EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #1156
    Check my spreadsheet.
    Comment
    • reformed
      SBR MVP
      • 11-18-10
      • 1384

      #1157
      I checked it out...wow you are streaky as hell.
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #1158
        2.18.11

        ATP MARSEILLES: SODERLING-LLODRA OVER 23.5 [-113]
        This might be the match of the tournament. The Soderling-Mahut match provided plenty of potential for today's match. Two very tight sets with Soderling showing the better nerve. Llodra has been oustanding at this tournament the last two years. His serve is difficult to break, much like Soderling. Their three previous head-2-heads provide insight into today. Expect a tight match and a potential over in two with three sets a good shot if both are serving well.

        WTA DUBAI: KUZNETSOVA -110
        Kuznetsova leads the head-2 head comfortably. Radwanska is in good form this week, but the Russian shows great fighting spirit and the ability to win these matches somehow, someway.
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #1159
          Originally posted by reformed
          I checked it out...wow you are streaky as hell.
          Damn right. You fade it when it's bad baby. You ride it when it's good.
          Comment
          • lasker
            SBR MVP
            • 01-27-10
            • 1683

            #1160
            Unreal. Mannarino squanders two match points (both break points), then gets broken on his serve, then gets three break points to force a tiebreaker and squanders all three of them. Now he's going to lose focus in the third set and get crushed.

            This is all my fault... it's happening because I'm backing Mannarino. Should have tailed you on the over.
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #1161
              That was what I was afraid of backing Mannarino. Hewitt is like f-ing Houdini, finds a way to win even when he isn't playing the best.
              Comment
              • lasker
                SBR MVP
                • 01-27-10
                • 1683

                #1162
                yup, Mannarino's already broken on his first service game in the third. fml.
                Comment
                • lasker
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-27-10
                  • 1683

                  #1163
                  EP, do you like Peer +4.5 or would you stay away? It looks tempting to me, but I'm usually better off fading my intuition.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #1164
                    I don't think Peer is a good matchup for Wozniacki. Woz is playing for #1. I'd skip it personally.
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #1165
                      Some line changes to the picks I've got made. Waited till this morning to see what happened. Booked, now let's cook up some winnas.
                      Comment
                      • betme
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 10-08-09
                        • 998

                        #1166
                        EP what ya think Pennetta going against Kley ? i'm feeling Penn can take 2 straight sets
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #1167
                          DEUCE: TSONGA + DEL POTRO [-122]
                          Tsonga draws Youzhny in Marseilles in what could be a tremendous match. Both are in pretty solid form, but Tsonga has a bit more to his arsenal than the Russian. The ability to produce cheap points off a blistering serve could be a difference maker today for Tsonga. The big thing I THINK is consistency. If Tsonga can make the points quicker and not engage in long rallies where Youzhny's consistency may wear him down, I THINK Tsonga can advance through today. Pairing with Del Potro who draws Russell. Russell won't be easy as his athleticism and ability to run down balls will be a big switch for Del Potro after playing some big serving players in the first two rounds. Still, Russell does not have anything to hurt Del Potro, so if the Argentine takes care of his serve - this match should be on his racket to win.

                          ATP MARSEILLES: TURSUNOV +138
                          The Russian is playing with a great deal of confidence to start of 2011 and draws Melzer today. Melzer has been very good on the indoor surface in the past year, but not immune to losing. His no show against Cilic still sticks out in my mind from Rotterdam. Tursunov meanwhile has been serving well and has shown a good nerve working through some tough opponents this week. I really think his solid performance against Berdych in Rotterdam has carried his confidence level upward. I THINK Melzer may have a bit more consistency to his ground game, but I also THINK that Tursunov brings a little more pop and ability on-serve to cover up any inconsistencies with his ground game. Melzer did show a solid serve vs. Seppi, but in looking back at his losses in recent times - it's the serve that seems to desert him when he struggles. THINK Tursunov is worth a toss today at this price.
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #1168
                            Originally posted by betme
                            EP what ya think Pennetta going against Kley ? i'm feeling Penn can take 2 straight sets
                            I was actually thinking about Kleybanova until I saw the head-2-head stats and the way Pennetta easily handled her last Summer in two tournaments on hard courts. I think I'd trust Pennetta more as Kleybanova seems to throw out clunkers a bit more often than Pennetta. End of the day though I decided to pass on this match because it is very much a coin flip.
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #1169
                              Totals Tracker: 12-10 [+3.13]

                              KUZNETSOVA-RADWANKSA UNDER 21.5 [+105]

                              There's a couple other ones that are close to fitting into the criteria, but are just outside right now. Both are the night matches in Memphis, so I'll wait and see where the chalk goes on those.
                              Comment
                              • betme
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 10-08-09
                                • 998

                                #1170
                                ya i don't think it be any different than matches before...Pennetta is in good form now.. i'm gonna take a shot at her -135 thanks EP
                                Comment
                                • koscheckbaby
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-05-10
                                  • 1314

                                  #1171
                                  Opinions on the big serving dick, Raonic, versus Kendrick today? I hate Raonic so much that I been backing him lately to not be annoyed so much by his stupid look, overhype, and unreturnable serve. The price line seems low to me. I researched and saw that Kendrick beat him last year, but Raonic is clearly at a different level just based on his serve and past couple wins. Kendrick beat a washed up Blake to get here.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #1172
                                    Raonic should be useful in parlays. Kendrick is like an older version of Raonic with far less game. Uses a big serve, but his ground strokes are not in Raonic's class. Fatigue shouldn't be an issue with Raonic IMO because this figures to be another match void of many long rallies.
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #1173
                                      Kuznetsova-Radwanska. 7 games played. 5 breaks.
                                      Comment
                                      • 757sFinest
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 09-23-10
                                        • 885

                                        #1174
                                        The over in Tsonga/Youzhny looks good. I think Youshny can get a set. Thoughts EP? Oh yeah, milos looks like a goober. He looks 8foot 12 in those shorts.
                                        Comment
                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-06-06
                                          • 71662

                                          #1175
                                          Not certain there. If Tsonga's serve is on, he's capable of winning in straight sets or vice versa if Tsonga no shows. The UNDER on that one now falls onto the Totals Tracker as the OVER is juiced at 23 [-145]

                                          TOTALS TRACKER: TSONGA-YOUZHNY UNDER 23 [+115]
                                          Comment
                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-06-06
                                            • 71662

                                            #1176
                                            This Kuznetsova-Radwanska match is fukking brutal. About to see the 8th break in 12 games in the 1st set.
                                            Comment
                                            • 757sFinest
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 09-23-10
                                              • 885

                                              #1177
                                              Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                              Not certain there. If Tsonga's serve is on, he's capable of winning in straight sets or vice versa if Tsonga no shows. The UNDER on that one now falls onto the Totals Tracker as the OVER is juiced at 23 [-145]

                                              TOTALS TRACKER: TSONGA-YOUZHNY UNDER 23 [+115]

                                              Well holy shite. It's a -145 now? ..........115 J-W.Tsonga Games Won/M.Youzhny Games Won Over 23 -118*.....at 10:49 this morning. Damn, it jumpe3d that much in 33 minutes. wow
                                              Comment
                                              • koscheckbaby
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 04-05-10
                                                • 1314

                                                #1178
                                                Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                This Kuznetsova-Radwanska match is fukking brutal. About to see the 8th break in 12 games in the 1st set.
                                                Just when I forget why I can't bet on women's tennis, I'm reminded badly after playing Kuznetsova. Kuznetsova is clearly the superior player. She is chasing Radwanska all over the court, overpowering her. But everytime she has a chance to put the ball away for the point, she makes an unforced error. Terrible tennis. The women players do this so much, even the good ones. The only guys that really bother me like this are Cilic and Verdasco. Unforced errors are so annoying.
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #1179
                                                  Yep. Happens a lot with big servers. Overs are popular. That's why I started that totals tracker though because it seems indicative of times to go against the public. Not always right obviously, but it never pays to go for that high chalk on totals. At least you got a good price.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                    • 71662

                                                    #1180
                                                    Kuznetsova somehow won that set.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 757sFinest
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 09-23-10
                                                      • 885

                                                      #1181
                                                      Agreed with the high chalk on totals. I've been tracking along with you. So far it's a winner. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out over the long haul. Slow and steady.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • WIZARDOFBEANTOWN
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 03-18-10
                                                        • 13389

                                                        #1182
                                                        GOOD LUCK TODAY EP byTHE WAY MY FAVORITE ROLL TOM CRUISE EVER PLAYED! GREAT PIC!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #1183
                                                          DEUCE #2: CHELA + NAVARRO [+105]
                                                          Chela at home in Argentina looks to be in solid form. Montanes still rounding into form it appears. Hard to go against the home standing Argie. Hradecka has been superb on the indoor surface in the last two weeks. Navarro's serve drives me insane because it is weak, but she knows how to win on dirt. Han got a nice scalp on Goerges, but her form has been inconsistent this year. On clay, she's got a nice record but it's loaded with wins in qualifying from several years ago. Navarro at this level finds a way when she is right.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • koscheckbaby
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-05-10
                                                            • 1314

                                                            #1184
                                                            This scumbag Raonic is going to lose to Robert Kendrick today. I knew Raonic wasn't that good, but this is a terrible loss. He's making errors like a WTA player now and mooping around like a little girl.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 757sFinest
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 09-23-10
                                                              • 885

                                                              #1185
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                                                              hmmmmmmmmm...wozniacki
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 71662

                                                                #1186
                                                                Originally posted by koscheckbaby
                                                                This scumbag Raonic is going to lose to Robert Kendrick today. I knew Raonic wasn't that good, but this is a terrible loss. He's making errors like a WTA player now and mooping around like a little girl.
                                                                I'm pretty sure they still play three sets.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • koscheckbaby
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-05-10
                                                                  • 1314

                                                                  #1187
                                                                  I wish I could break both these players' faces. Who the **** is Robert Kendrick to enter a semi-final? And why is this dickbag, Raonic, who has victories over Verdasco and Stepanek this week absolutely helpless against this jerkoff's serve. The only reason Raonic won the first set was a lucky break that he did nothing.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • koscheckbaby
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 04-05-10
                                                                    • 1314

                                                                    #1188
                                                                    Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                                    I'm pretty sure they still play three sets.
                                                                    I dunno man. Raonic is regularly giving up points on his serve and making UE. Also, he looks helpless even against Kendricks second serve. I can't see him winning in the 3rd unless he gets another lucky break or two or a tiebreak.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #1189
                                                                      It's just one set. Kendrick's serve isn't exactly known for it's great consistency. I'd take Raonic's ability on serve any day to see him through.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • koscheckbaby
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-05-10
                                                                        • 1314

                                                                        #1190
                                                                        If anyone has access to live in-game betting, get on Kendrick to win the match. Stepanek only forced a 3rd set because of luck yesterday. Today, Raonic is being thoroughly outplayed and looks helpless to break serve. He only got one break in the first since Kendrick missed easy volleys. He's yet to consistantly get points off Kendrick's serve AND Kendrick is getting his first serve back in play.
                                                                        Comment
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