Heisman Trophy Odds 2025: Is Julian Sayin or Fernando Mendoza the Best Bet to Win Award?

There are just three weeks left in the regular season before conference championship weekend, and it's become increasingly clear that one of the two players atop the Heisman Trophy odds will take home college football's top honor.

This college football season has been defined by Ohio State's dominance in its title defense and Indiana's breakthrough in Year 2 under head coach Curt Cignetti, with both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers led by the most efficient QBs in the country. So, who's the best bet to hoist up the Heisman Trophy on Dec. 13: Ohio State's Julian Sayin (+180) or Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (+190)?

 📊 Live Heisman Trophy odds 2025

Our 2025 Heisman Trophy odds update in real time based on the latest college football odds.

🏆 Sayin vs. Mendoza: Who’s the best bet to win the Heisman Trophy?

Though a lot could change over the last three weeks of the regular season, it seems safe to say we know which four players will be in New York City as this year's Heisman Trophy finalists. Sayin, Mendoza, Alabama's Ty Simpson (+550), and Texas A&M's Marcel Reed (+800) are the only four players with shorter than +2500 Heisman Trophy odds. 

There's a strong shot we'll even get Sayin vs. Mendoza in the Big Ten Championship and Simpson vs. Reed in the SEC Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7. Heisman Trophy ballots go out to voters on Monday, Dec. 1, and won't be due until Sunday, Dec. 8, so the results of those conference championships could sway voters.

For now, the general public seems to feel this Heisman race is still wide open between the four with Sayin and Reed earning the "public" vote after Week 11:

However, with Sayin's efficiency over the last few weeks keeping the Buckeyes atop the college football national championship odds and Mendoza's heroics for a non-traditional program, the two Big Ten stars appear to have separated themselves in the Heisman race. 

📈 Who has the statistical edge?

There isn't much difference between Sayin and Mendoza when it comes to the numbers. They're two of the most accurate quarterbacks in the country, neither turn the ball over with any frequency, and they're similarly aggressive in their approaches as downfield and tight window throwers.

Both look like future first-round picks - potentially the No. 1 picks in the 2026 and 2027 NFL Draft - and both lead two of the strongest offenses in the country. Sayin's been more accurate, leading the country in both completion percentage (80.9%) and adjusted completion rate (86.3%), but he has slightly more talent around him with the best wide receiver duo in the country (Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate).

Meanwhile, Mendoza has accounted for six more total touchdowns through one more game than Sayin, and he's added significantly more as a runner than Sayin. Despite not being nearly as mobile as past Heisman winners, Mendoza's rushing numbers and advanced rushing numbers (157 rushing yards after contact, 11 forced missed tackles) blow Sayin's numbers (42 rushing yards after contact, three forced missed tackles) out of the water.

At this point, the statistics are both so close in terms of basic stats, advanced stats, and offensive efficiency that the numbers are essentially a toss-up. Given Mendoza's usefulness as a runner and the need for him to do slightly more overall as a creator to lift Indiana's offense, I'd give the edge to the Hoosiers' hucker here.

🌟 Who wins the narrative voter appeal?

As silly as it may sound, the Heisman Trophy has always been a narrative-driven award ... which is why the concept of "Heisman moments" actually matters with this award to the voters.

This isn't like a professional league's MVP. It's an award that goes to the player whom the season has been most defined by (Devonta Smith at Alabama), a player who's done something spectacular that voters will remember forever (Travis Hunter at Colorado), or a player who's so statistically dominant the voters have no choice but to vote for them (Jayden Daniels at LSU).

This year's Heisman field hasn't been particularly strong, which is why no QB is turning in a statistically dominant season to separate them in this race. And while Sayin has been special, especially late in the year, he's also played a schedule ranked No. 45 by SP+ strength of schedule. And in Ohio State's biggest game of the year, he went 13-for-20 with 126 yards and one score in a 14-7 win over Texas.

The obvious narrative choice is Mendoza. Yes, Indiana made the CFP last season, but Mendoza has taken the Hoosiers to another level this year - it's not even mid-November and Indiana, of all programs, has already had its College Football Playoff odds pulled. Plus, he's done it in flashy fashion.

Indiana's strength of schedule isn't the toughest (No. 26), but it's been harder than Ohio State's, and Mendoza has had to step up in key situations to have Heisman moments to keep the Hoosiers undefeated. Heck, there's been no bigger Heisman moment from any player this season than his last-second TD pass to Omar Cooper Jr. to save Indiana from an upset against Penn State. 

Between that touchdown pass against the Nittany Lions, the slant for a TD to Elijah Sarratt against Iowa to beat the Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium, and his back-shoulder fade to Sarratt on the road against Oregon to break a tie in the fourth quarter, Mendoza has three very clear Heisman moments already.

Sayin's remaining schedule might not provide him the opportunity to even notch one, unless Ohio State finally ends its losing streak against Michigan dramatically in a few weeks.

🎥 Who has the best remaining schedule?

Mendoza doesn't have much room to add to his resume over the Hoosiers' final two games, but he will need to continue padding his stats. Indiana's final two regular-season games are against Wisconsin and Purdue, two programs that are a combined 5-14 this season.

It's not much better the next two weeks for Sayin in terms of quality opponents, with Ohio State likely to be a 20-plus point favorite against both UCLA and Rutgers, who are a combined 8-11. However, Sayin does get to play Michigan in the Big House with a chance to end the Buckeyes' losing streak to its arch rival. If he can do that, it will be a massive boost to his resume, especially if he thrives in the game or needs to make a spectacular play late to earn a major Heisman moment.

The other obvious wrinkle here is that these are the two top teams in the Big Ten and on a collision course for the Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 6, at 8 p.m. ET on FOX. With Heisman ballots not due until the next day, the outcome of that game could break a lot of ties for voters.

We can't know for sure which team will be favored in that game, but according to CFB-Graphs, in a neutral site matchup between Indiana and Ohio State, the projected final score based on each team's advanced stats would be a 26-22 win for the Buckeyes.

So, between the Michigan game and the fact that Ohio State will likely be about a 4-point betting favorite over Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, this category goes to Sayin.

💰 Who’s the best bet to win the Heisman?

Despite Ohio State being the defending champion and remaining unbeaten behind the play of a dominant defense, the best wide receiver duo in the country, and the growth of Sayin, this season has been defined by non-traditional programs breaking out. And Indiana is chief among them.

The Hoosiers' rise to No. 2 in the country behind Heisman moments from Mendoza make him the better Heisman bet between the two. Heisman voters will appreciate the narrative aspect that comes with Mendoza, and his (and Indiana's) season has been such a pleasant surprise that the Hoosiers could probably lose the Big Ten Championship to Ohio State and he'd still win the Heisman if he plays well and keeps it close.

But if Ohio State loses that game to Indiana, there's almost no way Mendoza isn't hoisting the Heisman in New York City on Dec. 13.

I also wouldn't quite count out Simpson yet, with the Crimson Tide QB playing so well that he's the favorite to go No. 1 in April according to the 2026 NFL Draft odds. A $10 winning bet on Simpson pays a $55 profit, more than double what a winning bet on Sayin ($18) or Mendoza ($19) pays. I'd bet on Mendoza between those two, but I'd still consider a bet on Simpson at +550 via BetMGM.

Best bet to win Heisman: Fernando Mendoza (+190 via Caesars)

❓2025 Heisman Trophy FAQs

Who are the Heisman Trophy favorites?

Ohio State's Julian Sayin is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. His odds (+180) imply a 35.71% probability he'll win, according to our odds calculator. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (+190), Alabama's Ty Simpson (+550), and Texas A&M's Marcel Reed (+800) trail. 

How does Heisman Trophy voting work?

The ballots go out to Heisman Trophy voters (928 voters) on Monday, Dec. 1, and the deadline to vote is Monday, Dec. 8, with the Heisman finalists being announced that day. The finalist will receive invites to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York, which is set for Saturday, Dec. 13 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). 

When will the Heisman Trophy be decided?

The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will be Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Where will the Heisman Trophy ceremony take place?

The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will take place at Lincoln Center’s Appel Room in New York City. The venue has hosted each of the last three Heisman Trophy presentations.