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Tanner Mordecai of the Wisconsin Badgers scores a 1-yard touchdown run as we share our favorite Wisconsin vs. Purdue prediction.
Tanner Mordecai of the Wisconsin Badgers scores a 1-yard touchdown run against the Georgia Southern Eagles at Camp Randall Stadium on Sept. 16, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images via AFP.

College football's Week 4 brings a loaded Friday night slate as we make our best Wisconsin vs. Purdue prediction based on the best college football odds.

The Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) and Purdue Boilermakers (1-2) are two Big Ten teams ranking outside the Top 60 in overall FBS efficiency, according to FPI.

With neither team really standing out from the other, it’s surprising to see the road side is such a clear favorite on the spread. However, the Badgers own a stylistic advantage, which could provide them with an edge over the Boilermakers in this matchup.

To help with your college football Week 4 predictions, here is our best Wisconsin vs. Purdue prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Don't miss out on our college football best bets for Friday and our college football Week 4 player props.

Wisconsin vs. Purdue prediction: Week 4

Wisconsin -5.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Purdue ranks an FBS 61st this season, allowing 132.7 rushing yards per game. Its run defense is susceptible to staggering matchups for opposing rushers. In last week’s loss to Syracuse, Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader torched the Boilermakers for 195 ground yards and four rushing touchdowns.

Wisconsin QB Tanner Mordecai is mobile enough but isn't a major threat for big ground games. Then again, Shrader didn't go for more than 40 rushing yards in either of his other contests this year. This might just be a defensive issue for the Boilermakers.

Whether Mordecai tries to repeat Shrader’s feat from center, that run defense is a concern this week as Wisconsin leans heavily on its running game. The Badgers rank an FBS 20th in rushing, averaging 203.7 rushing yards per game.

Although Wisconsin is a paltry 96th in offensive efficiency, the Badgers’ ground strength should be enough to outpace a Purdue defense that's 110th in adjusted efficiency. Purdue is 0-2 ATS in home games so far this year.

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Wisconsin vs. Purdue best odds

FanDuel: Wisconsin -5.5 (-110)

Wisconsin -6Wisconsin -5.5Wisconsin -6Wisconsin -6Wisconsin -6

Most of our best sports betting apps list Wisconsin as a 6-point favorite, so FanDuel’s -5.5 offer is the best value for Badgers backers.

The Wisconsin -6 (-110) line at the other best sports betting sites is still playable, but it’s only a three-star recommendation at that price. In general, play the Badgers to -6.5.

Wisconsin vs. Purdue odds

Wisconsin vs. Purdue odds analysis

Wisconsin opened as a 6.5-point road favorite and held steady at -6 across most of our best sportsbooks while dipping to -5.5 at FanDuel. Over 70% of wagers were on Wisconsin.

The total hasn’t moved since opening at 53.5. More than 60% of the wagers placed on the total came in on the Under.

Wisconsin vs. Purdue game info

  • When: Friday, Sept. 22 at 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana
  • How to watch: FS1
  • Weather: 78 degrees, 11% chance of precipitation, 8-mph winds,

Wisconsin-Purdue prediction made Wednesday, 9/20/23 at 2:46 p.m. ET.

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