EP36's Tennis Elbow

[blackbeSSt]

ep where you getting that monaco bet? 5d?

[dlweaver]

you NEVER get better odds this way. Tell me what the end in 3 odds are and i'll show you. PS- i'm a math teacher

Vina Del Mar MAD MATH

Monaco 2-0 [+200]
Monaco 2-1 [+275]

The MAD Math formula for me is taking the two exact results over the "ends in 3" result for a match because normally you are getting better odds ... as long as your expected winner does indeed win. Difficult to take much off Montanes through two rounds against lower level competition here. His results prior to coming to Chile were poor, losing to Starace & Riba on hard courts. Monaco pushed Kohlschreiber well in five @ Melbourne and blew Andreev off the court to open here. Monaco scuffled out the gate in 2011 with injury and never really seemed to find a groove. Montanes is a solid competitor on this surface and he beat Monaco twice in the past - both a long time ago, but this looks a good spot for Monaco to get out to a good start on his preferred surface in 2012. You wager either a unit on each result or half a unit, whatever you'd be comfortable with and if one hits, then you're guaranteed some profit. We'll see how it works.

[dlweaver]

Or actually tell me what the moneyline was on Monaco to just win and i'll show you why that would be just as profitable

[dlweaver]

Monaco 2-0 [+200]
Monaco 2-1 [+275]

Monaco is -195 moneyline. Lets assume we bet 1 unit on (monaco 2-0) and 1 unit on(monaco 2-1) that would be a risk of 2 units. If one of these hits (which only one could hit) then we lose 1 unit automatically. If 2-0 hits we gain 2 units but lose 1 because 2-1 lost so we are +1 unit. If 2-1 hits we lose 1 unit because 2-0 lost and we gain +2.75 units. So we are either +1 unit or +1.75 units. IF monaco does not win we are -2 units because both lost. IF we take monaco moneyline at -195 to win 1 unit we have only risked 1.95 units (.05 less than the other way) and we get the +1 unit win. SO your 2-1 could be more profitable but in the long run is going to end up being a huge headache.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sorry I mis-spoke as I was doing two things at once and not paying attention. The Mad Math is actually the formula I use for taking both 2-1 results which always yields a better return than taking the Ends in 3 sets ... again as long as it goes 3. My mistake on the above explanation.

I gotta stop drinking in the morning [or start] .. so axe the Monaco plays as I just confused myself looking at several things. Thanks for pointing it out.

[EaglesPhan36]

Vina Del Mar Parlay: Chela + Monaco [-107]
Chela up against Souza who will finally get a good test I think here. Chela showed no signs of worry transitioning to clay with a straight sets win over Zeballos. He put constant pressure on Zeballos' serve and broke him just enough to get the job done. His serve was solid and he'll need that to eliminate a pesky player in Souza. Monaco as I outlined in the earlier and subsequently cancelled picks - breezed against Andreev and gets Montanes who has not been challenged thus far, but looked really poor before coming to Chile this week. This is Monaco's chance to get his season started off well after playing a solid five setter in a loss to Kohlschreiber in Melbourne. Assuming Chela wins and I think that is stronger than Monaco, there should be a hedge opportunity on Montanes if you feel the need.

[EaglesPhan36]

Youzhny needs to rev up his 1st serve percentage. His 2nd serve is getting crushed. C'mon fukko!

Speaking of which ... Nieminen sucks today. Looks like totals are not my thing so far.

[VikesPhanatic84]

Broke back!!

[VikesPhanatic84]

What a first set!!!!!

[showtiime]

Watching a match when you're fading Dr. Ivo when his 1st serve percentage is above 80% is pretty frustrating.

[blackbeSSt]

the dreaded tiebreak

[VikesPhanatic84]

Anyone likes Fredrico Gil?

[EaglesPhan36]

Well a couple nice wins, Berrer & Youzhny. Gasquet is gonna fukk me. It was between him and Baghdatis for the other leg in the Berlocq parlay. F-ing Frog.

[dlweaver]

Eagles... do you mind giving me and example of your 2-1 odds and the ends in 3 sets odds and me proving that it won't yield a better return?

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't have any matches currently where I can find "Ends in 3 sets" but let's take Pinnacle's odds for Monaco v. Montanes. Monaco Wins 2-1 @ +342. Montanes wins 2-1 @ +534. Normally when books set the "Ends in 3 sets" it will be significantly lower than the lowest 2-1 result since they are assuming it is easier because you're not picking the winner. For argument's sake, let's say they would give you +220 for the Ends in 3 sets prop. Obviously if the ends in three sets prop straight up isn't better than the lowest 2-1 result - you wouldn't try this....

So if you're betting one unit on the +220, you'd win 2.2 if the match ends in three sets. If you bet one unit on the +342 for Monaco and one unit on the +534 for Montanes .. IF it ends in three, you're lessening your return by one unit obviously because you're wagering on each, so the odds would lower to +242 for Monaco and +434 for Montanes. So if one of them wins in 3, you make either 2.42 for Monaco or 4.34 for Montanes vs. 2.20 for taking the ends in 3 sets prop straight up. Obviously a much larger gap for Montanes and just a slightly larger one for Monaco. Again your risk is greater of course with two units vs. one unit, but if you think it's going three and it does - your return will be slightly better at worse or much better depending on the result. That's my dumbed down math. I'm sure from a risk prospective, the math majors can tell me shit about probabilities, percentages and what not. But from a bottom line perspective of making money, if the bet hits - you make more than taking the straight ends in 3 sets prop. So that's Mad Math from my perspective.

[dlweaver]

Monaco Wins 2-1 @ +342
Montanes wins 2-1 @ +534
+220 for the Ends in 3

1 unit on Monaco to win and 1 unit on Montanes to win. If Monaco wins you lose 1 unit on Montanes and win 3.42 on monaco so you are up 2.42. If Montanes wins you lose 1 unit on Monaco but win 5.34 on Montanes so you are up 4.34. IF the match doesn't end in 3 sets you lose 2 units

Risking 2 units on the ends in 3 sets prop gives you +4.4 units if it ends in 3 sets and still losing 2 units if it does not.

So here are the possibilities:
With BOTH if it does not go 3 sets you LOSE 2 units
With your theory if Monaco wins you are up 2.42 units
With your theory if Montanes wins you are up 4.34 units
With MY theory if Monaco or Montanes wins in 3 sets you are UP 4.4 units


**Only reason that betting Monaco or Montanes separately would seem to pay more would be because you were risking a total of 2 units on the 3 sets (by placing one unit on each) and only placing 1 unit on the 3 sets by itself.**

[EaglesPhan36]

Makes sense.

[dlweaver]

Eagles.. i actually looked over this before when those odds JUMPED OUT at me and thought wow I should take this. Then I sat down and did the math and realized that's probably "EXACTLY" what the books want you to do.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll have to see what the exact odds are next time when I see all three possibilities listed somewhere, but you make perfect sense with your thinking unless I am way off on the ends in 3 sets price - which is possible. It may not be even that high. I have my old thread where I did this for a couple matches last year, if I have time to dig it up - I'll post the odds here.

[dlweaver]

That's coool. You do a great job I wasn't bashing you just finding ways to make us $

[apeterlives]

monfis-simon match will be fun not sure who to go with yet

[EaglesPhan36]

That's coool. You do a great job I wasn't bashing you just finding ways to make us $

Oh no, I appreciate it. Math isn't my strong suit for sure especially when I'm in a hurry.

I took that Simon future hoping Monfils would be the match-up. Simon is a bad match-up for the ass clown because he'll try to make a lot of big shots when he gets tired of rallying with him, but Simon looked horrible today. Either letting the future ride or grabbing Monfils future to hedge as that really will be the only effective way to me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Burnie Challenger: Groth +145
Riding the Aussie to the title against Udomchoke. I use the same reasoning really as the last couple of rounds and that is his superior serve can get him cheap points, while Udomchoke will have more pressure to retain his service games. They've met before, both in 2009 on this surface with each winning once. I think this is a big deal to Groth because it would be his first title on the Challenger or ATP level and he's in his home country. If he brings that A+ serve, he should have his opportunity.

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlays: 6-6 [-0.43]
Totals: 1-3 [-2.60]
Dogs: 7-4 [+7.30]
Favorites: 1-0 [+1.00]
Challengers: 4-2 [+3.00]
Doubles: 1-0 [+1.00]
-----------------------
Total: 20-15 [+9.27]

Updated with Monaco pending in the last leg of the parlay & Groth later on @ Burnie. Berrer saved my butt today.

[EdwardHaney]

Burnie Challenger: Groth +145
Riding the Aussie to the title against Udomchoke. I use the same reasoning really as the last couple of rounds and that is his superior serve can get him cheap points, while Udomchoke will have more pressure to retain his service games. They've met before, both in 2009 on this surface with each winning once. I think this is a big deal to Groth because it would be his first title on the Challenger or ATP level and he's in his home country. If he brings that A+ serve, he should have his opportunity.

Excellent pick on Groth yesterday vs Sugita. I tailed you on it...I'm not sure if I'll go to the well again though. Good luck.

[TheMetsSuck]

I tailed you on groth and will do so again. i've rode the zopp pick last few days and hoping to see you on him again.

[EaglesPhan36]

This Monaco-Montanes match is terrible. Six breaks of serve in the 1st set, Montanes wins it 6-3. Monaco get your shit straight fukko!

[EaglesPhan36]

Monaco rolls after dropping the 1st, parlay complete.

[TheMetsSuck]

is zopp playing? Don't see a line on him?

[EaglesPhan36]

For Saturday ...

ATP Montpellier: Monfils 2-0 [+120]
#1, a hedge on my Simon future for this tournament and #2, after seeing today's match with Simon and Rufin - a possible scenario. Monfils has not matched well with Simon in limited head-2-heads. However, I believe Monfils had a few injury issues in both those meetings to Simon which resulted in him losing one and retiring in the other. At or close to full health and playing well, if his serve holds up, he could sweep through Simon who looked very iffy against Rufin.

ATP Zagreb: Berrer +200
The prices that continue to be put out for a guy who has made the finals here twice in a row are beyond me. Berrer has done nothing but win on these courts and he's still being treated as a large underdog. Youzhny is the draw here. The Russian had to work hard and dig deep to beat Karlovic in 3. Youzhny won ten less points than Dr.Ivo in that match and that's one of those key numbers I look at when looking at the next match for a player. I like Berrer's resolve so far here and he looks like he's playing with a little chip on his shoulder against "bigger names." If his serve can hold up against Youzhny's return skills, Berrer has a shot at final #3 in a row here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gabashvili withdrew, Zopp got a walkover into the final.

[MUHerd37]

Kvitova gets broken while serving for the match. This is why I just hate Fed Cup. Goerges should have gotten crushed.

[MUHerd37]

Kvitova wins 10-8 in the 3rd! I'll take it but it shouldn't have ever been that close.

[blackbeSSt]

well monfils not only screwed up winning 2-0, but he killed out simon future

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah he's stll a fukkin clown. Blew break leads in two sets. An efficient player would have taken care of Simon easier.