Louisville vs. NC State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 5: Plummer Should Plunder Wolfpack Defense
We focus on a player prop in our Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack prediction, based on the best college football odds.
The Cardinals have been on a roll offensively to start the season, but can Louisville (4-0) keep that going when it visits NC State (3-1) Friday night?
If the Cardinals' offense continues to find scoring opportunities, quarterback Jack Plummer will be the reason they finish off drives with touchdowns.
| Market | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite ATS | Louisville -3.5 (-110) | Louisville -3.5 (-104) | Louisville -3.5 (-110) | Louisville -3.5 (-110) | Louisville -3.5 (-110) |
| Underdog ATS | NC State +3.5 (-110) | NC State +3.5 (-118) | NC State +3.5 (-110) | NC State +3.5 (-110) | NC State +3.5 (-110) |
| Favorite ML | Louisville -192 | Louisville -172 | Louisville -175 | Louisville -180 | Louisville -170 |
| Underdog ML | NC State +160 | NC State +142 | NC State +145 | NC State +152 | NC State +150 |
| Over | O55.5 (-110) | O55.5 (-104) | O55.5 (-110) | O55.5 (-110) | O55.5 (-110) |
| Under | U55.5 (-110) | U55.5 (-118) | U55.5 (-110) | U55.5 (-110) | O55.5 (-110) |
To accompany our college football predictions for Week 5, here is our best Louisville vs. NC State prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Louisville vs. NC State prediction
Jack Plummer Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+170 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
NC State ranks a respectable 57th in pass defense, allowing 223.3 air yards per game. But when it comes down to the red zone, teams found it preferable to attack the Wolfpack with the pass. Over the past three weeks, NC State allowed seven passing touchdowns to only two rushing scores.
Louisville's offense behind Plummer aligns solidly with a pass-first preference on scoring drives. The Cardinals’ scoring splits in games against power conference opponents lean toward the pass, with nine passing TDs to six rushing TDs.
The Wolfpack sit in the middle across college football defensively, ranking 56th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Louisville boasted one of the sports' more explosive offenses, ranking an FBS seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency. Plummer is the guide, loading up for five passing scores against Boston College last weekend.
For a game where the total rose between 5 and 6 points since it opened at 49.5, Louisville projects to score nearly 30 points as a road favorite. With attractive plus-money odds, Plummer should be the primary engine that gets this Cardinals' offense into the end zone.
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Louisville vs. NC State best odds
bet365 (+170)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Pass TDs | Over 1.5 Pass TDs | N/A | Over 1.5 Pass TDs | Over 2.5 Pass TDs |
| +160 | -182 | N/A | -214 | +170 |
Take the more aggressive approach to Plummer’s passing-touchdown total, as you can snag enticing plus-money odds on Over 2.5 TDs at DraftKings and bet365. Either option offers quality odds, but bet365 takes the cake at +170.
If you’re less adventurous, FanDuel and Caesars offer the line at Over/Under 1.5 passing TDs. Avoid the -214 odds at Caesars, but FanDuel’s -182 offer is worth pursuing at that price.
Louisville vs. NC State odds
Louisville vs. NC State odds analysis
Louisville opened as a 3-point road favorite and hasn't moved off that number at the majority of our Kentucky sportsbooks despite a hefty majority of bettors siding with the Cardinals. Only BetMGM pushed the line to -3.5 as of this writing.
The total opened at 49.5 and caught some significant helium up to between 54.5 and 55.5 across our Kentucky sports betting apps. Even accounting for the massive movement, 60% of the wagers still came in on the Over.
Louisville vs. NC State game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 29, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 71 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, 8-mph winds
Louisville-NC State prediction made Wednesday, 9/27/23 at 3:06 p.m. ET.
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