College Football Week 4 Against the Spread Picks for Marquee Games
It's a slate full of AP Top 25 conference matchups, and our Week 4 college football predictions highlight the best games on the schedule.
Although Ohio State's matchup with Marshall isn't one of the must-watch games of the week, it's another chance to get a look at the college football championship odds favorite as it comes out of a bye.
The Buckeyes sit atop the College Football Playoff odds, and Louisville is hoping to join them as one of the ACC's top contenders. A win over Georgia Tech would go a long way in getting the Cardinals the buzz they deserve.
However, Miami's the only ACC team that's minus-money to reach the CFP, and that likely won't change this week with Heisman Trophy odds front-runner Cam Ward at QB.
The Hurricanes are 16.5-point favorites against South Florida at our college football betting sites.
College football ATS picks Week 4: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Stanford vs. Syracuse | Syracuse (-10) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Illinois vs. Nebraska | Nebraska (-10) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Marshall vs. Ohio State | Ohio State (-40) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| NC State vs. Clemson | Clemson (-20.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Florida vs. Mississippi State | Florida (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kansas vs. West Virginia | Kansas (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| USC vs. Michigan | Michigan (+5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| UCLA vs. LSU | LSU (-24.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Miami (Ohio) vs. Notre Dame | Notre Dame (-28) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Georgia Tech vs. Louisville | Louisville (-10.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Arkansas vs. Auburn | Arkansas (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech | Rutgers (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Utah vs. Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| TCU vs. SMU | TCU (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| California vs. Florida State | Florida State (-2) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Miami vs. South Florida | Miami (-16.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tennessee vs. Oklahoma | Oklahoma (+7) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Iowa vs. Minnesota | Iowa (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Baylor vs. Colorado | Baylor (+2) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kansas State vs. BYU | Kansas State (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
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My favorite ATS picks this week
College football picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Marshall vs. Ohio State (-39.5)
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
While Ryan Day's new-look Buckeyes have yet to play a Power 4 opponent, they've been bludgeoning the Group of Five teams on their schedule. Ohio State outscored Akron and Western Michigan 108-6, and Marshall's next.
The Thundering Herd are 91st in SP+ and head coach Charles Huff is already on the hot seat. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are first in SP+ behind their top-ranked defense.
Marshall's offense doesn't stand a chance - it ranks 101st in EPA per dropback. And the defense won't be much better against an Ohio State offense that's fourth in the country in points per game (54.0).
If the Buckeyes win by 40-plus for the third straight game, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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Georgia Tech vs. Louisville (-10.5)
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
Louisville quietly looks like it could be the biggest threat to Miami's ACC title chase. Head coach Jeff Brohm once again has built an impressive team via the transfer portal.
QB Tyler Shough (Texas Tech) and wide receiver Ja'Corey Brooks (Alabama) have Louisville ranked 16th in SP+. That spells trouble for a Georgia Tech team that's 82nd in SP+ on defense and 94th in EPA per dropback.
The Yellow Jackets' win over Florida State looks a lot less impressive now and they're in for a long game against a well-rounded Cardinals team. They're 18th in SP+ on defense.
If Louisville covers for the third time in three games, a $10 bet pays a $9.26 profit.
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Miami (-16.5) vs. South Florida
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
The two best QBs in Florida are at these two programs, but for as good as Byrum Brown is, South Florida's not going to be able to stop Ward.
Behind Ward's electric playmaking, the Hurricanes are sixth in EPA per play and eighth in SP+ on offense. And he's second in the country in big-time throws (9), per PFF.
The Bulls' defense is just 108th in SP+, and while its offense is much better (43rd), Miami has a defense loaded with future NFL players that ranks sixth in EPA per play.
If Miami covers, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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College football betting odds pages
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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