College Football Player Props & Best Bets, Odds for Saturday Week 12: Will Penix Jr. Stumble in Corvallis?

It’s the second-last Saturday with a full schedule of college football games, and we have you covered with a quartet of college football best bets for Week 12 based on the best NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.

Several high-profile college football matchups during the next couple of weeks will help shape the College Football Playoff picture and determine the odds for the College Football Championship.

However, we wonder about the potential chaos that the CFP committee could face with five undefeated Power Five teams entering Week 12 and multiple solid one-loss teams (Oregon, Texas, Alabama) with impressive resumes.

As part of our college football predictions for Week 12, here are our college football best bets for Saturday of Week 12, and don't miss Shane Jackson's college football player props (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football best bets for Saturday: Week 12

• Ricky Pearsall (Florida) anytime touchdown scorer vs. Missouri (+137 via bet365)  ⭐⭐⭐
• Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) Under 318.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Coastal Carolina team total Under 22.5 vs. Army (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• NC State +3 vs. Virginia Tech (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Week 12 college football schedule and odds for Saturday

Odds via DraftKings as of Thursday at 4:20 p.m. ET

• Louisville vs. Miami (-1)
• Utah vs. Arizona (-1)
• Georgia (-10.5) vs. Tennessee 
• North Carolina vs. Clemson (-7)
• Kansas State (-8) vs. Kansas 
• Washington vs. Oregon State (-2.5)
• Texas (-7.5) vs. Iowa State

College football player props

Ricky Pearsall (Florida) anytime touchdown scorer vs. Missouri (+137 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Florida Gators wide receiver Ricky Pearsall leads the team with 62 receptions and 876 receiving yards (the next closest player has 479 yards). Pearsall will be motivated to accrue at least 124 more yards over the next two weeks, as no Gators player has finished a season with 1,000-plus receiving yards since Taylor Jacobs in 2002.

There is no doubt that head coach Billy Napier will want Pearsall as close to the 1,000-yard plateau as possible entering next week's tough challenge against Florida State. We expect the coaching staff to devise a game plan to look Pearsall's way in the red zone, where he will look to add to his four touchdown receptions on the season.

Missouri allows an average of 241.8 receiving yards per game to FBS opponents, and Florida quarterback Graham Mertz has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of the last six games, so Pearsall should have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.

Pearsall's anytime touchdown odds are as low as +110 at FanDuel, so we are getting great value via the +137 price at bet365. DraftKings has the next-closest odds at +135, but it limits the market for Pearsall only to score a receiving touchdown, while bet365's anytime touchdown odds leave the door open for any potential gadget plays in the running game.

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Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) Under 318.5 passing yards vs. Oregon State (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Michael Penix Jr. has fallen to third on the Heisman Trophy odds leaderboard at DraftKings, and perhaps oddsmakers have foreshadowed his tumble with what they expect will be a subpar performance in Corvallis.  

All of Penix's numbers (passer rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD-INT ratio) are better on the road than at home. Much of that has to do with a brutal home schedule that featured games against stingy Utah and Oregon defenses. Penix has averaged 296.7 yards per game and completed 62.4% of his passes (lower than his 68% season average) in three starts against top-25 competition.

Now he faces a Beavers defense that ranks in the top 25 in Passing Downs Explosiveness, Pass EPA, and Points per Opportunity. This is also a confident four-star play, as the fact that Oregon State is favored suggests it is not as likely to get in a shootout with the Huskies, which lowers Washington's offensive ceiling.

All of our other best sports betting apps have an O/U of 317.5 for Penix's passing yards, so we are getting slightly better value at FanDuel.

For more on this matchup, see Phil Wood's Washington vs. Oregon State predictions.

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College football game picks

Coastal Carolina team total Under 22.5 vs. Army (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Coastal Carolina's injured starting quarterback Grayson McCall has already been ruled out for his fourth straight game this weekend. Chanticleers head coach Tim Beck has already announced he is riding with third-string QB Ethan Vasko as this week's starter, while second-stringer Jarrett Guest will be available.

Vasko ranks worst among all three quarterbacks in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating, and he has a worse TD-INT ratio than Guest (3-1 compared to 4-1). In addition, we expect Army to do a great job of playing keep-away from Coastal Carolina and control the time of possession, considering the Chanticleers' defense ranks 90th or worse in yards per carry, Rush Play Success Rate, and Line Yards. Lastly, this is a four-star play as there should be a look-ahead factor with Coastal Carolina ending the season against the currently unbeaten James Madison.

We are making this wager at DraftKings since bet365 only offers comparable odds at an O/U of 20.5 and 23.5. DraftKings has its price of Under 23.5 set at -115, but since football scores hardly ever land on 23, we see much more value in the plus-money odds with the Under of 22.5.

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NC State +3 vs. Virginia Tech (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NC State has come on strong at the end of the season, winning four of its previous five games. It has two excusable losses to Notre Dame and Louisville, but the Louisville loss was by just three points, and the Wolfpack are the only team to hold the Cardinals to fewer than 21 points.

NC State's defensive prowess is a big reason for its surge, holding its last three opponents to an average of 9.7 points. The Wolfpack are PFF's No. 2 ranked team in terms of tackling, and they rank in the top 25 in Line Yards, Stuff Rate, and EPA/Play Allowed. Thus, the Hokies should find little success in the running game, and we do not trust Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones and his low 7.1 yards per attempt average to move the ball through the air consistently. In addition, NC State should have a significant advantage in the red zone, as Virginia Tech's defense ranks outside the top 120 in Finishing Drives.

BetMGM and DraftKings are the only sportsbooks offering better than standard -110 odds to back the underdogs with your college football upset picks.

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College football best bets made 11/16/2023 at 4:03 p.m. ET.

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