizona backers will find the best value at BetRivers, as that shop's -17 spread lands right on a key betting number.

If BetRivers ever aligns with our other best sports betting apps, bettors would be wise to choose their preferred shop based on the juice each is charging, as there's already a discrepancy between FanDuel (-110) and BetMGM (-115) even though both offer a spread of -17.5. UTEP is 0-4 against the spread in its last four September road games.

UTEP vs. Arizona odds

UTEP vs. Arizona odds analysis

Arizona opened as a 17.5-point favorite, so it's interesting to see our best sports betting sites both above and below that number. While BetMGM has never wavered off its spread of -17.5 since it opened, DraftKings and Caesars have been experiencing more line movement within the past 48 hours. Those books have dropped as low as -17 and reached a high of -18, with frequent stops at -17.5 along the way. Early spread wagers are 60% in Arizona’s favor.

BetMGM is the only sportsbook still offering the same total (56.5) as its initial opening number, as most of our other best live betting sites have gone to 57 (FanDuel is the only sportsbook at 57.5, but the Under is juiced to -115). DraftKings and Caesars reached a low of 56 before Over backers drove the number up. That line movement also reflects the betting splits, as early wagers are 2/1 in favor of the Over.

UTEP vs. Arizona game info

When: Saturday, Sept. 16 at 11 p.m. ET
Where: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
How to watch: PAC-12 Network
Weather: 73 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph

UTEP-Arizona prediction made 9/13/2023 at 1:31 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”