SEC Predictions, Odds & Best Bets Week 5
The Georgia vs. Alabama showdown is the fifth-ever AP top-five matchup in September between SEC opponents (and the first since 1999). It highlights what should be an exciting weekend of SEC football, and that matchup features two of the top three teams in the SEC Championship odds.
- Tennessee's win over Oklahoma last week was its first road victory against an AP top-15 opponent since 2006 (snapping a 28-game losing streak)
- Missouri was the first AP top-10 opponent to go to overtime as a 17-point home favorite since 2019
- Ole Miss’ plus-198 scoring differential is the best of any team through four games in SEC history
Our SEC predictions for Week 5 call for a significant day from one of the conference’s best running backs, and a surprising shootout involving a ranked team. We also include our best player prop for the colossal Georgia vs. Alabama matchup as part of our college football Week 5 predictions.
SEC best bets: Week 5
College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Ja’Quinden Jackson Over 80.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) vs. Texas A&M ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Oklahoma-Auburn Over 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Ryan Williams Over 46.5 receiving yards (-119 via Caesars) vs. Georgia ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best SEC predictions this week
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Ja’Quinden Jackson Over 80.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Arkansas running back Ja’Quinden Jackson’s eight rushing touchdowns are tied for the most through four games by a Razorbacks player since the team joined the SEC.
However, instead of backing his relatively steep anytime touchdown odds (which are as high as -182 at Caesars) in this matchup, I'm eyeing his rushing total for better value.
While quarterback Taylen Green is responsible for more than one-third of the team’s rushing yards, Jackson is the clear focal point at running back.
His 69 carries trump the next-highest running back’s total on the team (14). And in A&M’s toughest game to date against Notre Dame, who also boast a mobile quarterback in Riley Leonard, Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love ran for 91 yards and 6.5 yards per carry. The Aggies neededto focus so much defensive attention on the quarterback’s ability to run.
FanDuel is posting the lowest total for Jackson’s rushing yards, as all others are at 82.5. That is where I'm heading to lay down my $10 wager, with the hopes of returning an $18.77 payout.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Oklahoma-Auburn Over 45.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
The Sooners ran for 36 yards in the loss to Tennessee last week, their lowest rushing total in a game since 2012.
However, the Volunteers' defense has been shutting down everyone to this point, as they're the first SEC team to allow fewer than 250 yards in each of the first four games of a season since 2013 (Florida). But quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. played the entire second half in relief of Jackson Arnold while leading Oklahoma on its only two touchdown drives.
Meanwhile, Auburn is the only FBS team this season with five-plus turnovers in at least two games. Its 14 turnovers through four games have led to a minus-10 turnover margin (tied for the worst nationally). That's the fourth-most through four games from an SEC team over the last 25 seasons.
Turnovers can help aid the Over if those plays set up the opposition in good field position or lead directly to points (Arkansas scored 10 points off Auburn’s turnovers). But if Auburn does protect the football better, the team has been averaging eight yards per play this season.
With some of our other best sports betting sites like DraftKings charging -115 in juice to back the Over, I'm heading to BetMGM. That's where a winning $10 wager at its -110 would net $9.09 in profit.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Ryan Williams Over 46.5 receiving yards (-119) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams has broken onto the scene in a big way for the Crimson Tide. Among all FBS freshmen, Williams ranks first in receiving yards (285), first in yards per reception (28.5), and is tied for first in receiving touchdowns (four).
Williams’ four receiving touchdowns are tied for the second-most through three games from an Alabama wide receiver since 1992. Alabama freshman wide receivers have turned in plenty of great games against Georgia recently (e.g. Jaylen Waddle’s 113-yard and one-touchdown performance in 2018). So a talented receiver like Williams should be getting more than a 54.34% implied probability to go over this total.
A winning $10 wager would return a payout of $18.40, and you could pocket that while watching two teams that sit in the top four of the college football championship odds. The clash will also feature two contenders in the Heisman Trophy odds.
We also highlighted this exact bet in our Week 5 college football expert picks.
Have a look at my other top plays from this SEC showdown in my Georgia vs. Alabama prediction.
Best odds: -119 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.34%
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