Troy vs. South Alabama Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 8

We like the road underdogs to keep things close in the "Battle of the Belt" in a game that has already seen plenty of line movement.

Mike Spector

Last updated: October 14, 2024 1:41 PM EDT • 4 min read

South Alabama Jaguars quarterback Gio Lopez (7) loses his helmet as we offer our Troy vs. South Alabama prediction, picks, and odds for Week 8. — South Alabama Jaguars quarterback Gio Lopez (7) loses his helmet against the LSU Tigers. Photo by Stephen Lew / Imagn.

For the first time this season, there is a college football slate of games on Tuesday, and the Sun Belt kicks it off with a Week 8 matchup between the Troy Trojans (1-5) and South Alabama Jaguars (2-4).

This is the 13th all-time meeting of the “Battle of the Belt” (Troy is 9-3)
Troy is looking for its first conference win this season after an 0-2 start
The Trojans look to extend their Sun Belt road winning streak

Our Troy vs. South Alabama prediction agrees with the line movement for this game and expects the road underdogs to stay within the number.

Best Troy vs. South Alabama picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Against the spread pick: Troy +12.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. South Alabama ⭐⭐⭐
My best bet: Gio Lopez Under 247.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Troy vs. South Alabama against the spread prediction: Week 8

Troy to cover the spread: +12.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Troy vs. South Alabama opening odds:

Troy: +13.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
South Alabama: -13.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

Trojans are solid on the road

Troy is playing its first road game since Sept. 14, when it lost 38-21 at Iowa. It's still the only team to score 21 points against the Hawkeyes this year.

This is the Trojans’ first conference road game of the season, and they bring a seven-game Sun Belt road winning streak into the contest. That is the second-longest active conference road winning streak in the country behind only Tulane's nine-game run in the AAC.

Troy can rely on stout defense

Troy’s offense and special teams has often put its defense in precarious spots, as the Trojans have started seven defensive possessions on their side of the field this season (11% of their possessions).

However, they have held up well in those situations, allowing just three points per drive despite the poor field position.

Troy is known as an opportunistic defense - its 195 turnovers forced since the start of the 2016 season are the second-most in the country in that span. It also allows fewer first downs per game than South Alabama (22.2 to 20.7) and fewer yards per game (442.3 to 380.7).

The line has shaded heavily in Troy’s favor, coming down as much as 2.5 points from the opening number before some buyback on the Trojans. That suggests sharp action is backing the road underdogs.

I am aligning with the sharps as there is still value at +12.5. A $10 winning wager at these -110 odds via BetMGM would pay out $9.09 in profit.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Troy vs. South Alabama best bet

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Gio Lopez Under 247.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez leads an offense that ranks first in the Sun Belt in total yards per game (466.2). He is also one of 16 quarterbacks nationally to throw one or fewer interceptions this season.

Lopez faces a stingy Troy defense that allows 198.8 passing yards per game. I also expect the Trojans to do well in time of possession, as running back Damien Taylor ranks 18th nationally with an 83.6 PFF rush grade (min. 60 attempts) while averaging 4.82 yards after contact (eighth-best).

Lopez has thrown for 257-plus yards in three of five games, but he has 173 or fewer passing yards in two of the last three. He should not have the volume of attempts needed to go over this projected total at FanDuel.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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Troy vs. South Alabama odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Troy vs. South Alabama game info

When: Tuesday, Oct. 15
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Ala.)
How to watch: ESPN2
Weather: 75 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 13 mph SW
Favorite: South Alabama -12.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”