College Football Best Bets, Odds for Friday Week 5: Will Oregon State Air it Out vs. Stout Utah Front?

One of the Week 5 matchups featuring ranked teams is highlighted in our college football best bets for Friday.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 29, 2023 1:29 PM EDT • 7 minute read

A custom graphic of College football best bets — College football best bets

Four college football games will be the perfect appetizer for a loaded weekend slate, and we have you covered with our college football best bets for Friday of Week 5 based on the leading NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.

Friday's action kicks off with an exciting ACC matchup between two teams that are a combined 3-0 in conference play, with NC State hosting Louisville.

Then, there's one of four ranked vs. ranked matchups in Week 5, as the No. 10 Utah Utes are road underdogs at the No. 19 Oregon State Beavers in Corvallis.

Finishing off the solid Friday slate are enticing coin-flip CUSA and Big 12 matchups, as each game comes with a two-point spread or lower as part of our college football predictions for Week 5.

Let's dive into our college football best bets for the Friday of Week 5 (odds via our best college football betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football best bets for Friday: Week 5

Jamari Thrash (Louisville) Under 89.5 receiving yards vs. NC State (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
D.J. Uiagalelei (Oregon State) Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Utah (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Louisiana Tech Under 26.5 team total points vs. UTEP (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cincinnati-BYU Under 49 (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Week 5 college football schedule and odds for Friday

(Odds via Caesars)

College football predictions

Jamari Thrash (Louisville) Over 50.5 receiving yards vs. NC State (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There's a must-see individual matchup on the outside in this contest, as Louisville’s leading receiver Jamari Thrash lines up opposite one of the best cornerbacks he'll oppose during 2023 in NC State’s Aydan White.

White tied for sixth among Power Five cornerbacks during 2022 with four interceptions while allowing a 46.8 passer rating when targeted, according to PFF. Thrash, a transfer from Georgia State, has acclimated nicely to the Cardinals’ new system, as his 19 receptions are eight more than the next closest teammate, and his 400 receiving yards are more than double Ahmari Huggins-Bruce’s 173. However, we trust White’s lock-down ability in coverage.

NC State lost arguably its best defenders at all three levels in 2022 (sacks leader Drake Thomas, best run defender Isaiah Moore, and ball-hawking safety Tanner Ingle). Thus, we expect Louisville to attack NC State like Notre Dame did during a 45-24 victory, wearing it down with a running game that churned out 170 yards on 4.6 per carry. The Wolfpack have allowed a 100-yard receiver in three of their four games, but Thrash won't add to that on White’s watch. White played the most coverage snaps (482) without allowing a touchdown in 2022.

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This is a four-star play because of the outstanding value found at FanDuel, as we would likely have made this more of a three-star play if the 82.5 total at DraftKings or bet365 was the only option.

D.J. Uiagalelei Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Utah (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Utah brings the nation’s fourth-best run defense (51.0 yards per game) into a top-20 clash with Oregon State, a team that ranks 10th nationally in rushing yards per game (224.8) thanks to the physicality of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, especially in the red zone.

Uiagalelei has logged a team-high five rushing touchdowns versus seven passing. And while the signal-caller has produced multiple passing touchdowns in half of his last 16 starts dating back to 2022, we expect the Oregon State coaching staff to let him air it out more than usual instead of challenging Utah’s strength. In Week 4, Utes defensive end Jonah Elliss recorded a run defense grade of 91.2 and an overall grade of 92, the second-highest among all defensive ends in the country last week, according to 247Sports’ Steve Bartle.

Oregon State has been given a team total of 23.5 points and an O/U of 2.5 team touchdowns. So we're getting decent value at plus-money odds on the majority of Oregon State’s projected touchdowns coming through the air. With Caesars and DraftKings offering odds of +136 and +145, respectively, head to bet365 for the best price.

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Louisiana Tech Under 26.5 team total points vs. UTEP (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

UTEP shouldn't be undervalued due to its lack of success against stronger competition, as the team is an experienced bunch that's strong in the trenches. The Miners returned eight defensive players who totaled 200-plus snaps in 2022 from a unit that ranked second in the conference in rush defense (136.0 yards per game) and total defense (352.9 yards per game).

One of the most significant reasons we like UTEP to play well defensively is that it's well-positioned to play keep-away. The team's offensive line features four returning starters from 2022, and it's facing a Louisiana Tech defense that ranks below average in several key categories, including stuff rate, line yards per rush, explosiveness, and passing explosiveness, according to College Football Data.

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The game has likely been circled on UTEP's calendar for a while, and it's a winnable contest for the Miners as slight home favorites against a team they've dropped nine of their last 10 meetings against. We're even more encouraged to make this a four-star play, as the Bulldogs’ O/U for total touchdowns is 3.5 and juiced heavily to the Under (-190).

bet365 is featuring a different spin on this team total, offering a “team points 3-Way” with -115 juice to back the Under of 27. The slight extra juice accounts for this bet losing with the slim possibility the Bulldogs score exactly 27 points. But as Under backers, we're getting better value through DraftKings’ -110 price to go Under the team total of 26.5.

Cincinnati-BYU Under 49 (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cincinnati totaled just six points in its highly anticipated Big 12 opener during Week 4. It became the latest victim of an Oklahoma defense that's allowed just 34 points and three touchdowns through four games.

The game against the Sooners aside, the Bearcats' offense was always predicted to get off to a slow start after returning just three starters from 2022. Emory Jones, a transfer from Arizona State and Florida, has still not developed as a passer at the pace hoped from a sixth-year player. He's completed just 62.1% of his pass attempts while posting a 7:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Jones has directed the Bearcats to ranking 59th in explosiveness and 25th in passing downs success rate. But defenses aren't respecting his arm entirely, as the team barely cracks the top 50 in stuff rate.

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Conversely, Cincinnati went into Week 4 ranked 10th in the nation in havoc rate, and it held two of its toughest opponents (Pittsburgh and Miami (OH)) to 3.5 yards or fewer rushing. The Bearcats' defense should hold up physically against a BYU team that's been struggling to protect quarterback Kedon Slovis, who was under pressure on 40% of his dropbacks before the Kansas game (the Jayhawks sacked him three times and notched seven tackles for a loss).

We're paying up slightly in juice while making this wager at BetRivers, the only shop offering a total higher than 48.5.

College football best bets made 9/27/2023 at 4:13 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”