College Football Expert Picks Week 5: Top CFB Predictions This Week
The best slate of games to date this college football season takes place this weekend as we make our Week 5 college football expert picks.
- After tumbling down the College Football Playoff odds, USC has a chance to get back on track against Wisconsin
- Texas is set to begin SEC play with Arch Manning likely to make his second start as he tries to climb the Heisman Trophy odds
- Georgia heads to Alabama as a 1.5-point favorite in a matchup of college football championship odds favorites in Tuscaloosa
As part of our Week 5 college football predictions, our experts are making their best bets on the can't-miss games this week.
College football expert picks for Week 5
College football odds as of Thursday and subject to change. See all of our college football picks for more on this week's top matchups.
| Rob Paul | C Jackson Cowart | |
|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin vs. USC | Woody Marks Over 79.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) | USC Over 32.5 points (-115 via FanDuel) |
| Mississippi State vs. Texas | Jaydon Blue 2+ touchdowns (+120 via bet365) | Texas Over 49.5 points (+102 via FanDuel) |
| Georgia vs. Alabama | Ryan Williams Over 46.5 receiving yards (-119 via Caesars) | Alabama +2 (-110 via bet365) |
| Illinois vs. Penn State | Nicholas Singleton Over 79.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) | Illinois +18 (-108 via DraftKings) |
| Arizona vs. Utah | Micah Bernard Over 98.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) | Arizona +8.5 (-112 via DraftKings) |
| Oregon vs. UCLA | Dillon Gabriel Over 2.5 passing TDs (+106 via FanDuel) | Over 55 (-108 via DraftKings) |
Top picks for Week 5
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Wisconsin vs. USC prediction: Woody Marks Over 79.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Marks has hit 100-plus rushing yards in back-to-back games, including against a Michigan defense that's fifth in SP+. He has USC's offense sitting 10th in EPA per rush.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin allows the fourth-most rushing yards in the Big Ten (141.3) and is 113th in EPA per rush on defense. If Marks hits the Over, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Mississippi State vs. Texas prediction: Texas Over 49.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
As of this writing, we still don't know who will start under center for Texas. I'm not sure it matters against a Mississippi State defense that gave up 45 points to Florida and 41 points to Toledo over the last two weeks.
The Longhorns put up 51 points last week in Arch Manning's first career start, and they dropped 56 points the week before with Manning and Quinn Ewers splitting duties. There's a chance you or I could lead Texas to a 50-piece with Steve Sarkisian calling the plays.
For more on this game, check out our Mississippi State vs. Texas prediction.
Best odds: +102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.50%
–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: Ryan Williams Over 46.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It appears that Ryan Williams is Alabama's next great receiver, and he's gone Over 46.5 receiving yards in all three games this season. He ranks second in the country in YAC per reception (16.0) and fourth in yards per route run (5.82), per PFF.
Georgia's the best defense he's faced, but his big play ability alongside Jalen Milroe's arm talent should help this Over hit. If it does, a $10 bet pays an $8.40 profit.
Best odds: -119 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.34%
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Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: Alabama +2 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Georgia has won 42 consecutive games in the regular season, but Kirby Smart's group lost its previous matchup with Alabama in last year's SEC Championship, when Milroe combined for 221 yards and two scores in that 27-24 win.
The Bulldogs struggled to tackle in a 13-12 win over Kentucky last time out, and they'll face a physical Crimson Tide attack in a hostile environment at Bryant-Denny Stadium. SP+ has this predicted as a 29-26 win for 'Bama, so give me the points in Kalen DeBoer's rivalry debut.
We broke down this monumental matchup even further in our Georgia vs. Alabama prediction.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
Oregon vs. UCLA prediction: Dillon Gabriel Over 2.5 passing TDs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UCLA has one of the worst pass defenses in the country, sitting 125th in EPA per pass. The Bruins have given up three-plus TD passes in back-to-back games against Power 4 opponents.
Dillon Gabriel has gotten better in each game with the Ducks and leads the country in adjusted completion rate (89.2%). If he throws three-plus TDs, a $10 bet pays a $10.60 profit.
Best odds: +106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.54%
Arizona vs. Utah prediction: Arizona +8.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Utah is ranked in the top 10 thanks to a perfect start, but it's telling that the Utes have jumped a whole two spots in five weeks after a string of uninspiring wins.
Quarterback Cameron Rising (hand) is set to return even though he's still struggling with his velocity on throws. Arizona has too much roster talent to be catching more than a touchdown in this matchup.
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
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–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
College football betting odds pages
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