Toledo vs. Bowling Green Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 12: Will Defenses Continue to Dominate?

The Toledo Rockets visit the Bowling Green Falcons on Tuesday, and there are significant MAC Championship Game implications on the line, so we have you covered with our top Toledo vs. Bowling Green prediction based on the best college football odds.

With a victory against Eastern Michigan in Week 11, Toledo (9-1, 6-0 MAC) secured the MAC West division crown while remaining the only unbeaten team in MAC play. With their ninth consecutive win following an opening week 30-28 defeat to Illinois, the Rockets have now clinched bowl eligibility for the seventh time since 2015.

Bowling Green (6-4, 4-2 MAC) boasts the second-longest winning streak among MAC teams, having won four consecutive games — three by double digits. The Falcons have not had a four-game win streak since 2015. They achieved bowl eligibility following a dominant 49-19 victory over Kent State last week.

Here is our best Toledo vs. Bowling Green prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Toledo vs. Bowling Green prediction: Week 12

Under 52.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Bowling Green did not miss the services of running back Terion Stewart for at least one week, as he was kept out of last week’s win over Kent State with an injured ankle. Though backup Ta’Ron Keith filled in admirably with career highs in rushing yards (103) and receiving yards (130), we are tempering our expectations going forward as those numbers came against a Golden Flashes defense that entered the game ranked 85th in rush success and 129th in pass success.

If Stewart is again out, Bowling Green will find life much more difficult offensively against a Toledo defense that entered last week ranked in the top 15 in pass success and finishing drives. That will put even more pressure on Falcons quarterback Connor Bazelak, who has a 4-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in conference play while completing fewer than 57% of his passes.

Thus, a team that ranks in the top 40 in the country in rush rate will be taken out of its comfort zone if Toledo controls the line of scrimmage like it has all season (it is fifth in the MAC in line yards). And do not be fooled by the Rockets allowing 23 points last week to Eastern Michigan, as most of that came in garbage time as they led 35-3 at the half. The Eagles totaled just 106 yards and had nine first downs over the first 30 minutes last week.

Bowling Green’s winning streak has been spurred by a defense that has allowed 17 points per game through the four-game stretch. The Falcons entered last week ranked in the top 42 in PFF’s coverage and tackling grades, and their disciplined defense should be able to slow down a Rockets offense that topped 31 points just once in the previous four games.

This is a three-star play, as the Over has cashed in all four games in which the Falcons have been favored but is just 2-3-1 when they have been underdogs this season. In addition, the Under is 3-1-1 when Bowling Green has been an underdog since the start of last season. 

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Toledo vs. Bowling Green best odds

bet365 (-110)

There is a one-point difference between the low and high end of this total among our best sports betting apps, so Under backers benefit from the best line at BetMGM, bet365, or Caesars.

Recency bias may drive this line higher, as the Over has cashed in the last two meetings between these teams, and the two teams have combined for 56-plus points in both.

The juice being tilted toward the Over at FanDuel (-115) suggests it will meet its competitors at a higher number, but we would advise backing the total of 52.5 now in case the line never gets to 53 or higher before Tuesday’s kickoff.

For the best odds on this bet, be sure to use our exclusive bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS.

Toledo vs. Bowling Green odds

Toledo vs. Bowling Green odds analysis

There has been non-stop movement toward the Over since the line opened at our best sports betting sites, especially at FanDuel, at which the total was 47.5 on Sunday afternoon and spiked to 50.5 within a few hours.

Meanwhile, bet365 was much later to reveal its opening number, but it still increased from 52 to 52.5 by the end of Sunday night. The Over has cashed in four of Toledo’s previous five November road games.

There is a significant difference among our best sportsbooks regarding the point spread, as there are lines on either side of the key number of 10.

FanDuel is the lone shop offering Toledo at -9.5 (-115), while Caesars is the only one at -10.5 (-110). FanDuel's line got as high as -11.5, but Bowling Green backers weighed in heavily and drove the line down two full points. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six November games as road favorites.

Toledo vs. Bowling Green game info

• When: Tuesday, Nov. 14 at 7:00 p.m. ET
• Where: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
• How to watch: ESPN2
• Weather: 57 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph SSW

Toledo-Bowling Green prediction made 11/13/2023 at 8:38 a.m. ET.

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