Arizona State vs. Texas State Prediction Tonight: Week 3 Picks & Odds

We have our eyes on the host Bobcats to show up tonight against a Power Four foe.

Mike Spector

Last updated: September 12, 2024 4:35 PM EDT • 5 min read

Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham reacts as we offer our Arizona State vs. Texas State prediction, picks and odds for tonight's college football matchup. — Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham reacts against Mississippi State. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images via Imagn.

Arizona State is on upset watch tonight when it heads to Bobcat Stadium to face Texas State with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET.

As the only FBS matchup on the college football schedule tonight, these two will have the whole sport watching as we offer our Arizona State vs. Texas State prediction, picks and odds for this non-conference showdown.

Best Arizona State vs. Texas State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Spread pick: Texas State -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Arizona State ⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Joey Hobert anytime touchdown scorer (+145 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Arizona State vs. Texas State odds movement

When we made our pick for this game on Wednesday, the Sun Devils were dealing as 1.5-point favorites while seeing two-thirds of the betting activity in their favor.

Yet there were already indications of sharp action on the underdog Bobcats, who opened at +2.5 and saw their odds tighten even with more wagers on Arizona State.

Sure enough, Texas State is now favored by 2.5 points across our best sportsbooks in the hours leading up to kickoff. And it's not hard to see why sharps love the home team for tonight's matchup.

Arizona State vs. Texas State spread prediction: Week 3

Texas State to cover the spread: -2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Oddsmakers seemingly did not have a great handle on Arizona State early in the season. It won by 41 points as a 6.5-point favorite over Wyoming in its opener and had a 27-point lead before holding on to cover as a 6.5-point favorite against Mississippi State last week.

However, Texas State has been impressive in its own right, and we are backing it to cover the spread in one of the program’s biggest home games in years.

Don't underestimate big win against UTSA

While Arizona State turned heads in a convincing Week 1 win over Wyoming, Texas State was equally impressive in a 49-10 victory over UTSA as a 2.5-point favorite.

The Roadrunners had won nine of their previous 10 games dating back to last season, were 32-9 over the previous three seasons, and were picked to finish second in the American Preseason Media Poll in just their second year in the conference (they received four first-place votes).

Texas State’s tempo should frustrate

Arizona State returned its top three rushers from a season ago, which helped to bring along red-shirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt early in the season. But Leavitt and the offense have not had to do too much after racing out to two big early leads at home the last two weeks, as he has attempted just 42 passes thus far.

Texas State is playing at a top-10 tempo this season, and that frantic pace should force Arizona State out of its comfort zone offensively, especially if the Bobcats are the first on the scoreboard.

This line has moved considerably from an opening consensus line of +2.5, and the reverse line movement - considering the majority of wagers are on Arizona State - suggests that sharp action is driving the change.

I originally sided with sharps when the line was Texas State +1.5, and I'm still backing the Bobcats with a three-star play. A $10 wager at BetMGM would profit $9.09 if it cashes.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Arizona State vs. Texas State player prop

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Joey Hobert anytime touchdown scorer (+145) ⭐⭐⭐

Quarterback Jordan McCloud fits like a glove in the Texas State offense. That is not surprising, considering he finished last year in the top five nationally in positive play percentage and EPA while under center for James Madison before being inserted in a Bobcats offense that ranked in the top 15 in passing success rate last year.

Texas State returns its two receivers who had eight touchdowns apiece last season, Hobert and Kole Wilson, and they will look to feast on an Arizona State defense that returned just four starters from a year ago.

McCloud has developed a better rapport with Hobert, as his 10 catches lead the team, while his two touchdown receptions are tied for the team lead. Considering Hobert and Wilson have nearly the same anytime touchdown odds at FanDuel (+145 vs. +155), I am backing the receiver, who has been the more reliable red zone target.

FanDuel’s +145 odds for Hobert to score are an excellent value compared to DraftKings’ +100 odds (which carries a 50% implied probability), as a $10 wager would pay out $4.50 more in profits ($14.50 vs. $10).

Our Shane Jackson shares his thoughts on this pick with his Arizona State vs. Texas State player props.

Best odds: +145 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40.82%

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Arizona State vs. Texas State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Arizona State vs. Texas State game info

When: Thursday, Sept. 12
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Bobcat Stadium (San Marcos, Texas)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 94 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph N
Favorite: Texas State (-140 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”