Kansas vs. BYU Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 12

Jalon Daniels faces the ideal matchup to keep running wild as part of our Kansas vs. BYU prediction.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 16, 2024 10:18 AM EST • 5 minute read

Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels waits to take the field before the start of a game against the Kansas State Wildcats as we look at our Kansas vs. BYU prediction. — Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels waits to take the field before the start of a game against the Kansas State Wildcats. Photo by Scott Sewell/Imagn Images.

The BYU Cougars are one of four remaining unbeaten teams in the country, and they try to maintain sole possession of first place in the Big 12 as home favorites against the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday night.

Despite being undefeated, BYU sits second in the Big 12 championship odds
Four of BYU’s nine wins have come by six or fewer points
Kansas is playing its third consecutive AP top-17 opponent

Our Kansas vs. BYU prediction recognizes the respect that oddsmakers at our best sportsbooks are giving the Jayhawks as relatively short road underdogs. That has us fading the unbeaten Cougars with our most confident five-star play.

BYU is a unanimous 2.5-point favorite, with the kickoff from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo set for 10:15 p.m. ET and airing on ESPN.

Let's dive in and explore why we also made the case for Kansas to pull off the outright upset in our college football upset picks for Week 12.

Best Kansas vs. BYU picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Against the spread pick: Kansas +2.5 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. BYU ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
My best bet: Jalon Daniels Over 35.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kansas vs. BYU against the spread prediction: Week 12

Kansas to cover the spread: +2.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kansas vs. BYU opening odds:

Kansas: +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
BYU: -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

BYU’s luck should regress

BYU has been one of the more fortunate teams in the country, and not just the Big 12.

Over their last three games, the Cougars have logged wins against Oklahoma State and Utah teams that are a combined 1-12 in Big 12 play. They're extremely fortunate to have won both.

BYU needed a 35-yard touchdown pass with 10 seconds left to beat the Cowboys at home. And a game-winning drive against Utah included a questionable defensive penalty on a fourth-down attempt.

If every one-score game this season had gone the other way, Kansas would be 5-1 in conference play, while BYU would be 3-3.

While most praise BYU for its ability to keep scratching out close wins, I err on the pessimistic side. That tendency will bite the Cougars soon, and perhaps as early as this week.

Metrics don’t love the Cougars

Despite SP+ giving BYU a 49.9% chance to win the Big 12 thanks largely to its undefeated record, not everyone shares that optimism.

The Cougars were road underdogs against a now 4-6 UCF team just two weeks ago. And DraftKings is among our best sports betting apps that still give Colorado a better chance to win the conference.

Meanwhile, Kansas was so close to entering this game off back-to-back upsets of ranked teams. Prior to its 45-36 win over Iowa State, the Jayhawks led current No. 16 Kansas State with less than two minutes to go before the Wildcats escaped with a 29-27 home victory.

Kansas’ dynamic offense

Prior to racking up 532 yards of total offense and hanging 45 points on Iowa State, the Jayhawks entered last week ranked in the top three nationally in line yards and finishing drives.

Meanwhile, BYU’s metrics don't necessarily scream “unbeaten.” The Cougars entered last week ranked outside the top 50 in line yards and passing success, and defensively they were 75th or worse in finishing drives, rush success, and line yards.

The betting support throughout the week has come in droves on the underdogs at our best sportsbooks, enough to move the line from +3.5 through the key number of three and down to +2.5. While we're not getting the same value that was available earlier in the week, the movement makes me even more confident the Jayhawks will cover and pull off the outright upset.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Kansas vs. BYU best bet

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Jalon Daniels Over 35.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kansas has faced its two toughest opponents in the last two weeks (Kansas State and Iowa State), and the team has called Daniels’ number the most it has all season to combat the step up in competition.

Daniels has recorded 12 and 15 carries over the last two weeks, which has resulted in his two-highest rushing totals of the season (66 and 68 yards).

He should be in for another big day on the ground, as the way to beat the Cougars' defense is through the running game. BYU’s unit entered last week ranked 12th in pass success and second in creating contested catches. But it was outside the top 100 in broken tackles and explosive rush success allowed.

The best number for Over backers here is at FanDuel, as Caesars offers a slightly higher total (37.5). Through FanDuel’s -114 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.77 for our of your college football Week 12 predictions.

Our Shane Jackson is also eyeing Daniels as part of his college football Week 12 player prop bets.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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Kansas vs. BYU odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Kansas vs. BYU game info

When: Saturday, Nov. 16
Kickoff: 10:15 p.m. ET
Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo, Utah)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 32 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 3-mph W
Favorite: BYU -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”