Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 5
This week’s matchup between Oklahoma State and Kansas State was circled as a potential Big 12 championship preview before the season. However, that plan was altered when both teams lost their conference opener.
Oklahoma State dropped a 22-19 decision to Utah last week in a game lined as a toss-up, while Kansas State suffered a 38-9 upset at BYU as a 7.5-point favorite. So, which Big 12 team will avoid a dreaded 0-2 start in Manhattan on Saturday?
Our Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State predictions help answer that question ahead of a pivotal matchup as part of our Week 5 college football predictions.
Best Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Kansas State -5 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. Oklahoma State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Avery Johnson Over 54.5 rushing yards (-117 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State against the spread prediction: Week 5
Kansas State to cover the spread: -5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State opening odds:
- Oklahoma State: +6.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
- Kansas State: -6.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
FanDuel is typically the first shop to release college football betting lines each week. That’s where the spread opened as high as 6.5, though it has since settled between 4.5 and 5 at most of our best sports betting sites.
Bettors must pay -115 to lay the 4.5, so taking the -108 odds on a 5-point spread makes more sense since that’s not a key number in football.
In Klieman we trust
As I highlighted in my Big 12 predictions, this is the best time to back Kansas State in the Chris Klieman era. He hasn’t dropped back-to-back games since November 2021, primarily due to quarterback injuries.
More than that, the Wildcats tend to respond with authority after a defeat. In their last nine games following a loss, they have posted an average margin of victory of 24.8 points in the following game.
All nine of those K-State victories came by at least a touchdown, so I love getting a spread of 5.5 or better.
Rookie moment
First-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson is expected to go through some growing pains. That’s what we can call his first road Big 12 game at BYU, a tough trip for even a veteran player.
Johnson threw two picks in the loss, finishing with 130 yards on 28 attempts.
I expect the Wildcats to simplify things for Johnson this week, leaning on his threat as a runner. That should lead to a bounce-back outing at home for the promising young player out of Wichita, Kansas.
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prop pick for Week 5
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Avery Johnson Over 54.5 rushing yards (-117) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Wildcats need Johnson’s legs to win this game. Fortunately, it’s been a focal point of the offensive game plan for the last two weeks.
Johnson recorded 74 yards on 11 against in last week’s loss to BYU. He also posted 110 yards on 17 attempts against Arizona. I expect another double-digit attempt performance this weekend, letting Johnson do what he does best in a must-win game.
Notably, ESPN BET offers a market for Under 0.5 rushing touchdowns (-106) for Johnson. That would be a five-star prediction for me, as Johnson isn’t much of a red-zone option with K-State having two talented running backs. He doesn’t have a rushing score this year.
But I also like the Over on 54.5 rushing yards on a day when Johnson should clear this line in a K-State win.
Best odds: -117 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.92%
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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kan.
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 82 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 14 mph N
- Favorite: Kansas State -4.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
College football betting odds pages
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