College Football Against the Spread Picks for Week 11: Backing Home Underdog

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 7, 2022 5:58 AM EST • 2 min 30 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

K.J. Jefferson of the Arkansas Razorbacks is featured in our top Week 6 college football expert picks. — K.J. Jefferson of the Arkansas Razorbacks throws a pass against the Missouri State Bears. Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images via AFP.

Three of the country's top six teams lost in Week 10, leaving just four undefeated teams entering this week. Which of the remaining unbeaten teams is vulnerable this week? Read on for our best against-the-spread bets for Week 11's college football action.

Entering Week 10, the SEC had realistic hopes of getting three teams into the College Football Playoff. But after Alabama suffered its second loss and Georgia dominated Tennessee, the conference best positioned to send two teams to the playoff is the Big Ten, as Ohio State and Michigan continue to rack up wins.

Below, we offer our top ATS bets for Week 11 in college football (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Against the Spread Bets for Week 11

Arkansas +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Michigan State -10.5 (-110 via PointsBet)
Texas -7 (-110 via FanDuel)

Week 11 Against the Spread Predictions

Arkansas +3.5 (-110) ★★★★★

LSU is coming off one of the season's biggest wins, using a gutsy two-point conversion call to down then-No. 6 Alabama. However, that was a night game in Death Valley, where the Tigers are 100-15 in their last 115 such contests.

Though LSU can smell a berth in the SEC Championship Game by controlling its own destiny in the West division, it must not overlook an Arkansas team that beat the Tigers in Baton Rouge last season.

This is undoubtedly one of the more contrarian plays of the week, as LSU looks like a completely different team after losing its season opener to Florida State. The last time the Tigers faced a mobile quarterback, Tennessee ran for 263 against them, as it had the run-pass-option game working with Hendon Hooker. They will have their hands full with Arkansas' KJ Jefferson, the Razorbacks' leading rusher in last year's victory.

Arkansas is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings with LSU and has covered five of the previous seven at home. Some sportsbooks have lowered their lines below the key number of 3, so we are headed to BetMGM for this bet, the only sportsbook offering a field goal plus the hook.

Michigan State -10.5 (-110) ★★★★

The Spartans were outrushed 276-37 by Michigan two weeks ago but stood tall against Illinois and the nation's leading rusher entering last week, Chase Brown. Michigan State benefitted from three turnovers in the red zone, and despite running 36 fewer plays, it held up in the trenches and held the Fighting Illini to 3.3 yards per carry.

Michigan State entered last week allowing 256.3 yards per game through the air and ranking outside the top 110 in passing success rate. However, Rutgers has no semblance of a passing game, ranking in the bottom 10 in the country with 156.0 yards per game.

Rutgers has been outscored 80-10 in its last two road games and was just held to 14 yards rushing against Michigan. If the Scarlet Knights can't formulate a ground game in this one, they do not stand a chance to be competitive, given how much of a dearth of skill position players they have.

Texas -7 (-110) ★★★★

Texas entered last week with a five-game road losing streak but held on to beat Kansas State and avoid a sixth loss since the start of last season when having a double-digit lead. That win looks even more impressive considering the Wildcats had taken Oklahoma State behind the woodshed in a 48-0 shutout the week prior and had starting quarterback Adrian Martinez healthy after a multi-game absence.

The Longhorns showed their offensive balance last week with three consecutive touchdown drives of eight plays and 75 yards. Bijan Robinson is arguably the best running back in the country, and he showed it last week, carving the Wildcats up for 209 yards and 7 yards per carry.

Just like being favored in Manhattan seemed like a fishy line, so does laying a touchdown against one of the four remaining unbeaten teams. However, we are buying Texas' resurgence and looking for it to win convincingly against a TCU team that has played with fire recently.

Where to Bet on College Football ATS Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

College football top ATS bets from 11/06/2022 at 6:06 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.