EP36's Futurama

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #1
    EP36's Futurama
    Okay, so here we go. I won't be playing every tournament each week, will be trying to focus on one. For futures, I will be playing a MAX of two units for the tournament. For the upset picks that I outline for the 1st round, I will try each of them for half a unit each if they are plus money. Those will be my only daily plays as I begin this project.




    ATP Eastbourne

    Top Seeds
    1. Gasquet
    2. Granollers
    3. Seppi
    4. Tomic

    Since this event switched from Nottingham to Eastbourne four years ago, the top seed has never won the title and has never been in the Championship Match. In fact, the top seed has not won back to back matches since the switch. Qualifiers have had modest success in their opening round matches in Eastbourne with at least one winning a first round match in each of the last four years. This year's qualifiers include: Matosevic (Ward), Edben (Darcis), Mathieu (Chardy) and Pospisil (Harrison). Wilcards have had less first round success, but James Ward who is again a wildcard entry, has knocked off an opponent in the first round as a wildcard twice in his last three entries as a wildcard in this event.

    GASQUET QUARTER
    When this event was in Nottingham, Gasquet won the title twice and was rock solid. He has not played at the event since the Eastbourne switch though. His draw is easy enough for a semifinal spot with a first round bye and Andujar at #8 is the only other seeded player in his portion of the draw. Andujar who is 1-7 on Grass lifetime. Gasquet has a sparkling 70%+ win rate on Grass in his career, so it's all a matter of want this week for him. If he wants to play and do well here, he should. Ward & Matosevic in the 1st round pits wildcard and qualifier. Darcis v. Ebden and Andujar v. Baghdatis are the other matches. I think the Ward-Matosevic winner will pose the biggest threat to knocking off Gasquet, only because they will have had court-time on the surface whereas Gasquet has not played since the French Open. If he gets by that match though, even with the bad luck of the #1s - Gasquet should be in the semis.

    GRANOLLERS QUARTER
    Granollers has a tricky draw and I would be surprised if he survived it. He will face the winner of Llodra-Istomin first-up. The other two matches in the 1st round are Benneteau v. Lu and Pospisil v. Harrison. Lu would be the easy pick to perhaps navigate this quarter after his solid week at Queens Club, but he picked up a leg injury and there's no word on his status. Benneteau has made the quarters two straight years at Eastbourne and could be in line for a third. Harrison is a potential darkhorse here. He's not lost on Grass and has comparable if not better games than most in this quarter. I would usually love Llodra in this spot as his serve & volley game is suited to Grass, but he's been awful this year since losing the Marseilles Final in February. This quarter looks absolutely wide open. I'd give Benneteau perhaps a slight edge over Istomin to advance, but would not be surprised by anyone who wins this quarter.

    SEPPI QUARTER
    The defending Champ should be okay with his first match, playing the winner of Berlocq-Kukushkin. On the other side, Kohlschreiber v. Soeda and Young v. Baker. You couldn't pay me money to watch Donald Young and Jamie Baker. You couldn't give me money to bet on either. Both are pretty poor on the surface and Young has lost his last ten matches. The survivor could be easy fodder for Kohlschreiber or Soeda. As with Gasquet, Kohlschreiber's want level is the key for him. He's the best on this surface in this quarter, but hasn't exactly done well outside of his home Halle tournament. Even with Seppi's run in Eastbourne last year, he's not exactly a great Grass court player. By default though, he could be the semifinalist in this quarter.

    TOMIC QUARTER

    This quarter offers the most intrigue. Tomic waits for Fognini or Ramos. Well that is if Tomic is ready to go. He retired against Haas in Halle last week due to illness. Who knew being a pussy was now classified as illness. In all seriousness though, the virus he has been battling is reason enough to steer clear of him this week until you see him play if he indeed takes the court. Have to favor Fognini's experience over Ramos. Bottom half is France v. France with Mathieu and Chardy and then USA v. USA with Querrey and Roddick. Chardy is of course a mixed bag of shit. He could step up and win several matches, but I think with Mathieu having gone through qualis - he may actually be primed for at least one win. Querrey could loom large in this quarter with solid form carrying over from Queens Club where he made the semis. Roddick had a rocket serve against Roger-Vasselin, but did not play the big points well and lost in three. No one in their right mind is going to back him. Consider though that Roddick wants to be here, he has to get a wildcard to get into the tournament. Then consider Querrey's track record and a long week. Seems like a total lay-up for Querrey, right? I favor the survivor of the All-American affair to advance. I don't want to think Roddick has a shot in hell, but something stupid inside me says different.

    1st Round Upset Watch

    Ward over Matosevic
    Mathieu over Chardy
    Roddick over Querrey

    Semifinalists
    Gasquet, Istomin, Seppi, Roddick


    Futures

    Seppi +1000/ 0.5 unit
    Benneteau +1400/ 0.5 unit
    Gasquet +250
    / 1 unit
  • TC Woods
    SBR MVP
    • 12-17-11
    • 1780

    #2
    Sorry but, way to complicated for someone knowing chit about tennis....

    give me something easy to bet on
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #3
      It's a thread about betting futures bro. Look under the Futures part and those are my bets for the tournament. If you want daily bets, plenty of other threads here to check out. Salud.

      I should mention I will also make some spot plays in doubles in this thread, but regular/daily singles matches can kiss me mother farker arse for this project.
      Comment
      • Optional
        Administrator
        • 06-10-10
        • 61658

        #4
        Nice write up EP.

        Very useful!

        You won't be looking at Wimby qualifiers then?
        .
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #5
          Nah. I don't mind offering opinions as usual on picks and I always keep up with daily play/results, but I'm going to try and keep to this project through the US Open at least and see how it works out. I figure that should give me a decent sample size to see if this is worth a shit or not. Either way, it saves me money from making daily picks.
          Comment
          • JNic
            SBR MVP
            • 01-03-10
            • 4272

            #6
            Istomin is my fav player and I love him on grass but Llodra is a real tough task for him to break serve. I just can't see him really handling the serve/volley that well, you think he can get through that?
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #7
              It's likely to be a serve fest. Maybe Llodra turns the light on because he is the superior grass court player, but he's been so awful this season - tough to back him until he proves he can win. If Istomin is the dog, I'd rather take a shot on him personally.

              Ward +165 tomorrow for one of the upset picks. Mathieu is the favorite, so no play for my purposes of this thread.
              Comment
              • beefcake
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-26-09
                • 14029

                #8
                Yeah man I like Ward as well.

                Robin Haase should fukking retire after losing to Pavic.Played the croat for pocket change, paid off in Lobster Dinner!
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #9
                  I am certain some people lost their rent money on that thinking hey easy money with a guy playing @ home. Haase has been a total lump of shit this year. He might be the new Chardy.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #10
                    Dear Donald Young,

                    Your Tour Card has been revoked.

                    Signed,

                    An Ongoing Humiliating Defeat to Jamie Baker
                    Comment
                    • Optional
                      Administrator
                      • 06-10-10
                      • 61658

                      #11
                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                      Dear Donald Young,

                      Your Tour Card has been revoked.

                      Signed,

                      An Ongoing Humiliating Defeat to Jamie Baker
                      I didn't know much about Baker until I watched a match at Athens. I was really impressed with a couple of wins he had there and started keeping an eye on him. But then I've read your comments about how boring he is and has no weapons etc and laid off him. Are you sure he hasn't stepped up his game or changed tactics or something this year?
                      .
                      Comment
                      • beefcake
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-26-09
                        • 14029

                        #12
                        If young isn't careful he might have to go back the minors soon if this streak continues.Still remember a limo waiting to pick him up outside of the Charlottesville challenger.My wife said"Who in the hell gets a limo at a challenger event?" I said well it's not Chris Guccione, that's for sure.
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #13
                          Ward flopped late in the 3rd @ +178 against Matosevic. Roddick Day on Tuesday. +120. As high as +130. We'll see if my intestines felt anything here besides food poisoning.

                          I don't even know what happened to Young. I mean I was never high on the guy and thought his one run last year @ Shanghai was overblown + of course the over hype for winning a few matches at the US Open against absolute shit competition, but he was never getting routinely ass raped by absolute nobodies. He probably needs to take some time off and just gather his thoughts. Seems like he might be a total mental burnout at this point.
                          Comment
                          • JNic
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-03-10
                            • 4272

                            #14
                            It'll be real interesting to see how Young does defending those points in the summer US hardcourt tournies...
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #15
                              That mother fukker should be back around 100 by the end of the Summer.
                              Comment
                              • simplelowlife
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 06-06-12
                                • 51

                                #16
                                EP, love this new thread on futures. Hoping you will follow up with a detailed analysis when the Wimbledon draw comes out later this week.
                                Comment
                                • JNic
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-03-10
                                  • 4272

                                  #17
                                  Yea good call Istomin did get through quite easily, Granollers should be an easy win for him he should be -150 to -175, at least I think
                                  Comment
                                  • Dmoneytx
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-09-12
                                    • 6450

                                    #18
                                    Great write up on Eastbourne EP! I was out 3-4 days with my tment, but back & happy to see that you started something like this. I wish you the BOL! And I hope you take it to the books ass!!! GL!
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #19
                                      Thanks. Roddick wins by retirement 5-2, furious of course that the set did not finish for our 1 set books.
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #20
                                        Gasquet shits the bed to open as does Benneteau. Leaves only Seppi alive.will guess there will be several tourneys like this along the way. Have to figure out how I might add along the way without overextending the bankroll. Maybe allow an extra unit for during the tourney to add if needed. Still cannot believe Gascan rolled in the 1st and then fukked around the rest of the way.
                                        Comment
                                        • Sport_Fish
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-06-10
                                          • 4079

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by EaglesPhan36


                                          GASQUET QUARTER
                                          When this event was in Nottingham, Gasquet won the title twice and was rock solid. He has not played at the event since the Eastbourne switch though. His draw is easy enough for a semifinal spot with a first round bye and Andujar at #8 is the only other seeded player in his portion of the draw. Andujar who is 1-7 on Grass lifetime. Gasquet has a sparkling 70%+ win rate on Grass in his career, so it's all a matter of want this week for him. If he wants to play and do well here, he should. Ward & Matosevic in the 1st round pits wildcard and qualifier. Darcis v. Ebden and Andujar v. Baghdatis are the other matches. I think the Ward-Matosevic winner will pose the biggest threat to knocking off Gasquet, only because they will have had court-time on the surface whereas Gasquet has not played since the French Open. If he gets by that match though, even with the bad luck of the #1s - Gasquet should be in the semis.

                                          wow...couldn't have been more true.
                                          Comment
                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-06-06
                                            • 71662

                                            #22
                                            This is what I said to myself, if I bet based on my previews of tournaments I would probably be in positive units. I feel like I read them good to start, but somewhere from that point to the end, I see to meander off course. That is why I want to try this for several months. See if that holds true and try to work on my discipline by doing this project as well. Very difficult not to want to make a play on a parlay or something that just looks like a great play, etc.
                                            Comment
                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-06-06
                                              • 71662

                                              #23
                                              My Roddick Radar appears to have been working?


                                              Adding it ...

                                              Roddick +275/0.5 units

                                              No excuses in what's left of his draw. Really thought that if he survived early, he was a legit threat to win because he is the one guy I really thought wanted to be here and do well. Everyone he runs up against will be a dog maybe even through the Championship Match if he makes it there, so the hedge will be there if needed.
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #24
                                                And even though I didn't really cap it, the Dutch tournament - Malisse @ +500 right now seems like a steal.
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #25
                                                  6.21.12
                                                  ATP Doubles: Hertogenbosch
                                                  Malisse-Norman -135
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JNic
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-03-10
                                                    • 4272

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                    My Roddick Radar appears to have been working?

                                                    Lol the draw blew wide open for him, he definitely has to take advantage
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hedgejob
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-21-09
                                                      • 2561

                                                      #27
                                                      Took Seppi as dog to beat Kohli today. Kohli likely fatigued, he's played a lot of tennis lately.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #28
                                                        I would advise putting something on Darcis against Roddick. Roddick struggled quite a bit in a lengthy three setter with Fognini. His serve was not popping at all. He might win but looked beatable.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • beefcake
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 11-26-09
                                                          • 14029

                                                          #29
                                                          Saw that he had 0 aces mid way through the 2nd set.Good find!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • beefcake
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-26-09
                                                            • 14029

                                                            #30
                                                            Jesus H Christ, Kohl retires..who was it yesterday that we might see these today?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • boranoki23
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 02-28-10
                                                              • 251

                                                              #31
                                                              istomin **** up!!!!!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • beefcake
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-26-09
                                                                • 14029

                                                                #32
                                                                Well, roddick match is at 11am, no line yet,wonder if 5 dimes will post one.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ParlayininHTown
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 06-27-10
                                                                  • 7561

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                                  I would advise putting something on Darcis against Roddick. Roddick struggled quite a bit in a lengthy three setter with Fognini. His serve was not popping at all. He might win but looked beatable.

                                                                  +1

                                                                  It's no secret that Roddick isn't in the greatest shape these days. Two matches in one day? With Wimbledon starting in three days?

                                                                  If you're Roddick, the smart thing to do is bail. Give Darcis the walkover and GTFO of Eastbourne, because you've got bigger fish to fry. But I get that Roddick hasn't won a title yet this season, and perhaps winning Eastbourne is more important to him than getting to the 3rd or 4th round of Wimbledon at this point.

                                                                  Seppi has points to defend, and he only had to play half a match today, so he might as well do what he can to knock off Harrison. Harrison has the goods to give him fits, though. Hopefully they'll release some lines soon so we at least have the option of making more bets today ... I have some catching up to do.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • beefcake
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-26-09
                                                                    • 14029

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Break darcis!!!!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #35
                                                                      They put Seppi @ -225 at Bovada. Apparently 5Dimes is cool with getting outclassed on tennis lines today. I'm letting my Seppi future ride for another match. Harrison might give him a tough match, but Harrison wasn't overly convincing against Istomin. Have to learn as I go on my hedging strategies, but for this one definitely holding out for another round because I really think Seppi has an excellent chance to repeat.
                                                                      Comment
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