Georgia vs. Alabama Early Picks, Predictions & Odds Week 5
The first matchup of AP top-four teams this season is a mammoth one this weekend, as the Alabama Crimson Tide host the Georgia Bulldogs in a rare regular-season clash.
The two schools are among the favorites in the college football championship odds.
- Both teams are coming off a bye week
- This could be the first time Alabama is a home underdog since 2007
- Georgia and Alabama’s college football playoff odds would receive a massive boost with a win, as would the Heisman odds for Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe
Our Georgia vs. Alabama early leans and odds expect the favorite to cover, especially with the continuity of the Bulldogs' roster and coaching staff.
My early Georgia vs. Alabama prediction
College football picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Georgia -1.5
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
The lookahead line was as high as Georgia -4.5 at several of our best sportsbooks (FanDuel, Caesars, and DraftKings) over the summer, and even as recently as the second week of September.
I likely wouldn't have played the Bulldogs at anything north of a field goal. But now Georgia becomes a solid play since the line seems firmly entrenched under the key number of three.
What seemed to drive the line movement was the last impression we received from each team, as Georgia narrowly avoided an upset against Kentucky and Alabama dismantled Wisconsin on the road.
However, the Bulldogs are unfairly being punished for a solid road SEC win, while the Crimson Tide’s game against the Badgers changed completely when Wisconsin quarterback Tyler Van Dyke went out early in the first quarter with a torn ACL.
Alabama may have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams, but Nick Saban roamed the sidelines for all of those games. No disrespect to Kalen DeBoer, but he isn’t Saban. Georgia holds the upper hand in this contest thanks to the consistency of its championship-level coaching staff.
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Georgia vs. Alabama live odds
See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every Week 5 game.
Moneyline
- Georgia best odds: -125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 55.56%
- Alabama best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%
Most of our best sports betting sites are aligned with the Bulldogs as -125 moneyline favorites, with bet365 being the lone exception at -130.
Georgia enters on a 42-game regular-season winning streak, including an SEC record 28 straight. So it's highly unlikely this line jumps the fence before kickoff.
Spread
BetMGM was the first of our best sports betting apps to lower to -1.5 on Monday morning, which isn't a surprise given the little support to push this line back to the key number of three.
Alabama backers should grab the +2.5 available at FanDuel, as it will likely require wagering on alternate spreads to get a number of three or better again.
Over/Under
- Over best odds: 49 (-110) via DraftKings
- Under best odds: 49.5 (-112) via FanDuel
There's not much separation in the totals among our best live betting sites. Books offering the higher O/U of 49.5 being juiced to the Under (as short as -115 at BetMGM) suggests the line is more likely to come down than it is to increase.
Such line movement would align with the trend that Georgia is 3-0 to the Under this year, while the Over has cashed in two of Alabama’s three games.
How to watch Georgia vs. Alabama
- When: Saturday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 73 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph SE
- Favorite: Georgia (-125 via BetMGM)
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