Prediction Markets Enter Super Bowl Advertising Conversation

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket had active contracts tied to Super Bowl LX advertising plans ahead of the game scheduled for Sunday, between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. The contracts allowed users to trade on whether specific companies would run commercials during the broadcast, including brands such as Salesforce, Verizon, and Coca-Cola.

Polymarket structured its offerings as simple “Yes or No” outcomes, while Kalshi introduced more detailed contracts. One example asked which public figures would appear in a Super Bowl ad before Feb. 9. The markets represented a new angle on the Super Bowl, long considered the most important night of the year for advertisers.

The interest coincided with continued increases in Super Bowl advertising costs. Last year's game drew a record 127.7 million viewers. That broadcast, carried by Fox, generated about $7.5 million per 30-second commercial, with roughly 10 ads selling for more than $8 million.

For this year's game, NBC sold out its advertising inventory. There was an average price of $8 million per 30-second spot, and between five and 10 ads selling for more than $10 million each.

NBC Chairman of Global Advertising and Partnerships Mark Marshall said technology companies accounted for the largest share of ad purchases, using a broad definition that included firms such as Uber Eats. Only two automakers bought spots this year. Marshall also said about 40% of advertisers had never purchased a Super Bowl commercial before.

The emergence of prediction market apps tracking ad placements gave networks additional incentive to limit early disclosure of advertiser details.

Insider trading concerns continue to follow Polymarket

The growing visibility of Super Bowl-related prediction markets followed ongoing scrutiny of Polymarket over concerns about insider trading. In the most notorious high-profile case, a user placed $32,000 on a contract predicting that former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be removed from power by the end of January.

The trade was made hours before President Donald Trump ordered the operation that led to Maduro's capture, resulting in profits of more than $400,000 for the trader.

The event raised the question of whether individuals with access to inside information can exploit prediction markets. In contrast to US financial stock markets, the Securities Exchange Commission monitors such markets for insider trading. Experts in the field of finance have pointed out that improper activities may not be easily detected in such markets.

Polymarket has faced similar questions in other instances. In one case, a trader reportedly earned close to $1 million by correctly predicting 22 of the 23 most-searched Google terms in a single year. Critics pointed to that outcome as another example of how informed participants could gain outsized advantages.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan previously dismissed concerns about insider trading, arguing that users were leveraging their understanding of geopolitical and cultural events. He said such trading contributed to an aggregated probability signal that could shift quickly as new information emerged.