Balls to the Wall: Week of Oct.13

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-12-08, 05:38 PM

Taking Nadal at +215 & Nalbandian at +750 for the futures. Top seed has made the finals in 3 of the last 4 years here and won it twice. Nalbandian is the defending champ and seems to be playing his best tennis of the year now. Will have a tough road, but he beat the top three seeds in Federer, Nadal & Djokovic here last year to win. Impressive.

**meganie** · 10-12-08, 08:23 PM

Can't see anyone but Nadal or Federer winning.
Djokovic made too many errors in his last final against Tsonga, Del Potro is probably tired, so is Monfils, Nalbandian had a little slump in the second set against Söderling today, he gave up a one break lead, if he does that against the No. 1 or 2, he is getting killed (of course, with Nalbandian you never know what you'll get), Davydenko also not in great form, can't see anyone else but Murray having chances.

Did you find any matches you like for tomorrow? Didn't find anything in Madrid, placed a small bet on A. Bondarenko and parlayed Robredo with Fish, but couldn't find any matches to play single.

Addition: Forget about Robredo. Didn't notice it when I placed the bet but according to TI he has a hip injury and that's why he withdraw in Vienna. If I had known that earlier, I'd have parlayed Fish with Cilic.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-12-08, 09:58 PM

MON - Madrid

Fish -175(Darcis)
Maybe a little tricky here as Fish will be hitting the court for the first time since his fabulous US Open run. He's 6-4 all-time at this event & he's won over 60% of his last 50 indoor hard court matches. That should bode well against Darcis who has a good indoor hard court record, but that's skewed due to the level of competition in many of those matches. He did beat Soderling back in February though in Memphis, so he can be dangerous. However, that tournament appears to have been the blip on what otherwise has been a mediocre year for Darcis. He lost to Ancic in Stockholm last week and that's a similar player to Fish, fantastic serve & Fish probably has a better return game than Ancic. Darcis could get a set in this one if Fish is rusty from the layoff, but I think if Fish is still somewhere near his late summer form - he moves on with a hard fought win.

Everything else is really a coin flip or bad odds for the favorite. Andreev/Simon intrigues me, but there's just no edge there for either guy. I'm thinking Andreev perhaps comes out with some fire after his bad loss in Russia last week?

That Fish/Cilic parlay seems nice so long as both still have the form they had before this layoff.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-12-08, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by meganie

Can't see anyone but Nadal or Federer winning.
Djokovic made too many errors in his last final against Tsonga, Del Potro is probably tired, so is Monfils, Nalbandian had a little slump in the second set against Söderling today, he gave up a one break lead, if he does that against the No. 1 or 2, he is getting killed (of course, with Nalbandian you never know what you'll get), Davydenko also not in great form, can't see anyone else but Murray having chances.

I gotta admit I was in the fade Nalbandian camp last week in Stockholm, but looking more at his career - something with the indoor surface really revs him up. He was essentially in worse form heading into last year's event and then was just incredible in Madrid. I mean he beat Berdych, Del Potro, Nadal, Djokovic & then Federer.

I'm on Nadal at +215 and I think I've talked myself into taking two shots on the other side of the draw with Nalbandian at +750 and Murray at +500. Federer may very well get through his portion of the draw, but I think that side is much less clear cut.

**meganie** · 10-13-08, 10:00 AM

Yeah, that's why I said, with Nalbandian you never know what you'll get. He looked VERY sharp in his previous rounds in Stockholm, if he can continues like that in Madrid, he could get very far, but if he plays like in the second set in the final, I can see him losing against (probably) Berdych in the second round.

Some value bets I'm considering, probably won't play anyone of those, but just some thoughts:
Szavay (+162) over Bartoli: The reason is simple, Bartoli retired in her last match, Szavay doesn't seem to be in top form, but who knows...
Schiavone (+150) over Wozniacki: I was sweating like hell when Wozniacki played an out-of-form Chekvedatze, she also retired against Petrova, ok, Schiavone lost against an out-of-form Hantuchova, but still, Wozniacki played a lot recently, and there's a good chance that her fitness isn't the best right now.
Pennetta (+200) over Petrova: I can't figure out Pennetta, first she kicks out V. Williams, than she nearly loses against Makarova and than she plays great points against Jankovic. If we see the Jankovic-Pennetta, she has a great chance, if we see the First-set-Makarova-Pennetta, she'll lose 0-6 0-6.
Moya (+137) over Kohlschreiber: He plays at home, he did well in his last tournaments, I think he has a chance against Kohlschreiber.

The odds for Murray against Bolelli just came out, a joke if you consider that Berdych has the same odds against Schüttler.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-13-08, 10:20 AM

I actually like Kohlschreiber in that one against Moya I think. He impressed me with his comeback last week. Moya has played well, but I think Moya might be getting gassed after a long season whereas Kohlschreiber may be fresher having had a month and a half off before last week.

Thinking about playing Hantuchova this morning over Kirilenko. Not much advantage between the two in recent form, but Hantuchova does lead the head-2-head (4-1). Kirilenko did beat her on indoor hard court in that lone win, but does not play the surface much. Kirilenko had a great run to win a tourney in Seoul last month, but otherwise has been booted in the 1st round in 5 of 6 tourneys. Hantuchova hasn't done much, but she's had bad draws having to play Zvonereva early a couple times in her last 2 tourneys.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-13-08, 11:57 AM

Fish/Cilic parlay cashes!

**meganie** · 10-13-08, 12:23 PM

Happy for you, but I actually need Robredo to win.

To continue the Moya-Kohlschreiber-discussion, I think I won't play Moya, wish you gl with Kohlschreiber.

I just think that Moya was unlucky to lose everytime against a red hot player in his last tournaments. He lost against Petzschner, Tursunov and Simon, wo all won the tournaments.
On the other hand, Moya struggled in every first round. He had tie breaks against Berrer and three setters against Montanes and Martin.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-13-08, 01:41 PM

Yeah I'll be looking at all the matches later when I see lines at my book. Hantuchova was a wasted effort. Fortunately I didn't bet much on that one, so stillin + territory today.

GL with Robredo!

**meganie** · 10-13-08, 05:00 PM

Perfect day, although Robredo was very close.

For tomorrow only one bigger bet so far: James Blake (-164) over Gilles Simon.

Also a tiny amount on Pennetta (+200) over Petrova.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-13-08, 08:23 PM

TUES - Madrid

Ginepri -140(Llodra)
Two solid players here, but Ginepri I think is the one to take here. He's had a pretty solid career in Madrid and beat two very capable players in Tipsarevic & Schwank in qualifying. Ginepri's serve looked crisp in those two matches with 19 combined aces. In Madrid, Ginepri has found things to his liking until he meets the top seed. He's lost to the #1 seed in this tournament in each of the last three years (R32, Quarters,Semis). Llodra is certainly capable of winning this as evidenced by a tournament win on the indoor surface in Rotterdam this Spring. However, his last match was a poor display in Russia where he lost in the 1st round to a qualifier. Llodra also boasts no experience on the Madrid court whereas Ginepri has been playing here for years and already has the two qualifying matches under his belt. Could be alot of big serves here, but I think Ginepri stands tall and gets through by verge of a slightly better return game.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-13-08, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by meganie

For tomorrow only one bigger bet so far: James Blake (-164) over Gilles Simon.
.

I don't like that one myself. Blake has never won in four tries at this tournament and when last we saw him, he was out-of-sorts at the US Open. Simon meanwhile beat a player who will try to do the same things as Blake (Big serve/Big forehand) in Andreev. Simon showed alot of moxy in beating Andreev after losing the first set and then being down late in the 3rd. Blake has battered him twice on hard courts this year, so either Blake owns him and will make quick work of him or the more likely I think is another intense battle like Simon/Andreev today. I just don't see paying anything above -130 or whatever on Blake in what is closer in my opinion to an even match. (I see Blake at -140 on Pinnacle) Not sure I'll dive in and take Simon, but at + money I like it better.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-13-08, 09:20 PM

Pretty certain that Fish +140 against Gasquet is going to be a play as well. I like that one a bunch.

**meganie** · 10-14-08, 05:42 AM

I also took Fish, but at +162, nice price.

GL with Ginepri, I considered it myself, but for what I've seen from him in Moscow, I'll stay from it. He made so many baseline errors that I started to hate him (had a little bet on him). So no play for me.

My reason for taking Simon is based on what I saw from Simon yesterday. Andreev was the better player in the first set, but Simon started to play better in the second and third set. Andreev was still to unpatient, way too many forehands ended up nowhere, so basically it was Andreev who let the match slip away. I think Blake is a class above Andreev, so I can't see Simon winning here.

Mathieu is losing again against clay courter Granollers

(So happy his price was so low that it wasn't even a consideration)

**meganie** · 10-14-08, 07:13 AM

Can't believe Blake let Simon take away the match like candy from a little kid...What is going on in this man's brain?

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-14-08, 08:44 AM

Sorry about that Blake one for you. That was one thing I decided before this tournament even started was that I would take Simon or Andreev over him because of his poor record in Madrid. Hopefully Fish can come through!

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-14-08, 09:43 AM

Okay, now I'm seeing that Bolleli retired & not Andy Murray! Damn it that made me sweat! Futures bet still rolling.

**meganie** · 10-14-08, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Mother F! Andy Murray just retired! That futures bet just got boned. Must have been something bad, he bageled Bolleli in the 1st and was up 2-1 in the 2nd.

Nope, Bolelli had some problems with his shoulder and retired.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-14-08, 10:44 AM

Down goes Tursonov. Djokovic plays Hanescu in the 2nd round now. Easy match for him.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-14-08, 01:22 PM

Looks like Fish is gonna flop. He had a shot in the 3rd, it was 15-40 in the 2nd service game but Gasquet saved it and wound up breaking him a couple games later. Fish never really figured out Gasquet's serve consistently and sucked on his own 2nd serve.

**meganie** · 10-14-08, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

He had a shot in the 3rd, it was 15-40 in the 2nd service game but Gasquet saved it and wound up breaking him a couple games later.

He also had 0-40 on Gasquet's first game in the second set but gave it away. Fish today was similar to Roddick recently, very good serve, but not very good from the baseline. Everytime his serve wasn't working, he got into troubles.

Berdych-Nalbandian tomorrow will be very interesting. Berdych continued to impress me against Schüttler, very few mistakes and great shots plus his big serve. Placed a small one on him.

Kohlschreiber played also very good, Moya had no chance, although the Spaniard also made too many errors.

Nadal-Gulbis: Nadal wasn't Nadal-like, I don't think he'll win this tournament. Gulbis should've won, he had several Breakpoints, but mostly didn't convert them. Nadal rescued some critical situations with his serve. Otherwise he didn't play well, his forehand wasn't the way it used to be, he hit too many of them into the net and was dominated by Gulbis in the rallies. He also had an injury time out (he had something with his hip (?)).

Murray was impressive today, you made a good one with him.

Originally I wanted to play Kohlschreiber over Wawrinka, but the odds dropped dramatically within a few hours. They opened at -125 and now they are at -175. Hmmm...
Probably gonna parlay Söderling/Roddick. I'm also unsure about Monfils over Gonzalez, Monfils' health is my concern.

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-14-08, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by meganie

Originally I wanted to play Kohlschreiber over Wawrinka, but the odds dropped dramatically within a few hours. They opened at -125 and now they are at -175. Hmmm...

Really? I got him at -130 just now

**meganie** · 10-14-08, 05:57 PM

Yes, at bet365 they are 1.57 decimal (which is -175).

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-14-08, 09:35 PM

WED - Madrid

Kohlschreiber -140(Wawrinka)
I've been very impressed with Kohlschreiber's return to the court after dropping out of the US Open. He whipped Verdasco in Austria and took Monfils (eventual Champ) to a 3rd set tie break. Then he follows that up by drubbing home-standing Carlos Moya here in the first round. His serve has been solid & he'll need more of the same against Wawrinka. The Swiss has been struggling since the US Open. Stan The Man beat Darcis in Davis Cup action, but was pushed hard. Then he had some problems with Petzschner's serve in losing in the 1st round in Austria & he withdrew from the doubles competition there with some sort of neck issue. So you take a guy with questionable health and throw him in against a guy who looks to be regaining his top form and I think Kohlschreiber gets this done in a couple of tough sets.

Ginepri +210(Davydenko)
This is one I singled out before the tournament when looking at the draws. Ginepri seems to like playing in Madrid with a 15-5 record here all-time. He's even beaten Davydenko at this tournament, back in 2005. As I said in the write-up yesterday, it's taken the #1 seed to take him out in the last 3 tries in Madrid. Davydenko meanwhile does not fare well here. He's 1-3 all-time in Madrid. He's also coming off an unexpected loss to Marat Safin in Moscow where Safin pounded him with 17 aces and negated Davydenko's excellent return game. Ginepri may not bring the same pop as Safin on his serve, but he did display superb form with his serve against Tipsarevic in qualifying and again in beating Llodra yesterday. A side note - Davydenko lost to Llodra just a few weeks back. If Ginepri stays consistent with his 1st & 2nd serve and Davydenko falters with his own serve (6 doubles vs. Safin/33% 2nd serve pts vs. Llodra) - Ginepri has a real shot here and possesses excellent value at this price.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-14-08, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by meganie

Nadal-Gulbis: Nadal wasn't Nadal-like, I don't think he'll win this tournament. Gulbis should've won, he had several Breakpoints, but mostly didn't convert them. Nadal rescued some critical situations with his serve. Otherwise he didn't play well, his forehand wasn't the way it used to be, he hit too many of them into the net and was dominated by Gulbis in the rallies. He also had an injury time out (he had something with his hip (?)).

I think it's a bit premature to judge anyone after one match here. Especially considering this was Nadal's 1st in a month and a half on hard courts and first in close to a month after the Davis Cup matches. Nadal will of course need to clean it up against Gasquet who appears to be in good form, but then again Fish had his chance to beat him too.

**meganie** · 10-15-08, 04:49 AM

I said that I don't think he'll win because of his injury that he appears to have. Of course he can step up like Federer did at the US Open, it's just my opinion, no offense.
If he'll win and you get your money, than I am happy for you.

**xstud** · 10-15-08, 07:05 AM

thanks for the Ginepri pick! made some nice coin on it..

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-15-08, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by meganie

I said that I don't think he'll win because of his injury that he appears to have. Of course he can step up like Federer did at the US Open, it's just my opinion, no offense.
If he'll win and you get your money, than I am happy for you.

I understand. I just didn't think it appeared to be serious from what I read and he has a day of recovery before facing Gasquet. Awesome morning so far.

Ginepri

Nalbandian stays alive for my futures wager & part of a parlay

**rain_e** · 10-15-08, 09:10 AM

Liking D. Ferrer at 1.8 today vis Lopez for 1 unit.

**meganie** · 10-15-08, 09:10 AM

Yes, your Ginepri-pick was awesome. Too bad, I wake up to late so I didn't see it in time.

Söderling was a terrible pick, Nalbandian was simply too good for Berdych, at least Monfils is looking good. And Pennetta beat Petrova 6-1 6-1 !!??

The ones I was the most impressed with so far were Murray and Nalbandian (although Nalbandian had a lack of concentration in the second set). Monfils looks sharp too, curious to see Roddick, Del Potro and Federer. Djokovic just got broken by Hanescu who barely beat an Tursunov with shoulder injury and no serve, wtf?

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-15-08, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by rain_e

Liking D. Ferrer at 1.8 today vis Lopez for 1 unit.

Not liking that one myself. Ferrer is another one of those guys who does not play well here and he's had a pretty forgettable end of the season. The price flip flopped big on Bookmaker in the span of 10 minutes this morning. Ferrer went from -125 to EVEN. I think Lopez takes this, but I am probably gonna sit it out.

Did you bet on Pennetta Meganie? I thought about that one too, but concentrated on Ginepri instead.

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-15-08, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

[b]WED - Madrid

Kohlschreiber -140(Wawrinka)
Ginepri +210(Davydenko)

THANKS for the Ginepri tip!!

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-15-08, 09:25 AM

LMAO @ this "analysis" of the Lopez vs Ferrer matchup

"Headbands tend to cut circulation of blood to the brain if you are Spanish. These 2 are the dumbest****ers around and if you bet on a match like this, you need to really remove your own headband."

Too true I must say

**meganie** · 10-15-08, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Did you bet on Pennetta Meganie? I thought about that one too, but concentrated on Ginepri instead.

Yes I did. Just a small one, but still, got me some money back for the Söderling flop.

I agree with you on Ferrer (no play) except that I think that Ferrer will win. Watching Montanes vs. Lopez yesterday was better than counting sheeps, boring, boring, boring. Ferrer played much better in Tokyo in the second set against Del Potro.