EP36's Weekly Wankoff: Western & Southern Open (Cincy)

GoBlue77 · 08-11-12, 07:06 PM

if weather is cool, i like the big names to give full effort. typically cincy has been one of the scorchers on tour and guys didnt want to kill themselves in the heat before the open. they would win a few matches then check out a lil early for extra rest before the major. if its cooler, not in the 90's that week i look for full effort from the top names

EaglesPhan36 · 08-11-12, 10:00 PM

Weather looks to be good, 80s at worst in the 5-day I looked at. I do expect mostly full effort with time for rest later. I really think if Federer starts the week strong, it's his tournament. He's got a pretty simple draw to the semis, really the finals if you look at Ferrer/Berdych being the top seeds in the adjacent quarter to match up with him in the semis.

Unless they both don't feel it, Djokovic-Tipsarevic should repeat their semifinal in Toronto in Cincy. I think Murray's participation is key. If he is forced out early, guys like Roddick & Querrey see their chances improve a ton and if Del Potro is engaged this next week .... he could make a real move. I think he should have skipped Toronto and more or less did, losing early.

Don't forget your Donald Young watch. He gets a qualifier in the opening round. Problem for The Duck is that there are a lot of very good qualis out there. If he is favored against any of them, you have got to be f-ing kidding me. He should be a dog against any of the 14 guys left in the quali draw ... for reals.

gaebiskon · 08-12-12, 01:46 AM

looking forward to it, EP36

delpiero7 · 08-12-12, 06:26 AM

Federer couldn't have gotten an easier draw if he'd hand picked it himself.
Monaco (a top 10 player?!

) gets the #8 seed and lands in Fed's quarter. Fish may the biggest danger to Fed in this section, but given his health problems this year and the slog he put in at the Rogers Cup, Fed should easily see his way through to the SF. At that stage he should get either Ferrer (who he has a ridiculous H2H against, something like 14-0), or Berdych who has barely won a match since Roland Garros and will most likely go out before the QF.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-12-12, 11:07 AM

Get it on qualis today, Get your Ram Jam on.

[Qualis] Ram +125
Ram against Mathieu. Ram's serve was stout against Dimitrov and his nerve solid as he won in two tie breaks to advance a round in qualis. Mathieu perservered through three sets over Ebden. He was fairly solid, but his serve doesn't always hold up. Ram can have the same issue. 2nd serve is what to watch IMO. If Ram is getting his 1st serve in for cheap points and winning at least 50% on 2nd serve, I think he's got the chance to win.

plankton43 · 08-12-12, 01:47 PM

This should be an interesting tournament, who do you like in Tomic Vs. Harrison today?

EaglesPhan36 · 08-12-12, 02:01 PM

Or Ram gets ass raped ... wow, nice show up. No thoughts on that one.

MagicDiceFlow · 08-12-12, 02:40 PM

Ram has turned into a Karlovic....all serve and nothing else. His backhand sucks. Just pound his backhand all match long.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-12-12, 03:11 PM

Turned? LoL. Ram has never been much more than a sometimes big serve. Hence his career path.

ProbablyNotSeth · 08-12-12, 04:35 PM

Any idea when the second round will start (i.e. the top ten will play) & the lines will be announced?

zoo youk · 08-12-12, 04:36 PM

does James Blake have any chance tonight?

ProbablyNotSeth · 08-12-12, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by zoo youk

does James Blake have any chance tonight?

It really depends who shows up tonight. Anderson was doing decent until Toronto (well it started in DC were he lost he break points to Querry). On the other hand, Blake has beaten some Harrison & Andujar (ranked 43), along with losing a close one to Dolgopolov.

With that being said, Anderson does have momentum and is playing a Blake that is 6 years older & has lost some bad games (i.e. Kamke and Becker), so I would say KA should win

EaglesPhan36 · 08-12-12, 05:59 PM

Anderson hasn't been great this year. He should be doing much more on this surface, especially with the big names out. Blake could push him if he can serve well the entire match, but that is the question is consistency.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-12-12, 07:01 PM

Seed Report

1. Federer
This draw is simple for Federer. If he is engaged and motivated this week, there is no reason he shouldn't be in the semifinals at worst and really, the finals.
Prediction: Finals

2. Djokovic
This is another draw where Djokovic can conserve his best play for later in the week if he chooses. There are floaters like Dolgpolov and Mayer early, but both are just too inconsistent. He's likely to see Cilic or Tipsarevic in the quarters.
Prediction: Finals

3. Murray
Health is key for Murray. If his knee is less than 100%, it makes little sense for him to push this week when he could rest for the US Open. Even if he is closer to 100%, his quarter has some land mines in it potentially. Querrey. Roddick. Istomin. Benneteau. Lots of guys who can get hot on-serve and challenge on this surface. The top seed opposite Murray is Del Potro in this quarter. Not a great recipe for a long week for a guy who probably is better served playing a few matches and resting.
Prediction: Quarterfinals - potential to lose in the 3rd round

4. Ferrer
Ferrer has a difficult quarter. Berdych is the other seed opposite him. He could face Wawrinka in the 2nd round. Dangerous floaters like Raonic, Baghdatis, Simon and more in this quarter. If Ferrer can get past Wawrinka early, he should get to the quarters minimum - but may have trouble going further.
Prediction: Quarterfinal

5. Berdych
I've really given up on expecting Berdych to do much of any thing at this point. Toronto was a cake draw for him if he had any sort of inclination to play hard, but he got beat early again. He may win a match this week, but with a quartet of Gasquet, Raonic, Simon and Baghdatis looming as a potential 3rd round opponent - don't expect much more.
Prediction: 3rd round

6. Del Potro
This is the guy who bares watching this week. His early exit from Toronto wasn't all that surprising considering his long run in the Olympics. The rest should have helped him and he should benefit from a less than 100% Murray in his quarter. He will have to be solid to start with Haas likely to be his 1st opponent and then Youzhny & Troicki en route to the quarters. I think if he serves well this week, look for big things.
Prediction: Semifinals - potential to be in the Final

7. Tipsarevic
Another solid week from Tipsarevic in Toronto as he made the semis. His draw is set up fairly identical to last week. He'll have to go through Cilic to get to the quarters and Djokovic would then potentially be waiting again. I don't see him running into an early problem, but I am not going to be surprised if Cilic gets revenge on him in the 3rd.
Prediction: Quarterfinal - potential to lose in the 3rd Round

8. Monaco
In Federer's draw, Monaco obviously won't be expected to make a deep run. His portion of the quarter is dangerous but does offer some navigatable matches. Stepanek will be the 1st up likely for him. Stepanek KO'ed Dolgpolov and a tired Del Potro last week, so he will have some confidence. The other quartet in this bracket includes Fish, F.Lopez, Giraldo & Berlocq. None are in great form. Fish still looks less than 100%, Lopez can be a boom or bust every week. If Monaco survives Stepanek, he could conceivably make a run ... but that is a big if.
Prediction: 2nd Round

Early Round Upset Watch
[1st] Bogmolov over Nieminen [Seriously]
[1st] Lopez over Fish
[1st] Baghdatis over Simon
[2nd] Stepanek over Monaco
[2nd] Tomic over Kohlschreiber

Darkhorse(s): Raonic, Cilic, Roddick
*Darkhorse - player w/potential to make QFs

EaglesPhan36 · 08-12-12, 10:38 PM

Things Daddy Likes on Monday
Momma went Goth clubbing and was wearing a corset. Meow.
Benneteau -140
Seppi-Haase Under 23

EaglesPhan36 · 08-12-12, 10:42 PM

For those interested in winning my SBR points this week, make sure to check back here daily:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-betting/1845984-ep36s-cincinnati-line-day.html

jbart28 · 08-13-12, 03:26 AM

thanks for sharing your insight all the time. Your threads are on insta click every time I wanna make some tennis plays.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-12, 08:12 AM

Isner out of the tournament due to back injury. Chardy in as a lucky loser and will face Roddick.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-12, 10:19 AM

Also diggin' The Lu today over Kubot.

Lu -165

Dmoneytx · 08-13-12, 12:00 PM

Hope you have been doing well EP. Good luck on the plays today.

younghandicapper · 08-13-12, 01:54 PM

EP, what do you think about these?

Istomin+2 (I like him in this spot)
Mathieu+3 (Wawrinka coming from grass and losing streak)
Radwanska-3
Giorgi+4.5
Matosevic-3.5
Troicki ML?

That's what my system's leaning. But can't pull the trigger yet.

Peng-3 also against Jankovic? I don't get it!
Youhzny over Hewitt?
Is there any chance Fognin beats Mayer today? Mayer struggling lately on clay.

younghandicapper · 08-13-12, 01:57 PM

And also Aminmuradova+5.5 against Cibulkova! Cibulkova not playing well lately plus Aminmuradova already warmed up 2 matches before this game?

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-12, 01:59 PM

I like Benneteau. Already has the hard court time in Toronto whereas Istomin has been idle since the Olympics. Benny also has a good track record in Cincy.

Don't really have an opinion on Mathieu or the chicks. Matosevic should have a chance, but that handicap might be tough. Think the ML is safer to parlay with something. Matosevic just runs too hot and cold for me to trust with that many games. Troicki is almost always a pass for me in 1st ups at tourneys. He's so wishy washy. He has better skills than Dodig, but Dodig ran hot serving through qualis and could catch him napping.

younghandicapper · 08-13-12, 02:07 PM

Thanks, EP!

Thinking of betting what my system tells me. But not locking it in 'til I get some of expert's idea like yours. Fognini against Mayer? Mayer favored by -3.5 But Fognini really plays well. Whereas Mayer not that much :S

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-12, 02:27 PM

I dunno about that one. Mayer has burned me a lot, so I tend to avoid him overall.

younghandicapper · 08-13-12, 02:50 PM

Matosevic broken!

riffraff24 · 08-13-12, 03:13 PM

Hey EP...Any thoughts on Baghdatis tomorrow? Kinda liking him at +115

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-12, 03:39 PM

That is probably a play for me. My pre-read on the tourney had him as an upset possibility in that spot.

riffraff24 · 08-13-12, 03:55 PM

Thanks my dude. GL on all your plays! Nice hits so far with Lu and that under

younghandicapper · 08-13-12, 04:04 PM

How about Li Na +3, EP? She can actually win this one. Expected a close game. What do you think?

riffraff24 · 08-13-12, 06:01 PM

Istomin banked the first set...C'monnnn Benneteueueueueueueueu

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-12, 06:10 PM

Well decent day even with the French failure.

riffraff24 · 08-13-12, 06:17 PM

French failed? nooooo i would of never thought...damn euros

EaglesPhan36 · 08-13-12, 06:25 PM

Guess perhaps he was saving for next if he is playing Winston Salem since he has loads of pts to defend.