Colorado vs. UCF Prediction, Picks & Odds For Today
The UCF Knights, among the Big 12 championship odds favorites, welcome the Colorado Buffaloes to FBC Mortgage Stadium. Today's tilt represents the Buffaloes' first Big 12 road game, which comes after they required a last-gasp Hail Mary to prevail last week against Baylor.
- Colorado won in Week 4 despite seeing their win probability go down to 0.7%
- Shedeur Sanders can increase his Heisman Trophy odds with a big game against the heavily favored Knights
- The UCF Knights are 3-0, one of 26 remaining unbeaten FBS teams
Our Colorado vs. UCF prediction, accompanied by our Colorado vs. UCF early picks, focuses on the Knights' chances of covering the significant spread, which should be enhanced thanks to their feverish home support.
Best Colorado vs. UCF picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: UCF -14 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Colorado ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: RJ Harvey Over 115.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Colorado vs. UCF against the spread prediction: Week 5
UCF to cover the spread: -14 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Colorado vs. UCF opening odds:
- Colorado: +14 (-110 via BetMGM)
- UCF: -14 (-110 via BetMGM)
Usually the Buffaloes are one of college football’s most public teams, but many seemed to have soured on them lately, especially after last week’s miracle victory.
UCF gets a massive scheduling edge
The Knights benefit from enjoying a bye week last week, while the Buffaloes make the cross-country flight to play at a relatively early 3:30 p.m. ET time slot.
Colorado has covered just one of its three games when at a rest disadvantage under Coach Prime, and it's just 2-4 against the spread after a win during his tenure. Conversely, UCF is 3-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage and 5-3 ATS at home since the start of last season.
Colorado hasn’t faced an offense like UCF’s unit
We can expect points, points, and more points in this game, especially since UCF’s team total is 40.5 and its team touchdowns total is at 5.5. Colorado has allowed 28-plus points in two of its three games against FBS opponents, but neither Nebraska nor Baylor rank in the top 60 in Offensive SP+.
By contrast, UCF ranks 20th in that metric and third in the country in total offense. The Knights boast college football’s most potent rushing attack (375.7 yards per game), which is impressively ahead of the service academies known for their triple-option attacks.
UCF is a complete team
With as quickly as the Knights move on offense, it's easy to assume they would suffer defensively given how much that unit is on the field. However, UCF ranks 46th in defensive SP+ despite a leaky pass defense, and its offense is balanced with KJ Jefferson averaging 9.9 yards per dropback.
This certainly looks like a curious point spread, given that UCF’s one-point win over TCU doesn't look as good now that the Horned Frogs lost 66-42 to rival SMU last week. But I always prefer to be opposite the side that looks too good to be true.
The spread moved off the key number and away from Colorado to -14.5 throughout the week, and the line likely crept back to -14 given the ominous weather forecast (90% chance of rain) that figures to favor UCF anyway. The Buffaloes have covered their last two games by a combined 16 points, but they are outclassed in this matchup.
A $10 winning wager at BetMGM’s -110 odds would payout $19.09 as part of your college football Week 5 predictions.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Colorado vs. UCF prop pick for Week 5
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RJ Harvey Over 115.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Knights would not boast the FBS-best rushing attack if they didn't trot out mobile quarterbacks, and KJ Jefferson and company have combined to make up 20.4% of the team’s rushing yards. And while two other UCF running backs (Peny Boone and Myles Montgomery) have each rushed for 141-plus yards, the Buffaloes should expect to face a heavy dose of RJ Harvey in this game.
Harvey has run for 126-plus yards in all three games this season, and he rested during a bye after a season-high 29 carries against TCU. Harvey makes the most of his opportunities, as his 59 carries are the fifth-fewest among the 18 running backs with 400-plus rushing yards this season.
I was tempted to back his odds to score two-plus touchdowns given that he's logged multiple touchdowns in all three games this season. But those odds are even steeper (-150) than just taking his rushing total.
This is a four-star play, as it would take Harvey’s worst game of the season while facing a defense that ranks 11th in the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed per game to stay under this projected total.
A winning $10 wager would net $8.77 in profit.
Our Shane Jackson highlighted three other ways to bet this game in his Colorado vs. UCF player props.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Colorado vs. UCF odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Colorado vs. UCF game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Fla.
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 90 degrees, 90% chance of precipitation, 9-mph south winds
- Favorite: UCF (-550 via BetMGM)
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