LSU vs. Ole Miss Prediction: College Football Week 3 Opening Odds & Early Pick
At one point in time the opening odds saw No. 8 Ole Miss as a small favorite over No. 7 LSU, but my LSU vs. Ole Miss early prediction finds more value in the total now that the line has jumped the fence.
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss., should be buzzing for this 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff (ABC), as former head coach Lane Kiffin makes his return less than a year after leaving the program. I’m expecting the familiarity between the coaches on the two sidelines to lead to a low-scoring affair.
🏈 Early LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction: Week 3
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Under 59.5 (-131 via DraftKings)
Bet size: 1 unit to win 0.76 units
Both Lane Kiffin and Pete Golding’s offenses like to play fast, and there is always a chance of a high-scoring game breaking out with Trinidad Chambliss under center. The Ole Miss quarterback finished in the top five in QBR and passing yards last season. But this will be the ultimate chess match between mentor and student as Golding was promoted from defensive coordinator under Kiffin to head coach, and each should have a leg up knowing each other’s tendencies.
It could turn out to be that Clemson’s offense isn’t very good, but what LSU’s defense did in the season opener was eye-opening. LSU held the Tigers to -0.47 EPA/play, and Clemson’s 29% success rate ranked in the second percentile.
The total has already risen from 57.5 to 59.5, so I wouldn’t put any Under backers off seeing if it goes any higher before placing their wagers. I’ll be grabbing the Under at anything at 58.5 or higher.
📡 SBR Edge: A tough mark to repeat
Trinidad Chambliss had three passing touchdowns in Week 1 that were all on throws of 20-plus yards downfield. But I'm not expecting a repeat performance against an LSU defense considering Chambliss had four such touchdown throws last season.
📊 LSU vs. Ole Miss odds & line movement: Week 3
See the latest college football odds.
LSU vs. Ole Miss opening odds
- Moneyline: LSU -140 | Ole Miss +115
- Spread: LSU +2.5 (-110) | Ole Miss -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)
LSU vs. Ole Miss line movement
The spreads of Ole Miss being a small favorite (up to -2.5) from the summer and subsequent lookahead lines are long gone since LSU’s throttling of Clemson in Week 1. LSU logged a program record 38 first downs in that game, and ever since the line has jumped the fence. The Tigers have been bet through the key number of -3 to -3.5 at most of the best sports betting sites, with BetMGM still the only one landing on the key number of -3. With LSU receiving 63% of the wagers, I’d expect BetMGM to align with the rest of the market at -3.5 or higher at some point.
The O/U ranges from 57.5 at FanDuel to 59.5 at DraftKings. I’d expect that number to rise given Lane Kiffin’s reputation as an offensive genius, and the fact that LSU’s 51 points against Clemson were its fourth-most in a season opener since 1936.
If the total does climb, I wouldn’t back off my stance on the Under, since the familiarity between the coaching staffs is a real factor in my thought process. With a two-point gap in value, it's worth paying up in price for DraftKings' -131 juice (56.71% implied odds).
📺 How to watch LSU vs. Ole Miss: Week 3
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 19
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Miss.)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: YouTube TV
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