Balls to the Wall: Week of Oct.13

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-15-08, 09:34 AM

I think Djokovic is alot like Nadal - rusty. He hasn't played in three weeks, so not surprising that a guy in Hanescu who has a match already on this surface is pushing him in the 1st set. Man Monfils just owns Fernando!

Also decided to put a little on Lopez over Ferrer. I think there is a definite edge there for Lopez based on past experiences, etc. We'll see if he can do it or not.

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-15-08, 10:43 AM

I think Djokovic is gonna throw the TB haha.. he's pissed at not converting the BPs he had

**meganie** · 10-15-08, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

I think Djokovic is gonna throw the TB haha.. he's pissed at not converting the BPs he had

No.

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-15-08, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by meganie

No.

Luckily! Nole looks rusty, he's survived this so I think the 3rd set is for him.

**meganie** · 10-15-08, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

Luckily! Nole looks rusty, he's survived this so I think the 3rd set is for him.

Hopefully. He looks a lot better since the end of the second set, should be able to break.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-15-08, 11:22 AM

Djokovic & Del Potro advance when their opponents retire.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-15-08, 01:32 PM

Lopez in straights over Ferrer

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-15-08, 01:58 PM

Man the stadiums look so empty.. I know I'd be excited if I got to go.. top notch players in an intimate atmosphere - and somehow the place is like 10% filled.

**meganie** · 10-15-08, 02:00 PM

Actually it's sold out: http://www.mutuamad-mastersmadrid.com//eng/tickets.htm

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-15-08, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by meganie

Actually it's sold out: http://www.mutuamad-mastersmadrid.com//eng/tickets.htm

oh wow... doesn't look like it

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-15-08, 02:28 PM

Well Kohlschreiber boned it in the 3rd set. Broke Wawrinka early and had a 4-1 lead in the tie break only to lose 7-5. Screwed my parlay up.

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-15-08, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Well Kohlschreiber boned it in the 3rd set. Broke Wawrinka early and had a 4-1 lead in the tie break only to lose 7-5. Screwed my parlay up.

**pat venditto** · 10-15-08, 02:30 PM

Wawrinka was the play pal.

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-15-08, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by pat venditto

Wawrinka was the play pal.

How can you possibly say anything "pal" the match was as 50/50 as it could get.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-15-08, 02:34 PM

Wawrinka was the play because Pat picked him to win and he won. If he lost, I'm sure he would never have ventured into this thread. C'est La Vie.

**pat venditto** · 10-15-08, 02:43 PM

The match was not 50/50 slight edge to wawrinka and I got +125 making it +ev.

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-15-08, 10:21 PM

Ginepri +158
Del Potro +155
Roddick/Murray at -112

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-15-08, 11:15 PM

THURS - Madrid

Ginepri +150(Simon)
Solid value remains with Ginepri who I reiterate - really likes playing in Madrid! Now 16-5 in his career here, he faces pesky Giles Simon. Simon has worked hard to dipatch Blake and Andreev. His serve has served him well although it wasn't overly potent against Blake - just very efficient. Simon has provided his opponents with 18 break chances in the first two rounds, but saved 15 of those. Conversely, Ginepri has taken what few chances his opponents gave him (12) and broke them 6 times. He's also been adept at saving his own hide, holding 10 of 13 break chances. It's another match where not much seperates the two, so taking the better odds on a guy who knows this court well seems like a solid wager.
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That's the best edge I see tomorrow, others to look at that definitely have value - but not the definitive edge I like:

Lopez +130(Wawrinka)
Lopez has been riding a wicked 2nd serve through the first two rounds and offered exactly four break chances, saving three of them. He'll need that against Wawrinka who blistered 15 aces against Kohlschreiber. Still, after a dominating service match, Wawrinka needed Kohlschreiber to fold in the 3rd set tie break after Kohlschreiber broke him early and led 4-1. The break chances were few in that match with both men offering up 4, Wawrinka relinquishing two of those. This looks like it will be a super tight match with one or two breaks potentially deciding the match. Lopez has lost here in Madrid twice in the quarters - but both were to Federer - a chance to get to the semis in his home country could provide that extra spark.

Nalbandian -165(Del Potro)
Del Potro was well ahead of Niemenen before he retired yesterday & his first serve sparkled, a perfect 21/21 in winning points. That figure should be put to the test against a better returner in Nalbandian who I emphasize again - seems to flip the switch on here late in the year on indoor hard courts. They met on this very court last fall with Nalbandian winning in straights. Del Potro's second serve was where Nalbandian beat him & he'll hope that will be the case again today after winning 55% of the points off of Berdych's second serve. I still get the feeling that Nalbandian is finally getting "in the zone" while Del Potro is pushing his best to make it through the end of a loooong, yet fruitful year. I think Nalbandian wears him down unless Del Potro can pull out a huge service match.

Bartoli +160(Ivanovic)
Nothing in depth here. I just think plus money against Ana Ivanovic with a capable player is worth playing at this point. Bartoli looked strong in her 1st round match with Szavay. That gives her the edge in court experience on this Swiss surface. What can I say about Ivanovic except her last two losses came to opponents who failed to register an ace on serve and combined for 21 double faults - yet WON both times.

Best parlay for me: Nalbandian/Jankovic

**pat venditto** · 10-16-08, 02:02 AM

im on del potro +150 gl.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-16-08, 08:28 AM

Tough beat for Ginepri. Del Potro had the dominating 1st serve and that was the difference today for him. Impressive.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-16-08, 10:00 AM

Well at least Lopez came through against Wawrinka. If Bartoli gets it done, it'll be a nice rebound from earlier.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-16-08, 10:47 AM

Crap! I forgot to make a small play on Monfils at +185 this morning. He beat Roddick.

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-16-08, 11:41 AM

I've lost with Kohlscriber in the 3rd set TB, Ginepri 3rd set TB with two match points, Roddick in the third.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-16-08, 12:12 PM

Nadal rolled Gasquet today. So I still got him & Murray for my futures working.

Feel alot better about Nadal after the way he played today. Wasn't dominant, but played steady and didn't Gasquet too many break chances.

Those 3rd set tie breakers are a bitch to lose.

**ZXCVBNM** · 10-16-08, 12:27 PM

I think Karlovic easily has a chance today.

Djokovic struggled against Hanescu, another big server, and Karlovic is like double that. If anything he might take a set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-16-08, 12:36 PM

I'm not playing that one. I think Djokovic needed a match to get the rust off. He knows how to beat big servers as evidenced by the dismantling of Roddick in the US Open. You know what you're gonna get in a Karlovic match, tie breakers and if he gets broken once - that set is pretty much done.

Alot of people will give Karlovic an edge because they say the indoor hard surface should give him the edge, but the speed of this court doesn't appear to be that quick comparitively speaking to others.

I'm gonna lay down a small wager on Tsonga at +450. I think Federer wins, but those odds are way too juicy for a player of Tsonga's caliber. If he is healthy (questionable) & Roger is a little loose, this match could go either way in a 3rd set.

**meganie** · 10-16-08, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

I think Karlovic easily has a chance today.

Djokovic struggled against Hanescu, another big server, and Karlovic is like double that. If anything he might take a set.

Did you see his match? I couldn't believe it myself after I saw Hanescu vs. Tursunov, but Hanescu played very well. I can't imagine that Karlovic could make those shots from the baseline for the winner. -450 for Djokovic is too low, but I wouldn't go for Karlovic at +300 either.

**meganie** · 10-16-08, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Crap! I forgot to make a small play on Monfils at +185 this morning. He beat Roddick.

I didn't but only made a veeery small play. Still very satisfied, I like Monfils' playing style. Did you see the match? Was Roddick so bad or Monfils so good?

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-16-08, 01:20 PM

Didn't see the match. Looking at the stats, it looks like Monfils was solid. Only thing I don't see is errors - so Andy may have made his share of those, but Roddick had his usual aces and solid serve percentages. Monfils saved 7/8 breaks and broke Roddick 2/3 tries - that was probably the difference.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-16-08, 02:14 PM

Forgettable day for me. Only wound up losing a little because of Lopez winning and using Nalbandian in a parlay rather than straight up. Tsonga had nothing in the 2nd set against Federer, but hey it was $25 to win $112.50.

**Boner_18** · 10-16-08, 05:06 PM

Gael Monfils

So, at what price is Monfils good value against Murray here? I have him at +220 and I'm not satisfied with that, maybe +280 or more and I make a play on him. I like his new attitude (I touted this back in the US open, new trainer, taking tennis seriously etc) but very simply he makes more mistakes then Murray...

Thoughts?

**meganie** · 10-16-08, 05:42 PM

I considered it myself, but went instead with Handicap +4. Monfils looked very to sharp to me, when he played Gonzalez, and his numbers against Roddick as Eagles explained looked quite ok. But I don't know if he got enough to beat Murray, who showed some mental strength against Cilic (Murray was down a break at 4-5, Cilic was serving for the first set, got 40-0 and still lost the game and set to Murray 7-5).

But if you wanna go for Monfils, wait a bit. I guarantee you that his odds will rise. Last time I looked at Pinnacle he was at (I think) +235, now he is at +250.

My plays for tomorrow: Pennetta at -150 (pretty sure that this one will drop), mini bet on Schiavone at +600 and Monfils with Handicap +4 at -110.
Adding parlay Azarenka/Nadal at -185.
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Lol, now the odds on Monfils went back to +242. I think +250 is about the max you can get for him.
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I'm also gonna play Handicap Simon, if he is over +2.5.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-16-08, 08:08 PM

WTA - Zurich

Pennetta -150(Srebotnik)
Pennetta has been tremendous in two matches here although I do think she caught Jankovic on one of those bad days. Srebotnik is lucky to be here as Radwanska gifted her the second set and then folded in the third. These two have met in Zurich twice before with a split, although Srebotnik got the last one on a retirement. Pennetta has been on a nice run late in the summer starting with the quarters at the US Open. Her confidence should be sky high after wins against Petrova & Jankovic - both of whom had been playing extremely well. I think she seizes the moment for her first semifinal appearance at a tourney since July.

I'm not with Meganie on this one though - I'm not banking on the price dropping. I can see it going off at -170 or higher as the match approaches. I think alot of people will be hopping aboard Pennetta's train tomorrow as she seems to be the bet of the day for some folks.

I'm going to sit on Simon right now. I do like him at plus money tomorrow against Karlovic who falls into my favorite formula - the let down. It's inevitable that he could struggle some after the huge win against Djokovic. Simon will need to pounce on any second serves from Karlovic and win those points to have a shot though. I'm hoping more people will hop on Big Ivo's bandwagon and push the price for Simon to +150.

**meganie** · 10-16-08, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I'm not with Meganie on this one though - I'm not banking on the price dropping. I can see it going off at -170 or higher as the match approaches. I think alot of people will be hopping aboard Pennetta's train tomorrow as she seems to be the bet of the day for some folks.

Lol, I meant that with price dropping. -170 < -150 I'm counting with minus numbers.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-16-08, 08:15 PM

Oh sorry. Heh. Gotcha. I'm also considering a play on Monfils as this is the point in the tournament where I think I should hedge against my futures play on Murray so long as it makes sense. Monfils at this big a price does.