Ohio vs. Miami (OH) Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Can RedHawks Play Spoilers?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 8, 2022 4:22 AM EST • 2 min 51 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Aveon Smith #2 of the Miami (OH) RedHawks throws a pass in the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Paycor Stadium on September 17, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP

The latest edition of the Battle of the Bricks is set for Tuesday night as the Ohio Bobcats visit the Miami (OH) RedHawks. We're breaking down the betting angles with our top Ohio-Miami picks.

Ohio took a massive step in claiming a MAC East division title, defeating Buffalo 45-24 last week. With the win, the Bobcats created a three-way logjam for first place in the division, as Ohio, Buffalo, and Bowling Green now have 4-1 conference records.

Meanwhile, at 2-3 in the MAC (4-5 overall), Miami is likely relegated to playing spoiler. Miami has won two of the last three meetings against Ohio, with all three of those games decided by three or fewer points.

Here are our top picks for the college football Week 11 game between Buffalo and Ohio (odds via PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college football picks roundup for Week 11.

Ohio vs. Miami Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Nov. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Yager Stadium, Oxford, OH
Weather: 64 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 1-mph ENE wind

Ohio vs. Miami Odds

Ohio vs. Miami Odds Analysis

The consensus spread opened this game priced as a pick'em. Ohio has become a 2-point favorite by Tuesday morning with 53% of the bets accounting for 71% of the handle on the visitors.

The Over/Under has also grown from the consensus opening line of 50 to 51.5 with 72% of the tickets and 64% of the handle backing the Over.

Ohio vs. Miami Picks

Ohio vs. Miami ML Pick

Ohio (-115) ★★

The Bobcats are one of the most balanced teams in the country. They entered last week against Buffalo with a 46% rush rate but leaned even more heavily on the run with 35 rushes to 29 passes. Their efficient running game opened up passing lanes for Kurtis Rourke, who threw for five touchdowns and 317 yards on just 20 completions. That offensive balance will likely have the RedHawks guessing how Ohio will attack them this week.

Miami has had two cracks at two of the best teams in its division, losing by four points apiece to Buffalo and Bowling Green. The RedHawks are now 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record, while the Bobcats have covered five straight, including their last four against teams with a losing record. Ohio is just 1-3 away from home this season but is riding a four-game winning streak. It will seize this opportunity against an inferior Miami team with control of its own destiny for a division title.

Ohio vs. Miami O/U Pick

Under 50.5 (-106) ★★★★

Ohio entered last week ranking 119th in FBS in pass success defense and 125th and 129th in tackling and coverage, per PFF. Even worse, the Bobcats ranked in the bottom 15 in the country in success rate on passing downs. However, we do not expect those weaknesses to be exposed by a RedHawks passing offense that ranks in the bottom ten nationally in passing yards per game (149.3). Ohio’s pass defense looked mighty strong when allowing Buffalo’s Cole Snyder to complete just 51% of his passes and a paltry 4.9 yards per attempt average.

The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these teams, including cashing in each of the previous five in Oxford. While Ohio is still riding high off snapping Buffalo’s five-game winning streak, it could also be caught in a letdown spot against one of its biggest conference rivals.

Ohio vs. Miami Prop Pick

First half Under 24 (-110) ★★★

In addition to liking the full-game Under, we are also backing the first half Under. While Miami is under .500 in the conference, it also has the league’s best scoring defense at 21.4 PPG allowed. A lot of that success stems from a league-best run defense that allows just 107.8 yards per game on the ground. However, Ohio will likely be stubborn in establishing a running game to create more passing lanes for Rourke, but that success will not likely play out until the second half after the teams trade blows for the first 30 minutes. We would play this line up to 25, but would pass on anything less than 24.

Where to Bet on Ohio vs. Miami Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Ohio-Miami picks made 11/7/2022 at 6:10 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.