College Football National Championship Odds: Betting Takeaways from the Preseason AP Top 25

While the preseason AP Top 25 poll can help inform fans (and bettors) which teams are the strongest heading into the season, it's not always the best indicator for which programs are the best to back when placing wagers on the college football national championship odds.

Last year, 13 of 25 teams in the final AP Top 25 poll began the year unranked, including four College Football Playoff teams (Arizona State, Boise State, Indiana, SMU), while Florida State was in the preseason top 10 and went 2-10. 

The preseason AP Top 25 shouldn't be treated as gospel, but it can provide useful guidance when considering which college football national championship odds contenders to bet on.

🏈 Full 2025 preseason AP Top 25 poll

The preseason AP Top 25 was released on Aug. 11. The over 60 AP Top 25 voters are made up of journalists across the country covering college football. The college football national championship odds are via our best college football betting sites.

📊 Preseason AP Top 25 takeaways to consider before you bet

• Only two of the last 21 preseason No. 1 teams in the AP Top 25 have gone on to win the national championship
• In 19 of the past 21 years, every national champion ranked among the AP preseason's top seven teams
• During the College Football Playoff era (2014-present), either the preseason No. 2 or No. 3 team won the national championship in seven of 11 seasons
• Georgia is the only program during the College Football Playoff era to win back-to-back titles, and neither title-winning team was the preseason No. 1 in the AP Top 25
• The distinction of being the preseason No. 1 team during the College Football Playoff era has gone to the SEC seven times, the ACC three times, and the Big Ten once - the SEC has won six titles during that time, with the Big Ten taking four and the ACC earning two
• In 21 of the last 22 seasons, at least one preseason top 10 team finished the year unranked
• At least one team that started unranked in the preseason finished in the top 10 of the final AP Poll in 29 of the last 31 years
• In three of the last four seasons, the preseason to final AP Top 25 poll turnover is over 50% and the trend has gradually increased since 1989 (the beginning of the AP Top 25 era)
• The preseason to final AP Top 25 poll turnover has been at least 32% every season since 2012, with 2022 having the highest turnover (60%, 15 teams)

🏆 CFP era: Preseason No. 1 teams vs. national champions

🔮 National championship prediction based on AP Top 25 historical trends

🦁 Penn State 

Between the preseason No. 1's history of falling short, and the lack of back-to-back champs, Texas and Ohio State have a lot working against them based on historical trends. Meanwhile, Penn State is ranked preseason No. 2, the slot of the last two national champions at the beginning of the season. The Nittany Lions also hail from the conference that's won the last two national titles, the Big Ten.

Although Penn State lost several key contributors to the NFL draft, it's still No. 33 in the country in returning production (No. 14 on offense), ranked No. 3 in SP+ heading into the season, and brings back a Heisman Trophy odds contender in QB Drew Allar. The former five-star recruit is surrounded by talent, too, with one of the best running back tandems in the country (Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen), an offensive line with multiple All-American candidates (Drew Shelton, Olaivavega Ioane), and a reloaded wide receiver room (Trebor Pena, Devonte Ross, Kyron Hudson).

James Franklin hired Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to lead his defense after Knowles helped the Buckeyes win a title. The former Buckeyes play-caller inherits a defense full of NFL talents like Zakee Wheatley, A.J. Harris, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zane Durant, and North Carolina transfer Amare Campbell.

Everything is there talent-wise for Penn State to win a national title, but remember, Franklin is one of just 10 active head coaches who has started the year ranked in the preseason top 10 only to finish the year unranked (2020).

✅ Best national championship odds: +700 via DraftKings ($10 to win $70)

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💡 Unranked teams with the shortest national championship odds

Recent college football history says that at least one unranked team will likely finish ranked in the final AP Top 25 poll, which means a probable College Football Playoff bid. Four teams pulled the feat of going from unranked in the preseason to making the 12-team playoff last year, so which programs should you focus your College Football Playoff odds bets on?

🟥 Louisville

Jeff Brohm continues to lure quarterbacks from the transfer portal, this time bringing in Miller Moss from USC. Moss joins an offense that has plenty of explosiveness on offense in running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson, and wide receivers Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy. The defense filled gaps in the portal, too, with additions like Wesley Bailey (Rutgers), Clev Lubin (Coastal Carolina), and JoJo Evans (FIU). In a weak ACC, Louisville could be in contention for a College Football Playoff spot. 

✅ Best College Football Playoff odds: +380 via Caesars ($10 to win $38)

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🏔️ Utah

After back-to-back 10-win seasons that led to Rose Bowl appearances, Utah has struggled the last two years. But it looks like Kyle Whittingham has solved his QB issue by bringing in New Mexico duel-threat Devon Dampier and his offensive coordinator Jason Beck. Dampier's legs should make a huge difference for a Utes offense that has the best offensive tackle tandem in the nation (Spencer Fano, Caleb Lomu). Utah's defense should be better too - it's No. 16 in SP+ heading into the season - with Lander Barton and Tao Johnson back. The Big 12 is deep, but we just saw Arizona State come out of nowhere to win it last year.

✅ Best College Football Playoff odds: +450 via Caesars ($10 to win $45)

🌽 Nebraska

Last year, it was Indiana jumping from unranked to the College Football Playoff in the Big Ten. Could it be Nebraska this year? The Cornhuskers are top 30 in returning production on offense, with sophomore QB Dylan Raiola expected to take a major jump thanks to Matt Rhule bringing in transfers like Dane Key (Kentucky), Nyziah Hunter (California), Elijah Pritchett (Alabama), and Rocco Spindler (Notre Dame). The defense is no joke either, it's No. 17 in SP+, with Ceyair Wright and DeShon Singleton leading the charge.

✅ Best College Football Playoff odds: +900 via DraftKings ($10 to win $90)

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