College Football Player Props Week 1: Predictions, Picks for Saturday

Week 1 of the college football season is underway as Shane Jackson offers his top college football player prop for Saturday's Week 1 games based on the best NCAAF odds.

College football remains on center stage as part of five straight days of games.

After mostly focusing on main markets in previous seasons, I'm planning to do more prop betting in 2023. Our best sports betting apps continue to offer more betting options each year, and it would be foolish to not take advantage.

I play in multiple college football fantasy leagues and certainly am familiar with betting/making projections, so I don't expect this to be too much of an adjustment. But it will be interesting to see how I mold my process over the next several weeks, and hopefully, we can all cash plenty of bets along the way.

After nailing a couple of winners Thursday night, and one more on Friday night, let's dive into my favorite college football player props for Saturday's slate.

Here are our best college football player props (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football player props for Week 1

• Prop: Dakereon Joyner Over 49.5 rushing yards vs. North Carolina (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Prop: Tre Mosley Under 60.5 receiving yards vs. Central Michigan (-115 via DraftKings)  ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
• Prop: RJ Harvey Over 76.5 rushing yards vs. Kent State (-120 via DraftKings)  ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
• SGP: Harvey Over 75.5 rushing yards and score a touchdown (+134 via Barstool) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️

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College football player props for Saturday Week 1

Dakereon Joyner Over 49.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

I'm writing this while Colorado's Travis Hunter is delivering as a receiver and cornerback against TCU, but get ready for another incredible story about positional versatility Saturday evening.

Dakereon Joyner, who has played both receiver and quarterback in his collegiate career, converted to running back to earn the starting job entering his final season. He earned a share of the team's Most Improved Award in spring ball, and reports have been glowing about his transition to tailback.

Joyner also has experience shredding the North Carolina defense. In a game he started at quarterback, Joyner was named the MVP of the Duke's Mayo Bowl win over UNC after completing all nine of his pass attempts for 160 yards. He added 64 yards on 10 rushing attempts in that game.

For his career, Joyner has 325 yards and four touchdowns on 64 rushing attempts. We expect him to hit the ground running in his first official start at RB, projecting him with closer to 70 yards against a Tar Heels defense that surrendered 165.2 rushing yards per game last year.

With Joyner just needing 50 yards to get this wager home, we are happy to take this bet to help enjoy what should be the best game of Saturday's slate.

Saturday's college football best bet made 09/02/2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

College football player props for Friday Week 1

Tre Mosley Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️

It might be time for fifth-year receiver Tre Mosley to become Michigan State's alpha, but that doesn't necessarily warrant this high of a total. This is more than 10 yards higher than the total we are projecting Mosley to finish with in the opener.

Mosley has caught at least one pass in 33 different games for the Spartans, but he's cleared this mark only four times. Mosley has just five games where he has recorded at least five catches for MSU.

Replacing Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman is no easy task, and certainly will be more difficult with Mosley's matchup in Week 1. Central Michigan's Donte Kent was a first team All-Mid American Conference cornerback in 2022 as a sophomore, ranking ninth in the nation in passes defended (15, 1.4 per game) to go along with a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 77.8.

That's all before we even get into Michigan State's quarterback concerns, with redshirt junior Noah Kim and redshirt freshman Katin House locked in a two-man battle for the starting job after Payton Thorne transferred to Auburn in April.

Caesars has this same Under priced with -151 juice, so we are taking advantage of the discount on DraftKings. 

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Friday's college football best bets made 09/01/2023 at 11:05 a.m. ET.

College football player props for Thursday Week 1

RJ Harvey Over 76.5 rushing yards vs. Kent State (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️

RJ Harvey enters the 2023 season as the starting running back for Central Florida, and he might not have to look over his shoulder much. In this week's depth chart, there wasn't an OR in the running back room with Harvey clearly ahead of Johnny Richardson and others.

That's good news for Harvey, who came on late last season and earned three starts while playing in 13 games. He was named All-AAC second team after finishing with 796 yards on 118 attempts (6.7 yards per carry) to go along with five touchdowns. Harvey cleared this mark three straight weeks last season during a stretch against Cincinnati (84 yards on 18 attempts), Memphis (151 yards on 17 attempts), and Tulane (83 yards on 12 attempts).

Harvey didn't play in the opener against South Carolina State, when Guz Malzahn gave his top back 22 carries that led to just 74 yards. We expect a similar emphasis on the ground against Kent State in a game the Golden Knights are favored by more than five touchdowns.

I project Harvey to clear this total with relative ease before UCF eventually lets up in preparation for a Week 2 trip to Boise State. Barstool offers the lowest total at 75.5 rushing yards, but the vig is -125. Caesars offers similar juice as DraftKings, but has the rushing prop set north of 80 yards.

As a result, DraftKings offers the best deal on UCF's starting running back.

RJ Harvey Over 75.5 rushing yards and to score a touchdown vs. Kent State (+134 via Barstool) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️

I plan to split one unit between these two picks, but they are obviously somewhat related. DraftKings and FanDuel both offer same-game parlays, but you have to shop the alternate rushing markets. That forces us to pick 80-plus rushing yards or 70-plus rushing yards for Harvey to make our SGP.

Instead, we will stick with the original rushing prop by playing this at Barstool. While I project Harvey to have a big night, there is always a chance that UCF opts to play its backups sooner than anticipated, making every yard count.

More importantly, Harvey is -260 to score a touchdown at Barstool, while being listed at -650 at FanDuel. While the best sportsbooks deserve credit for having touchdown props, it's on us to take advantage of these price discrepancies. 

According to collegefootballdata.com, Harvey's rushing usage was 22% last year, which was the same as quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. With Isaiah Bowser and his 34% rushing usage out of the picture, we expect Harvey to be the primary option out of the backfield. That should lead to more opportunities in the red zone for a team that averaged 2.5 rushing touchdowns per game last season. 

Harvey is +310 to score the first touchdown and +105 to score multiple times, per FanDuel, but we'd rather just count on him to find paydirt once in the opener.

Thursday's college football best bets made 08/31/2023 at 2:05 p.m. ET.

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