Florida State vs. Alabama Prediction: College Football Week 3 Opening Odds & Early Pick

No. 10 Alabama is out for revenge from last year’s 31-17 upset loss to Florida State, but my Florida State vs. Alabama early prediction backs the Seminoles to make this game closer than the opening odds of the near three-touchdown spread suggests.

Florida State’s program is amid a bit of turmoil after firing athletic director Michael Alford, but I don’t expect that news to affect the team this weekend. Kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC), and the Crimson Tide are a 20.5-point favorite.

🏈 Early Florida State vs. Alabama prediction: Week 3

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Florida State +20.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

Bet size: 1 unit to win 0.93 units

Alabama has turned in two tidy victories by an average of 33 points. But even though there are positives to take away from the fact that it is coming off its first win when trailing at halftime under head coach Kalen DeBoer, one shouldn’t overlook that it still trailed at a Kentucky team that was projected to finish 14th out of 16 SEC schools. 

Florida State is coming off a mini bye week after having last played on Labor Day Monday, and that extra rest should factor in here. The Seminoles allowed SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings to throw for a career-high 430 yards, but slinging it all over the yard hasn’t been Alabama’s identity.

I wouldn’t put anyone off of moving the line through the key number of -21 and looking into DraftKings’ alternate spread of -21.5. But it will cost -131 in juice for those 56.71% implied odds, and there’s a chance the line gets to that number on its own naturally.

📊 Florida State vs. Alabama odds & line movement: Week 3

See the latest college football odds.

Florida State vs. Alabama opening odds

• Moneyline: Florida State +750 | Alabama -1099
• Spread: Florida State +15.5 (-110) | Alabama -15.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-108)

Florida State vs. Alabama line movement

This point spread has increased five points from the lookahead line, as oddsmakers were seemingly impressed with Alabama’s 28-point road conference victory. But that seems disrespectful to a Florida State team coming off extra rest and after losing by just three points against a ranked SMU squad. 

While bet365 bounced back and forth between -19.5 and -20.5 over the weekend, it has been one-sided movement towards the Crimson Tide with no buyback on the Seminoles. If the line ever gets to the key number of -21 or higher, I’ll be doubling down on my Florida State pick.

The total has lowered a point from 50.5 to 49.5 across the best sports betting sites. As someone who is backing the underdog, getting near three touchdowns in a game that the oddsmakers and the public seem to agree will be lower scoring is even more appealing.

📺 How to watch Florida State vs. Alabama: Week 3

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 19
• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: YouTube TV