Penn State vs. Illinois Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Is This James Franklin’s Best Defense?

Check out our best prediction for the Week 3 college football matchup between Penn State and Illinois based on the best NCAAF odds.

Mike Spector

Last updated: September 16, 2023 11:07 AM EDT • 6 min read

The Penn State Nittany Lions and Illinois Fighting Illini are poised to compete in an inter-division Big Ten matchup, and we've got you covered with our top Penn State-Illinois prediction, relying on the best college football odds available.

This year's Penn State squad could potentially be head coach James Franklin's best, and they have done nothing to dispel that notion, boasting the best point differential (plus-79) of any Big Ten team through two games.

Illinois followed up their 30-28 opening-week victory over Toledo with a 34-23 loss to Kansas last Friday night.

As part of our college football Week 3 predictions, here is our best Penn State vs. Illinois prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Penn State vs. Illinois prediction: Week 3

Illinois team total Under 16.5 (-115 via FanDuel, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Against a Kansas team that returned 85% of production from last season (mostly offense, where it returned 91%), Illinois started the game with four punts in four possessions. The Illini were dominated in the time of possession by over 13 minutes, allowing 539 total yards and 262 on the ground.

That's scary for Illinois backers coming into a matchup with Penn State, which has a monster two-headed running back tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Singleton and Allen are the first true freshman duo in Big Ten history to rush for 700-plus yards each per season, and the pair combined to average 5.0 yards per carry through two games.

Penn State’s ability to run the ball and dominate the line of scrimmage was on full display against an overmatched Delaware team last week. Six of its eight scoring drives lasted at least eight plays, with another two of 10-plus plays. The Nittany Lions won the time of possession battle by nearly 25 minutes against the Blue Hens, which doesn't bode well for Illini's defense, given how long it was on the field in Week 2.

This is as a four-star play because of Penn State’s ability to play keep-away. Illinois head coach Bret Bielema will want to run the ball at all costs. The Nittany Lions' run defense looks much improved from a unit that ranked 42nd in First Down Rush Success Rate and 19th in Second Down Rush Success Rate. And even if the Illini choose to pass, Penn State was in the top 10 in pass rush and led college football pass breakups last year.

After Alabama was held to 24 points last week, Penn State now has an FBS longest active streak scoring 30-plus points (nine games). The Lions can control the clock and grind out long drives to limit Illinois’ offensive ceiling.

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Penn State vs. Illinois best odds

FanDuel, bet365 (-115)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
16.5	16.5	N/A	N/A	16.5
Under (-120)	Under (-115)	N/A	N/A	Under (-115)

Only three of our best sports betting apps offer team total props for this game, but bet365 and FanDuel set themselves apart with five cents less in juice they charge compared to DraftKings’ -120 price. These books offer a wide range of team prop bets, and since DraftKings has Illinois’ touchdown team total set at Over/Under 1.5 (+110 for the Under), that makes us more confident the Illini won't score 17-plus points and exceed the game total.

For those who want other variations within this market, bet365 offers a three-way betting total, with Illinois to score Over 14 points (-130), exactly 14 points (+450), and Under 14 points (+210), which should entice some Under backers who think the Illini are in for a brutal day offensively.

Penn State vs. Illinois odds

Penn State vs. Illinois odds analysis

All of our best sports betting sites are aligned with Penn State being a 14.5-point favorite, though that's down from an opening number of -16.5. BetMGM has the Nittany Lions as 16.5-point favorites on Sunday afternoon, while DraftKings reached a high of -16, and the highest FanDuel got earlier this week was -15.5. Early point spread wagers are more than 2/1 (69/31) in Penn State’s favor.

The total is also the same at all five of our best sportsbooks (O/U 48.5), with the only variations being the Under is juiced to -115 at FanDuel. BetMGM, FanDuel, and Caesars all reached highs of 49.5 earlier this week, and the total got as low as 48 at DraftKings before Over backers bet it back up a half-point.

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Penn State vs. Illinois game info

When: Saturday, Sept. 16 at noon ET
Where: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
How to watch: FOX
Weather: 76 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, 6-mph WSW wind

Penn State-Illinois prediction made Wednesday, 9/13/23 at 12:27 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”