Arizona vs. USC Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 6: Will Trojans Continue to Trend Over the Total?

Check out our Arizona-USC prediction for the Week 6 college football matchup based on the best NCAAF odds.

Last updated: October 7, 2023 2:17 PM EDT • 4 min read

The Arizona Wildcats are gearing up for an eagerly anticipated Pac-12 showdown against the USC Trojans, and we offer our expert prediction for the Arizona vs. USC matchup, informed by the college football odds obtained from our best sports betting apps.

Despite their 3-2 record, the Arizona Wildcats have been a profitable choice for bettors with an impressive 4-1 record against the spread. The question remains: Can they maintain their momentum against the undefeated USC Trojans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday night?

USC is aiming for the CFP National Championship and boasts the nation's highest average of 53.6 points per game. However, their vulnerability lies in their defense.

Anticipate a high-scoring game in this Pac-12 nightcap.

Here is our best Arizona-USC prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Arizona vs. USC prediction

Over 71.5 (-110 via FanDuel, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Arizona boasting a 4-1 against-the-spread record on the season and USC’s defense showing the tendency to let its foot off the gas late in games that are seemingly in hand, 21.5 points is too many to comfortably back the Trojans in this matchup.

My preference is to lean into those tendencies and take the Over, despite the gaudy number we’re seeing for it across our best live betting sites. But clearing 71.5 total points feels attainable since USC hasn’t played a game with fewer than 66 points all season. The Over has hit during four of the five Trojans games on the campaign, and their contests have cleared 71.5 total points three times.

While the quality of the opposing defense is virtually irrelevant for Caleb Williams and the Trojans, Arizona’s unit is particularly vulnerable while ranking 71st in the FBS in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Meanwhile, USC might boast the second-ranked offensive efficiency in the nation, but its defense actually isn’t much better than Arizona’s group. The Trojans fall outside the top 60 in adjusted efficiency on defense and rank 92nd in pass defense.

That suggests Arizona’s top-40 passing offense can put up enough points to contribute meaningfully to this total. The Wildcats may not even need to do much out of the ordinary to help push this game into the mid-70s, with a USC team leading the country at 53.6 points per game set to do the heavy lifting.

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Arizona vs. USC best odds

FanDuel, BetMGM (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Over 72	Over 71.5	Over 71.5	Over 72	Over 72
-110	-110	-110	-110	-110

DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 list this total at 72 points with standard -110 odds on both sides of the wager. If you’re backing this Over, FanDuel and BetMGM provide a more quality offering at 71.5 total points and those same -110 odds.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this total go higher as the game draws near, but we would play the Over up to 74.5. At 73, it would reduce to a three-star recommendation.

Arizona vs. USC odds

Arizona vs. USC odds analysis

USC opened as a 21.5-point home favorite and has remained locked in at that line across our best sports betting sites. Right now 56% of wagers have come in on the Trojans.

The total opened at a massive 72.5 before dipping slightly to between 71.5 and 72 across our best sportsbooks. Currently, the Under is generating 53% of the action.

Arizona vs. USC game info

When: Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023 at 10:30 p.m. ET
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 73 Degrees, 7-mph winds, 1% Precipitation

Arizona-USC prediction made Thursday at 4 p.m. ET.

College football betting odds pages

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer

Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.