Texas vs. Baylor Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 4: Longhorns Should Make Easy Work of Bears

Check out our best prediction for the Week 4 college football matchup between Texas and Baylor based on the best NCAAF odds.

Brenden Schaeffer

Last updated: September 23, 2023 6:05 PM EDT • 5 min read

Our top Texas vs. Baylor prediction based on the college football odds from our best sports betting apps looks at the Baylor Bears’ lack of success at McLane Stadium.

The 1-2 Baylor Bears lost both games against FBS opponents, while their next opponent, the 3-0 Texas Longhorns, are their most daunting test yet. Texas ranks college football's No. 3, and the Longhorns topped the Alabama Crimson Tide with a 34-24 road win in Week 2. It was arguably the most impressive victory from any team this season.

We look at this matchup and more in our college football picks for Week 4, college football prop picks for Week 4, college football Week 4 upset picks, college football best bets for Week 4, and college football parlay picks for Week 4.

Here is our best Texas-Baylor prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texas vs. Baylor prediction: Week 4

Texas -14.5 (-110 via FanDuel, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The transitive property doesn’t always apply in college football. But I'm struggling to imagine that Texas could go on the road to Alabama and secure a double-digit win, then be unable to blitz Baylor in Waco. The Bears are easily the lowest-rated Big 12 team in overall efficiency, ranking outside the top 100 in the FBS.

Baylor has suffered home losses to Texas State and Utah by a combined 18 points already in 2023. With an adjusted offensive efficiency sitting at 94th in the country, it should be a long day for Baylor’s offense against the nation's top-ranked school in defensive efficiency. Texas has allowed just 44 points across three games in 2023, all against FBS foes (and again, one was Alabama).

It doesn’t get any better for Baylor on the other side of the ball, as Texas hasn’t scored fewer than 30 points in a game yet. Quinn Ewers threw for 349 yards and three passing scores in Tuscaloosa. The Longhorns' offense is primed to exploit a Baylor defense that's allowing more than 400 yards per game in 2023.

Baylor played all three of its games so far in its home stadium, but the Bears are 0-2-1 against the spread. I don’t feel the best sportsbooks have adjusted enough to how much of a mismatch this affair should be on Saturday.

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Texas vs. Baylor best odds

FanDuel, BetMGM (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Texas -15	Texas -14.5	Texas -14.5	Texas -15	Texas -15
-110	-115	-115	-110	-110

FanDuel and BetMGM have held steady on the opening line of Texas -14.5, increasing the odds to -115. All of our other best sports betting sites are posting the Longhorns at -15 with standard -110 odds.

While there’s a slight preference for the hook at -14.5, we’re confident in taking Texas to -16.5. However, the recommendation would fall to three stars at that line.

Texas vs. Baylor odds

Texas vs. Baylor odds analysis

Texas opened as a 14.5-point road favorite and has remained there at some of our best live betting sites while moving to -15 at others. Currently, 67% of the wagers have come in on the Longhorns.

The total opened at 51.5 and has held steady across our recommended sportsbooks. Right now 59% of the action is on the Over.

Texas vs. Baylor game info

When: Saturday, Sept. 23 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
How to watch: ABC
Weather: 94 Degrees,15 mph Winds, 15% Precipitation

Texas-Baylor prediction made Thursday at 2:10 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer

Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.