College Football Player Props Week 4: Predictions & Odds
Week 4 of the college football season is set to be the biggest slate yet, and we will have college football player props based on the best NCAAF odds throughout the weekend.
Get ready, college football fans, for a huge Week 4 slate that features many marquee games from start to finish. We plan to have picks running throughout the weekend by making the most of our edges in the player prop market.
We had another profitable showing in Week 3, which was highlighted by Shedeur Sanders recording Over 3.5 touchdown passes for a +150 payout. My top props predictions for Sportsbook Review are now 9-8 on the year for a profit of 2.44 units through three weeks.
Let's try to make some more money this weekend, shall we?
Here are our best college football player props for Week 4 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football player props for Week 4
- Xavier Weaver Under 97.5 receiving yards (-125 via DraftKings) - Colorado vs. Oregon ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Corey Crooms Jr. Over 33.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) - Minnesota vs. Northwestern ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jaden Greathouse Under 32.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) - Notre Dame vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Emory Jones Under 229.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) - Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma ⭐⭐⭐⭐✖️
- Darren Grainger Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-106 via FanDuel) - Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
- Hudson Card Under 260.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) - Purdue vs. Wisconsin ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
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College football player props for Saturday Week 4
Xavier Weaver Under 97.5 receiving yards (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
There's probably someone out there making the case for the Over on this same prop, especially at BetMGM where the line is as low as 89.5 receiving yards for Colorado's Xavier Weaver. The argument is actually simple: Weaver has cleared this mark in each of his first three games and could get even more targets with two-way star Travis Hunter sidelined.
But our process isn't like that. We consider projections and bet when there's an edge. In this case, there could be an inflated total for Weaver. His receiving prop was 20 yards lower one week ago against Colorado State, a game when he needed two overtimes to finish with 98 yards on nine catches.
With a projection closer to 85 yards, there's value in taking the Under on this high total. Weaver has actually been given the highest receiving yardage prop in this game by 13 yards, and his line could be the highest for the entire Week 4 college football slate.
Oregon's 23rd-ranked PFF coverage grade deserves more respect in a contest that could get out of hand in a hurry. DraftKings is offering a 23% boost on any bet for Colorado vs. Oregon, so roll with this play to get more favorable odds on the Under.
Xavier Weaver college football player prop made 9/23/2023 at 10:25 a.m. ET.
Corey Crooms Jr. Over 33.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Minnesota receiver Corey Crooms Jr. is off to a strong start in 2023 after recording 14 catches for 154 yards through three games. He's cleared this mark each week in 2023, posting 45-plus yards in all three outings.
Most of the best sportsbooks are aware of his performances, which is why they're setting Crooms' receiving line at a more fair 38.5 yards with the Over juiced. That's why we're taking advantage of this discount at BetMGM before it's too late.
Crooms is projected to record 50 receiving yards in a game with Minnesota as a double-digit road favorite. The game script could ultimately work against us, but we believe Crooms will get his production before then.
Crooms is second on the team with 22 targets, according to PFF, trailing only Daniel Jackson and his 24. Both receivers are averaging at least 10 yards per catch, meaning they're capable of clearing such low totals on just a few receptions.
Corey Crooms Jr. college football player prop made 9/23/2023 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Jaden Greathouse Under 32.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
We're getting more player prop markets for Notre Dame-Ohio State since the top-10 showdown is the spotlight contest of the day. We can capitalize on that while taking an Under on a freshman receiver who probably won't get a major role in this marquee matchup.
The future is promising for Notre Dame's Jaden Greathouse, but I'm betting against him contributing much in this one. We project Greathouse to finish with 20 receiving yards, meaning there's plenty of value on this Under at the lone shop hanging a line for the Fighting Irish rookie.
Greathouse caught three balls for 68 yards in Week 0 against Navy, but he's finished below this mark in each of the last three weeks. Greathouse has only caught two or three passes in all four of his collegiate games thus far.
Even that doesn't tell the whole story, as PFF charts him with 47 passing snaps through four games. That ranks fifth on the team, and his usage could be even lower against a stout Ohio State defense.
Jaden Greathouse college football player prop made 9/23/2023 at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Emory Jones Under 229.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐✖️
Let's continue to attack quarterback markets because this line seems a bit off. We're projecting Cincinnati quarterback Emory Jones to struggle to reach the 200-yard mark against Oklahoma, meaning this Under ticket would be good at the 220.5 line the remaining best sports betting sites are offering.
Thankfully, BetMGM is giving us an extra 10 yards of cushion for now.
Jones is at his third collegiate stop after playing for Florida between 2018 and 2021 and Arizona State in 2022. He's done well for the 2-1 Bearcats to this point, throwing for 735 yards and clearing this passing yardage prop line twice. However, those games took place against Eastern Kentucky and Miami (Ohio), while Jones finished with just 125 passing yards at Pittsburgh in Week 2.
Oklahoma now comes to town and should give Cincinnati a proper introduction to the Big 12 as a two-touchdown road favorite. Everyone is aware of the Sooners' offense during their 3-0 start, but the team's defense has surrendered only 28 points thus far. OU ranks 38th in PFF's coverage grade and is giving up just 209 passing yards per game.
It could be a long day for Jones and Co. on Saturday afternoon against Cincinnati.
Emory Jones college football player prop made 9/22/2023 at 5:55 p.m. ET.
College football player props for Thursday Week 4
Darren Grainger Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
Week 4 will begin with a primetime showdown between two talented quarterbacks when Coastal Carolina's Grayson McCall and Georgia State's Darren Grainger square off.
While McCall is more known to casual college football fans, Grainger actually has been better to start the season. According to PFF, he ranks fifth in all of college football in overall offensive grade through three weeks, trailing players like Tyler Van Dyke, Shedeur Sanders, and Michael Penix Jr.
Grainger is coming off a big week, where he threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-25 win over Charlotte. It earned him Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Week honors, so the South Carolina native comes into this homecoming matchup with plenty of momentum.
The market believes this game will be high scoring, as the total has climbed up to 63, and we like betting on points in our top Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina prediction. This is another way of betting on offense, with these odds implying that Granger has a 51.46% chance of throwing multiple touchdown passes.
Make this bet using FanDuel's alternate passing touchdowns market, thanks to a -106 listing for Grainger to throw two-plus touchdowns. With DraftKings offering the same Over at -120, we'd take this up to -130 for our top college football Week 4 predictions.
Darren Grainger college football player prop made 9/21/2023 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
College football player props for Friday Week 4
Hudson Card Under 260.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
Quarterback Hudson Card, who transferred from Texas after losing the job to Quinn Ewers, is off to a solid start with Purdue. He has thrown for 825 yards and three touchdowns through three games, which includes a 323-yard performance in a 35-20 loss to Syracuse last week.
That Week 3 showing has likely led to an inflated total here, especially considering Card needed 46 pass attempts to get there. He failed to cover this number in each of the first two games, as the Boilermakers are off to a 1-2 start on the year.
Purdue is a home underdog ahead of its Big Ten opener against Wisconsin, but this game figures to be competitive with the spread sitting within a touchdown. More importantly, the Badgers rank in the top 50 in PFF coverage grade through three weeks and have a better pass defense than their average of 276 yards per game (107th in FBS) would indicate.
However, our Brenden Schaeffer likes the Badgers on Friday in his Wisconsin vs. Purdue prediction.
With Card projected to finish more than 20 yards below this number, we like the idea of taking the Under at BetMGM. A shop like FanDuel has set Card's passing yardage prop as low as 250, suggesting this number won't remain this high for long.
Hudson Card college football player prop made 9/21/2023 at 5:35 p.m. ET.
More college football player props
- Colorado vs. Oregon player props
- Shedeur Sanders player props
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame player props
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