EP36's Tennis Elbow

**sharlataans** · 02-03-12, 05:45 AM

Originally posted by Yezzir

Damn, Zopp is +188 now on Bet365.

Sharlaataans, Zopp has looked very impressive, whilst I watched Bemelmans match yesterday, he was utter dog sh1t against a clay courter, and really should have lost, but Maceiras choked away the break in the 3rd serving for the match.

Anyway, I know it's a challenger event, but Zopp is my bet of the day.

OK good luck, I pass

**sharlataans** · 02-03-12, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

ATP Monpellier: Nieminen-Monfils Over 21.5 [-135]

Really like this this pick, too bad it is so juiced.

**apeterlives** · 02-03-12, 05:58 AM

Simon-Rufin odds seem to be dipping for Simon, any of you know anything? Simon will probably 2-0 him anyway

**TheMetsSuck** · 02-03-12, 06:15 AM

nice work. tailed you on a few last two days that worked out for me. keep up the good work

**apeterlives** · 02-03-12, 06:18 AM

going to take a risk and play rufin +400 for fun, not expecting this to hit haha

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 06:18 AM

Groth comes through in straights. Garbagevili fails to blow it, so the parlay is complete!

I think people just pounding Rufin because they don't trust Simon, so taking Rufin at big odds. I think the disadvantage for Rufin is playing Simon for the first time. That vanilla style Simon plays sometimes is difficult for players to adjust to I think who are playing him for the first time. I think if Rufin serves big, he can keep it close, question is will that be enough? Simon sucked on this surface last year, but he had a shit year in general. Go back to 2010 and he was pretty tough on it. End of the day, I'd be surprised if Rufin beat him. Beating Lopez is one thing because Lopez probably didn't give a shit to be at the tourney. Both these guys are French, so effort should be high.

**EdwardHaney** · 02-03-12, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by apeterlives

going to take a risk and play rufin +400 for fun, not expecting this to hit haha

If you didn't get in on Rufin in the last round you are one step behind. Good luck with your for fun play.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 06:31 AM

5Dimes put up some futures prices for current tourneys, going to try a couple out.

Montpellier
Simon +450
Berdych +225

Simon could lose to Rufin or run the table, so it is risky hence the fourth highest price of the quarterfinalists. Still, if he survives today, he'd be up against Monfils or Nieminen next. He has a good record against Monfils and Nieminen would be a solid hedge price I expect. Berdych has the easier route, Mahut today and then Gasquet or Kohlschreiber. Would be surprised if he isn't in the final.

**apeterlives** · 02-03-12, 06:32 AM

what in the world is going on with the lines, look at this
7:00 AM
4053 JARKKO NIEMINEN +1805
4054 GAEL MONFILS -3305

**EdwardHaney** · 02-03-12, 06:38 AM

Originally posted by apeterlives

what in the world is going on with the lines, look at this
7:00 AM
4053 JARKKO NIEMINEN +1805
4054 GAEL MONFILS -3305

Who do you like?

**apeterlives** · 02-03-12, 06:43 AM

Not any of those! That's clearly a bad line, some books they can and will ban your account for life and force you to cashout if you take those

it's way off the market price, the real price is like -330 monfis +280 jarkko .. If I had to pick one i'd pick monfis but he always plays jarkko tightly so likely to be monfis in 3 sets

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 06:46 AM

What book hung that shit?

**apeterlives** · 02-03-12, 06:47 AM

bookmaker; they corrected it though

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 07:00 AM

Good deal. Funny. Bovada raised the price on Zopp to -175 and 5Dimes lowered it from -200 last night to -160 this morning. All in all, that -150 I got still better than what is offered. Hopefully he comes through.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 07:51 AM

Zopp ... spankin' ... that ... ass.

**fenek** · 02-03-12, 08:01 AM

damn, yesterday i saw the bemelmans match and thought mid the 3rd set i have to fade the winner of this match, today i saw the line against zopp but didnt want to play it @1.5, so wanted to wait but then he ran away, without me. congrats !

**sharlataans** · 02-03-12, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Zopp ... spankin' ... that ... ass.

Good call

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 08:03 AM

Adding this.

ATP Montpellier: Berdych-Mahut Over 20.5 [+100]
Berdych beat a very flat Serra in a rout, 6-2 & 6-0. Mahut's serve this week has been solid and this surface should be conducive to him continuing that against Berdych, I think. If Mahut can hold for one tight set at 7-5 or 7-6, this should get done even in straights as I expect Berdych to prevail in the end.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 08:07 AM

Updated with the overnight results. I should retire after this week.

Parlays: 6-5 [+0.72]
Totals: 1-1 [-0.20]
Dogs: 6-4 [+5.00]
Favorites: 0-0 [+0.00]
Challengers: 4-2 [+3.00]
Doubles: 1-0 [+1.00]
-----------------------
Total: 18-12 [+9.52]

**Yezzir** · 02-03-12, 08:18 AM

I had £150 on Zopp, absolutely rolled. Easiest bet of the day.

**MUHerd37** · 02-03-12, 09:28 AM

Rufin took the 2nd set from Simon. Simon looks gassed. Simon was just broken in the 1st game of the 3rd set. Live bet Rufin if you can. Rufin is punishing him right now.

**Allen24** · 02-03-12, 09:30 AM

could this be a let down match for monfils

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 09:31 AM

Simon you putz. So much for that future looks like. I think Monfils wins, but he'll be pushed.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 09:32 AM

Rufin choking it right back.

Frog v. Frog.

**blackbeSSt** · 02-03-12, 09:36 AM

3 breaks to start the 3rd

**blackbeSSt** · 02-03-12, 09:44 AM

make that 4 breaks to start the 3rd

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 09:47 AM

I think Rufin is done now. He had his chances.

**MUHerd37** · 02-03-12, 10:06 AM

I hope nobody listened to me. Through the 1st two sets they each broke each other once (both in the 2nd set). Then a WTA match broke out in the 3rd set. 4 straight breaks to start and 5 out of 6. Rufin didn't hold his serve once in the 3rd set. How exactly do you get broken only once in 2 sets and then not hold serve once in the 3rd? He became a fukkin error machine.

**JennyNakos** · 02-03-12, 10:08 AM

Ruffin had his chances - nerves and inexperienced costed him. Should have won

**beefcake** · 02-03-12, 10:48 AM

Simon frustrates the other player into another loss...Vanilla bitch..

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 11:33 AM

No idea how Mahut blew this 2nd set and just needed him to win five games for the over.

**VikesPhanatic84** · 02-03-12, 11:35 AM

EP, what you think of youzhny?

**blackbeSSt** · 02-03-12, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by VikesPhanatic84

EP, what you think of youzhny?

he's already on him

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

ATP Zagreb: Youzhny -115 The Russian draws the big server Karlovic. Youzhny already has had an opportunity to see Karlovic in 2012, winning against him in three in Doha. Youzhny dominated two sets with Karlovic winning one in a tie break. Even though the court speed here is going to be quicker than Doha, I'd expect Youzhny's return game to be the difference maker. Youzhny's serve was solid when they last met and it's been good this week as well. If he serves well and gets into Karlovic's serve, Youzhny should work another win here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-03-12, 11:49 AM

Vina Del Mar MAD MATH

Monaco 2-0 [+200]
Monaco 2-1 [+275]

The MAD Math formula for me is taking the two exact results over the "ends in 3" result for a match because normally you are getting better odds ... as long as your expected winner does indeed win. Difficult to take much off Montanes through two rounds against lower level competition here. His results prior to coming to Chile were poor, losing to Starace & Riba on hard courts. Monaco pushed Kohlschreiber well in five @ Melbourne and blew Andreev off the court to open here. Monaco scuffled out the gate in 2011 with injury and never really seemed to find a groove. Montanes is a solid competitor on this surface and he beat Monaco twice in the past - both a long time ago, but this looks a good spot for Monaco to get out to a good start on his preferred surface in 2012. You wager either a unit on each result or half a unit, whatever you'd be comfortable with and if one hits, then you're guaranteed some profit. We'll see how it works.

CANCELLING THIS WAGER.

**VikesPhanatic84** · 02-03-12, 11:50 AM

Got it. Sorry I missed that. Thanks blackSST. Knowing he is on it also makes me feel better