Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Can Bulls Get Back on Track?
The Buffalo Bulls and Central Michigan Chippewas meet on Wednesday as mid-week MACtion continues. We're breaking down the betting angles with our Buffalo-Central Michigan college football picks.
Buffalo (5-4, 4-1) no longer controls its own destiny in the MAC East division after its 45-24 loss to Ohio created a three-way logjam with the Bobcats and Bowling Green. Buffalo's 21-point loss to Ohio tied the team's largest defeat in 2022, and it was the Bulls' worst since a 31-10 season-opening defeat at Maryland.
Meanwhile, Central Michigan (3-6, 2-3) has been struggling at home (1-3), with the lone win coming against FCS Bucknell. The Chippewas are looking for their first winning streak of the season after beating Northern Illinois 35-22 on the road in Week 10.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 11 game between Buffalo and Central Michigan (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick is confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our college football Week 11 roundup, games to watch, and best against-the-spread picks.
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Info
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 9, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, MI
Weather: 62 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, 7-mph south winds
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Odds
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Odds Analysis
The consensus spread opened as a pick'em but Central Michigan is a 2-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The Chippewas have drawn just 46% of the bets placed against the spread but those account for 77% of the handle.
The Over/Under ticked down from the opening line of 55.5 to 54 despite 85% of the bets accounting for 74% of the handle on the Over.
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Picks
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan ATS Pick
Central Michigan +1.5 (-115) ★★★★
When Buffalo started 3-0 in conference play, it did so for just the fourth time in program history. And while the team earned victories handily during its winning streak, this low spread suggests the oddsmakers know the Chippewas are well-positioned to be competitive, even though they're struggling at home.
Buffalo ranks below average in rushing explosiveness havoc rate (23%). Additionally, Central Michigan is the more battle-tested team after non-conference games at Penn State and Oklahoma State. They averaged 29 points per game in those losses.
Central Michigan lives for these mid-week games, going 14-1-1 against the spread in its last 16 Wednesday contests. That speaks to the coaching staff's preparation despite the unusual schedule. Expect that to pay off again in Week 11 with another cover.
Check out our Eastern Michigan-Akron picks.
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan O/U Pick
Over 54 (-110) ★★
Buffalo is one of four MAC teams averaging more than 30 points per game. While Central Michigan went a five-game stretch averaging just 18.6 points, it rebounded nicely with a 35-point explosion against Northern Illinois.
The Bulls create havoc plays on defense at a 28% rate. But like Ohio, they rank better in offensive SP+ than Defensive SP+. Buffalo's offense is 86th compared to a 108th-ranked defense, while CMU ranks 102nd and 103rd, respectively.
The Bulls are also one of two MAC teams with two running backs who have produced 500-plus rushing yards in 2022. The duo of Ron Cook Jr. and Mike Washington will move the chains consistently.
The Over has cashed in each of Buffalo's last five Wednesday games, and in 10 of Central Michigan's previous 12. Follow those trends and back another high-scoring MAC affair.
Check out our Ohio-Miami (OH) picks.
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Prop Pick
First Half Over 26.5 (-110) ★★★
This Over has also hit in five of Buffalo's last six games after a straight-up loss. The Bulls rank above average with a 15% rushing stuff rate, along with their 4.0 scoring average during opportunities.
Meanwhile, Central Michigan is also above average in passing explosiveness (1.59) and overall offensive explosiveness (1.31), according to College Football Data.
Expect plenty of points over the opening 30 minutes.
Check out our Ball State-Toledo picks.
Where to Bet on Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Buffalo-Central Michigan picks made 11/8/2022 at 5:30 a.m. ET
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