EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

iceman8847 · 02-21-11, 06:33 AM

E/P 36 My book has Dimtrov
@-155 Betus does your book still have him at +105

noober · 02-21-11, 06:57 AM

Nope. Huge money came on him.

Btw, it's interesting that Grigor said he won't play Davis Cup for Bulgaria which is pretty bad. Other top players like Baghdatis and Niemienen, whose teams suck big time play every time anyway.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 08:17 AM

What a horrid showing by Dimitrov ... this again though is why money movement in tennis is not something that should be regularly followed IMO unless you want to get buried. Pick who you think will win and stick with it. If you base your picks on where the money goes alone, I think you'll hate life. And once the lines swing that much, I wouldn't touch a pick in that sort of match.

shari91 · 02-21-11, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

What a horrid showing by Dimitrov ... this again though is why money movement in tennis is not something that should be regularly followed IMO unless you want to get buried. Pick who you think will win and stick with it. If you base your picks on where the money goes alone, I think you'll hate life. And once the lines swing that much, I wouldn't touch a pick in that sort of match.

I just posted almost the same thing in my thread. Him and Nieminen today - and I had them both before the line dropped.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 08:27 AM

I've noticed a lot here early this year that the money has been totally off. Wawrinka the other day when he played Chela. Del Potro against Raonic in San Jose I think was another. The only one that I can recall panning out was Soderling over Llodra.

iceman8847 · 02-21-11, 09:19 AM

E/P 36 Dimitrov didn't put up much of a fight I had 3 units on him, I was thinking of chasing with another 3 units
On Bartoli is he worth a try ?

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 09:21 AM

She's got a chance, wouldn't call it a sure thing or anything like that. Regular size bet for me, but I don't do big tennis bets anyhow.

Ben Franklin · 02-21-11, 09:31 AM

wow bartoli is now at +125.when i checked 2 hours ago she was at +110 but the line remains at +2. not big on tennis tbh but is something goin here eagles? Is bartoli a better play because of this?

iceman8847 · 02-21-11, 09:32 AM

E/P I've been trying give you points but a message comes up that says This person may not be able to receive points do you know what's up ?

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 09:34 AM

As a non-pro, I think you can only give 2 pts. per day. So if you gave them out already, you would not have pts to give that day.

Not reading anything into line movement. As outlined above, it tells nothing in tennis.

iceman8847 · 02-21-11, 09:45 AM

Thanks E/P Berdych is -5 @-130 point spread should he cover this or a no play?

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 10:07 AM

I don't bet Chardy matches because the dude is a constant mental fukk who pulls results out of his ass when you don't think he should and folds when you think he should win, but ...

nothing in his 2011 indicates he'll show much today. 5 is a lot though. I'd probably leave it. He may cover it easily, but I could also see it being a push or something less.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 10:23 AM

This Bartoli-Kleybanova match is WTA at its finest. Bartoli had gained control and now yacked it up to be back on-serve.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 10:33 AM

And then Bartoli comes back to take the set by breaking Kleybanova. Rollercoaster of loathe. That is the WTA.

shari91 · 02-21-11, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

This Bartoli-Kleybanova match is WTA at its finest. Bartoli had gained control and now yacked it up to be back on-serve.

She finally won that damn set. Now if she can keep her DFs under control and grind Kleyb down she's got this.

shari91 · 02-21-11, 10:38 AM

Bloody hell. #6

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 10:48 AM

Looking good right now up 3-0. Of course she was up 5-3 last set and managed to make that interesting. Kleybanova is absolutely someone I will fade when she is a favorite against a good player. Girl reminds me of Chardy.

yisman · 02-21-11, 11:45 AM

Gasquet is just better than Dmitrov.
I thought the line was a little strange when Gasquet was barely favored last night, and then I hear about the line move.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 11:48 AM

ATP DELRAY BEACH QUALIFYING: DANCEVIC -160
Frank The Tank up against Falla in a bid to make the main draw. Both have had a relatively easy time through two qualifying matches. Liked that Dancevic was able to work past Lacko last round even without his best serve. Falla was solid on-serve in his two matches with very few hiccups. Outdoor hard courts haven't been great for Falla with big servers even a worse match-up for him. This one simply comes down to serve. Dancevic has a bigger one, but consistency is sometimes a question for the Canadian. When he's getting in a good percentage of 1st serves, he is difficult to beat. The Delray Beach courts seem to play pretty quick, so that should help him here.

andini · 02-21-11, 12:41 PM

what time does that matchup start?

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 12:58 PM

In the next 15 minutes or so. Match before it on that court just ended.

reformed · 02-21-11, 01:10 PM

it might be beneficial to go against the money. I think you end up getting good value where there is a big money swing.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 01:19 PM

ATP DELRAY BEACH: MELLO -120
Mello draws Schuettler who is thoroughly unbackable to me at this point. 0-5 to start 2011 for the 34-year old German. On this surface, he lost to Soeda, Verdasco & Gabashvili this season. This is Mello's better surface which would seem odd to the casual fan I THINK in that he's a Brazilian and that normal equals clay court success. Mello is 5-1 on outdoor courts this season with his one loss a 5 setter in Australia. Generally, it's better to back him in Brazil where he practically owns any hard court tournament ran there in the past year - but I THINK this is a good spot to take him. Don't read too much into his loss to Blake last week or Schuettler's win over him last year as indoor hard courts are where he really struggles.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by reformed

it might be beneficial to go against the money. I think you end up getting good value where there is a big money swing.

Personally I am disregarding it. I have swayed a little from that this season and it's cost me for the most part. Generally, I like breaking down the match - taking my pick and letting it ride. Trying to figure out what money movement means in tennis is a losing proposition.

raiderhater9572 · 02-21-11, 01:33 PM

Maybe it is a losing proposition but where is the best site to track line movement and money bet on each side

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 02:11 PM

I always seem to lose on Dancevic. Never serves well on the days I pick him. Shitass.

beefcake · 02-21-11, 04:09 PM

Isner is going down tonight...

koscheckbaby · 02-21-11, 04:25 PM

I took a parlay with Querrey today. Thought he had it in the bag after winning first set. Come back and he's down a break in the 3rd. Jeez

Thoughts on just parlaying some heavy faves tomorrow? Novak over Llodra, Roddick over Sela, and Fish over Phau?

Mikail · 02-21-11, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

I took a parlay with Querrey today. Thought he had it in the bag after winning first set. Come back and he's down a break in the 3rd. Jeez

He won.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

Isner is going down tonight...

I'll give you some points if he does, but Gabashvili blows. Need some Brazilian flags of something down in Delray Beach to make Mello wake up. Sheesh. Getting slapped around by Schuettler?! Looks like a great start to the week.

thirtytwo · 02-21-11, 04:55 PM

EP did you look through the total lines today? How about this ridiculous line in Acapulco, Pinny has OU set at 19 games in Ungur/Ferrer match and its priced at +145/-170 right now

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 05:11 PM

WTA ACAPULCO: PARRA-SANTONJA +110
I might be a dipshit, well I am a dipshit, but I THINK taking Bammer with no matches on dirt yet this season as a favorite is no way to live. Bammer has little match play in her 2011 portfolio with some qualifying wins in Sydney, but 0-2 in main draws this season + getting drubbed in Fed Cup play by Azarenka. Parra-Santonja meanwhile has sniffed the dirt courts the past two weeks. Admittedly her form is a bit rough with a 1-2 mark, including last week's surprising loss to a qualifier in three sets in the opening round at Bogota. Santonja's problems usually stem from an inability to land her 1st serve and double faults. Still, her dirt resume reads better over Bammer in the past few years. This figures to be a match where she who lands more 1st serves has the best shot to win. Given that both can struggle on serve, I THINK I'll take a shot with the girl who already is acclimated a bit more to match play on the surface.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by thirtytwo

EP did you look through the total lines today? How about this ridiculous line in Acapulco, Pinny has OU set at 19 games in Ungur/Ferrer match and its priced at +145/-170 right now

Yeah I saw that. Gotta get the Totals Tracker out for this week.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-21-11, 05:14 PM

Mello starting to roll now. Someone must have flagged up.

BernardMadoff · 02-21-11, 05:28 PM

Mello finally waking up for us bud, hope it finishes this off.