EP36's Weekly Wankoff: Western & Southern Open (Cincy)

EaglesPhan36 · 08-15-12, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by riffraff24

Stephens also dominating Giorgi. Doubt this goes to a third set

That was surprising. I think I am going to leave the WTA for tevari. I do bet some off the board, but ones I share seem pretty pitiful.

tevari · 08-15-12, 11:26 AM

mine, all mine. in all seriousness, a bit of a surprise there for me as well. her father did promise a grand slam at some point in her career, something to take with a grain of salt. but she does have the talent to hit with the bigger names in the game, it's (like 75% of women players on tour) mental with her at such a young age.

Rose' · 08-15-12, 12:24 PM

Why did you like Istomin

riffraff24 · 08-15-12, 12:58 PM

Done with Tennis for a while after today. Every match seems like a crapshoot.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-15-12, 01:37 PM

Been a bit too long since I tasted tennis' backhand to my face. You gotta work through days like today. You bet tennis more than any other sport, there are days when everyone gets crushed or when just you get crushed. That's why you flat bet and move on to the next one. Stepanek for the block!

xx

riffraff24 · 08-15-12, 01:41 PM

Thanks for the advice brother. GL

zoo youk · 08-15-12, 08:24 PM

fadimg Fish tomorrow? or do u think if he was gonna go down it was 1st round?

matt1216 · 08-16-12, 12:07 AM

Anduhar, for the upset tommorow. +420 ive been watching this guy his last 3 matches His return game is solid

ChrisJ · 08-16-12, 02:29 AM

Yesterday was a fukkin joke. Had I faded ALL my tennisplays it would have been an insane day lol

You should recover fast EP, GL

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-12, 06:30 AM

Stepanek was horrible yesterday, but Monaco was worse. If he plays anything like that, Fish will beat him down. I think Fish survives today.

Thursday, August 16th
Nishikori +140
Del Potro-Troicki Under 20

dRavidC · 08-16-12, 07:11 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Stepanek was horrible yesterday, but Monaco was worse. If he plays anything like that, Fish will beat him down. I think Fish survives today.

Thursday, August 16th
Nishikori +140
Del Potro-Troicki Under 20

any reason why you're going nishikori. he hasn't exactly looked that great either. Or are you banking on Stan's game not being of the same quality it was when he was against ferrer?

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-12, 07:54 AM

Wawrinka being way over valued IMO off of the win. Ferrer was obviously not engaged in the match after the 1st set. Line should be much closer to a pick em. Expecting Nishikori to make him work harder. Nishi needs to shore up his Wnd serve.

riffraff24 · 08-16-12, 09:46 AM

BOL to you today EP!

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-12, 11:10 AM

Troicki & Del Potro already boned any chance on an under. Delpo broke 1st game and then gave it back. Troicki was up 3-1 and then gave it back so on serve @ 5-4. Probably wind up in a tie break and be dead and gone after that.

jagaf22 · 08-16-12, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Troicki & Del Potro already boned any chance on an under. Delpo broke 1st game and then gave it back. Troicki was up 3-1 and then gave it back so on serve @ 5-4. Probably wind up in a tie break and be dead and gone after that.

Hoping for Del Potro to withdraw at this point.

riffraff24 · 08-16-12, 11:27 AM

how about a 6-0 set win for Potro here? lol

jagaf22 · 08-16-12, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by riffraff24

how about a 6-0 set win for Potro here? lol

There goes that idea

zoo youk · 08-16-12, 11:40 AM

Fish is playing great

nicsbr · 08-16-12, 11:50 AM

Thoughts on the Raonic matchup?

GoBlue77 · 08-16-12, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by nicsbr

Thoughts on the Raonic matchup?

flip a coin

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-12, 02:08 PM

Tough call. It's being heavily tipped @ TI for Raonic, so very jinxy + it seems like the public is pounding it in general as it is almost a pick em now. Would be a great time for Berdych to bury the world. Interesting to note that Berdych got a wildcard to Winston-Salem next week. Tsonga is also a big name in that little 250 prior to the US Open. Doesn't mean his form will be for shit, but signals me that Berdych understands he needs court time to get his game together. We're obviously looking at a tie break probably deciding at least one set.

I think this is a good match-up for Berdych if he keeps up in the serve game. Against Gasquet when he got rolled in Toronto, he was having big issues against Gasquet's devastating backhand. Raonic doesn't have that to hurt him and in general his ground strokes have been a big reason he hasn't really had as big a season as some predicted. Obviously his serve can keep him in most matches. If Nishikori comes through, I may throw a half a unit on Berdy.

nicsbr · 08-16-12, 02:18 PM

TI u mean tennisinsight?

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-12, 02:31 PM

Yep. It's around 75% tipped for Raonic or so.

matt1216 · 08-16-12, 02:35 PM

i watched Berdych play against LU in his last match, he looked decen but he didnt impress me that much. I think this is Raonic match to lose.Raonic has confidence issues at times. Kinda scary betting on him. I think Dirty Bird wins this

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-12, 04:19 PM

Haven't gone 0fer in too long, - well technically won some off the board picks - but wtf I will play Berdych for the clean sweep of losers today. Burn baby burn.

Tsonga · 08-16-12, 08:16 PM

You need to get on the Raonic train. Are you going to take Stan tomorrow? Raonic kept his head in the game today...his loss to Isner last week was pure nerves in the 1st set...he was up and then it got to him. That seems to rarely happen where he gets ahead of himself. The 2nd set against Isner he was just nervous...Isner is more cuthroat though...

Nice win for Raonic today against the Berd - hoping for a jump in the rankings to give him a better chance in the US open.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-12, 09:53 PM

I still don't think Raonic has it all together to make a deep run in best of 5s unless he gets one of those perfect draws where better players get upset and he can conserve with several 3 or 4 setters early. Maybe part injuries, but he seems to be a lot less consistent this year with groundies and surprisingly his serve from set to set than he was at the height of his rise.

I'm a little miffed at myself for not trusting my instincts. I usually follow my pre-tournament outline pretty well in taking dogs, etc. Raonic was a darkhorse I put out there, yet I shyed away today with everyone on him. One of those things where I have to remind myself to just go with the gut sometimes and don't regret it win or lose.

Tomorrow is either parlay or don't play type of day. May actually venture back to the WenchTA where the match-ups offer some better pricing. Federer, Del Potro, Raonic, Djokovic are my predictions - had three of them earmarked for the semis this week. Still like a Fed-Djokovic final, but Raonic could threaten depending on how his serve goes against Federer if it comes to that.

zoo youk · 08-16-12, 10:20 PM

speaking of the WenchTA shouldn't Serena be around -1000, not -420? what am I missing?

of course my square ass put in a Fed/Serena parlay.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-12, 10:58 PM

She played like shit against Radwanska. Her serve did not have a ton of zip on it and she was having trouble getting her 1st serve in and moved like she was stuck in mud. She still won easy in straights, but she has admitted she had zero energy and is feeling fatigued from the busy Olympic schedule + Wimbledon. Remember in addition to singles, she was rolling doubles in both tourneys to the finals, so she has logged a lot of court time.

I would look elsewhere personally. I have a good mind to fade her until she drops because I don't think she's going to last through the final @ this rate. If Kerber doesn't get her, I think Kvitova would if that winds up being the semifinal.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-16-12, 11:07 PM

F-uck it Friday.

Friday, August 17th
Kerber +335
Parlay: Federer + Djokovic + Del Potro [-121]

riffraff24 · 08-17-12, 12:01 AM

How about a late night degenerate Challengers play?

		603 Igor Kunitsyn		-250
		604 Ivan Sergeyev		+177

EaglesPhan36 · 08-17-12, 06:33 AM

Subbing Hanescu @ Cordenons Challenger for Del Potro. Little concerned with the wrist issue yesterday, so going to go with Slumdog Challengaire. Hanescu has been running the table @ that level for a month on clay. Hopefully he stays firm and doesn't go dirty at some point again.

riffraff24 · 08-17-12, 09:25 AM

What do you think about the total in the Potro/Chardy match? Seem like over is a good play?

zoo youk · 08-17-12, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by riffraff24

What do you think about the total in the Potro/Chardy match? Seem like over is a good play?

i know you were asking EP, but you know how Del Potro is. if he is engaged from start to finish he can win this in straights, since Chardy could have an emotional let down after just getting a huge win over Murray but i dont see that happening, the guy has been playing like a top 10 player. On the other hand if Del Potro is not engaged Chardy can win it in straights imo

zoo youk · 08-17-12, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

She played like shit against Radwanska. Her serve did not have a ton of zip on it and she was having trouble getting her 1st serve in and moved like she was stuck in mud. She still won easy in straights, but she has admitted she had zero energy and is feeling fatigued from the busy Olympic schedule + Wimbledon. Remember in addition to singles, she was rolling doubles in both tourneys to the finals, so she has logged a lot of court time.

I would look elsewhere personally. I have a good mind to fade her until she drops because I don't think she's going to last through the final @ this rate. If Kerber doesn't get her, I think Kvitova would if that winds up being the semifinal.

personally i think Kvitova will be the one to take it to her. just shows you how nasty she is, that she was fatigued, couldn't get her first serve over and wasn't moving around well and still won in straight sets. she is a beast of competitor when it comes to her mind set, knowing that she said that is good, meaning she knows she has to improve her play today and most likely will.

think the spot to fade her is against Kvitova.